Tropical Storm Fernanda At EPAC

[cycloneye]

Here is the rally that clfenwi said yesterday was going to start. The EPAC only has formed 5 named storms so that basin is in a pace for a below normal season.

[WeatherEmperor]

its about time. EPAC is waaaaay behind.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

its about time. EPAC is waaaaay behind.

<RICKY>

It has been very quiet in that basin for the past 3 weeks.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP972005) ON 20050808 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050808 1800 050809 0600 050809 1800 050810 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 111.2W 13.8N 113.1W 14.4N 115.0W 15.3N 116.9W
BAMM 13.5N 111.2W 14.1N 113.4W 14.8N 115.5W 15.7N 117.6W
LBAR 13.5N 111.2W 13.9N 113.1W 14.7N 115.3W 15.5N 117.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050810 1800 050811 1800 050812 1800 050813 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 118.8W 18.5N 122.3W 19.9N 125.1W 20.3N 128.1W
BAMM 16.4N 119.8W 17.8N 123.8W 18.1N 126.7W 17.8N 129.6W
LBAR 16.1N 120.8W 18.3N 126.3W 20.6N 130.8W 20.6N 133.3W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 111.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 109.2W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 106.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[clfenwi]

dons the rally cap!

[Rashid]

it seems like the EPAC has been dominated by weak tropical storms for the past 3 seasons (with the exception of hurricane here and there).

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP972005) ON 20050809 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 0000 050809 1200 050810 0000 050810 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 112.0W 14.7N 114.1W 15.7N 116.1W 16.7N 118.2W
BAMM 14.1N 112.0W 14.9N 114.3W 15.8N 116.6W 16.7N 118.9W
LBAR 14.1N 112.0W 14.9N 113.9W 15.9N 116.1W 17.1N 118.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 0000 050812 0000 050813 0000 050814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 120.3W 19.0N 124.0W 19.1N 127.7W 18.6N 131.8W
BAMM 17.4N 121.2W 18.1N 125.6W 17.8N 129.6W 16.8N 133.5W
LBAR 18.2N 121.4W 21.0N 126.0W 23.6N 128.8W 26.3N 127.7W
SHIP 44KTS 45KTS 43KTS 43KTS
DSHP 44KTS 45KTS 43KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 112.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 110.3W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 108.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


I looks like this system will be another tropical storm but no hurricane and the EPAC continues to have weak systems forming.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks very good this morning. Large area of deep convection. But it will likely be moving into cooler water over the next few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this is not careful it will run right into cold water.



000

WHXX01 KMIA 090830

CHGE77



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP972005) ON 20050809 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050809 0600 050809 1800 050810 0600 050810 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.2N 113.0W 14.9N 115.1W 15.7N 117.0W 16.6N 119.1W

BAMM 14.2N 113.0W 15.0N 115.3W 15.8N 117.4W 16.5N 119.6W

LBAR 14.2N 113.0W 15.0N 114.9W 15.9N 116.9W 17.0N 119.6W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050811 0600 050812 0600 050813 0600 050814 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.5N 121.1W 18.6N 124.7W 18.7N 128.3W 18.0N 131.7W

BAMM 17.1N 121.8W 17.8N 125.8W 17.7N 129.3W 17.1N 132.5W

LBAR 18.1N 122.1W 20.4N 126.9W 22.5N 130.2W 24.4N 130.4W

SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 51KTS 47KTS

DSHP 51KTS 54KTS 51KTS 47KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 113.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 111.2W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 109.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[cycloneye]

The first Advisorie will come at 11 AM EDT.

[Hurricanehink]

Well, we still have a good lead. 9-6 isn't bad for early August. FYI, the Atlantic and WPAC are tied right now at 9-9!

[WeatherEmperor]

Well, we still have a good lead. 9-6 isn't bad for early August. FYI, the Atlantic and WPAC are tied right now at 9-9!

amazing. who would have thought?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 091437
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500Z TUE AUG 09 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 115.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 115.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.4N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.9N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.6N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.2N 126.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.1N 129.8W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 133.9W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

FORECASTER ROTH

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO
THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1313Z SHOWS A FIELD OF 25 KT WIND VECTORS WITH
SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT VECTORS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5
FROM SAB AND TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THIS COMBINED WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES YIELDS
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP LURE THE
DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP STEER THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE PASSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. IF
THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE GREATER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS
TONIGHT... WHICH WOULD STILL KEEP THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL PACE.

FORECASTER ROTH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.2N 115.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.4N 116.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 14.9N 118.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 15.6N 120.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 16.3N 122.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.2N 126.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.1N 129.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 133.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[HURAKAN]

FERNANDA IS AROUND THE CORNER.

[WeatherEmperor]

FERNANDA IS AROUND THE CORNER.

I like those exotic hispanic names.

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks very good on imagery. Has a strong and obvious center of circulation. Looks more like a hurricane than a tropical depression.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

Looks equally impressive when visibly viewed as well.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/VIS/20.jpg

Water vapor seems fair enough for development.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/WV/20.jpg

It would be interesting for sure if that had formed in the Atlantic!

[HURAKAN]

[Scorpion]

Looking nice, but so did Irene when it was still an invest. Cold water will likely destroy it.

[MiamiensisWx]

Has an eastern Pacific system ever made it across the entire central area of the Pacific? I know it sounds unlikely, but has it ever happened?