QUIKSCAT says wide open wave

[Derek Ortt]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas99.png

this should be killed off at 11 a.m. as there is only a trough axis, with dissipating convection

[Skyline]

Do you think it will remain as such?

[Derek Ortt]

the QS has some tyoe of circ at 16N, making me question it somewhat. However, based upon visible imagery, this is quite possible no longer a cyclone this morning and conditions may not become favorable for a while. I'll wait until I or Cangialosi look at more data before making any final conclusions

[Hyperstorm]

I mentioned this yesterday as it was evident that it was beginning to deteriorate. Each passing day the LLC has become smaller and tighter, so it was predictable what might be happening now. The system never re-developed a new LLC, which could have kept it going longer.

I'm still not sure if the center is there or not, as it looks like convection has covered it. But, looking at the low-level clouds on the south side, they are not moving to the east as well as before, indicating a spin down. I will wait a few more hours to confirm this. I think the NHC will wait until 5pm at the earliest to dissipate Irene, IF the LLC has fizzled.

[Skyline]

Something is going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... S85/20.jpg


How accurate are these 85 gig pics and loops at distinguishing the real LLC?

If it is the black, then I can indeed see it unwinding, slowing down and relocating. And all that dry air from the wv loops.

But there is some definite inflow and swirl on the IR and even some outflow.
Who knows?

[weatherwindow]

assuming the tpc has access to the same pass, why no mention in the 500am adv and discussion?....none of the telltale language..."disorganized", "difficulty locating center" etc normally a prelude to "opening" a circulation. i would have expected some hint of this in the 500am products..was this pass available prior to that time?....rich

[Derek Ortt]

pass was not available then, came in just after the advisory package was issued. They stated that they were hoping for a new pass to determine its intensity, and it looks like they got their wish

[Frank2]

No, I don't think it was - we'll see what the 11 a.m. advisory package has to say.

Frank

[Hyperstorm]

Analyzing the latest satellite images it appears that we're seeing the developments of a MLC right under the weakening convection. Here's an image I made depicting this:



The red circle indicates where the MLC is probably going to develop. The yellow lines on the SE and SW indicate where the inflow is coming from. The inflow to the SW is relating to the old center which appears to be becoming diffused. What's surprising is that there's inflow coming in from the SE to the East of where the center we're tracking is. This indicates that we're seeing some structural changes in the storm. Also, notice there's outflow developing to the NW of the storm, which is something we hadn't seen before with Irene.

Today will be a key day to the development of Irene. That being said, all factors are there for this MLC to gradually develop and spin down to the surface, giving new life to this tenacious cyclone.

I'll be watching this very interesting situation...

[sma10]

Note that for the 12Z tropical model run the NHC initialized the center south and EAST from their 5am position. Is it because they think the center has relocated to this position OR because they believe it will relocate to this position in time?

[jrod]

I just looked at the quikscat pass and the latest satellite and agree that it is an open wave.

Kind of funny how the convection increases and the LLC dissapears.

[swimaster20]

I just looked at the quikscat pass and the latest satellite and agree that it is an open wave.

Kind of funny how the convection increases and the LLC dissapears.

What else should we expext from Irene?? j/j

[wxwatcher91]

so would this actually be a sign of organization considering the center is now reforming closer to the convection?

here is what I kinda see happening. comments wanted because I have little confidence I drew this right

[txwatcher91]

I don't think Irene is done yet. I think she is trying to fool us that she is weakening while she is doing the opposite and forming a new center. Only time will tell.

[Anonymous]

The same was said about Emily...

[Hyperstorm]

so would this actually be a sign of organization considering the center is now reforming closer to the convection?

here is what I kinda see happening. comments wanted because I have little confidence I drew this right

Yes, I'm growing more confident that we'll see a MLC develop by later this afternoon. In fact, there are signs of high-level turning going on in the convection right now. The circle you have for a new center formation is likely too far north and too tight. It will likely be farther south and more broad similar to what I circled above.

This is very interesting as these are signs that there could be more intensification than currently forecasted...

[Scorpion]

Wow, not good news. If it takes the BAM track Florida will have to watch out.

[wxwatcher91]

latest IR... is that little pop-up of convection on the west side a sign that the shear is starting to let up and allowing Irene to eventually close off the circulation?

[Hurricanehink]

Could the circulation be so small and tight that it couldn't be found on QS? The same happened with Emily, IIRC.

[Frank2]

Oy - well, they don't call meteorology an inexact science for nothing!

Earlier this morning the system looked like it was finished, but now it seems to be making a comback.

Oh, well,

Frank