The ridge will hold.....

[WeatherEmperor]

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

I dont know about you guys, but that is a very nice model map.

<RICKY>

[CronkPSU]

sorry about the size, not sure how to make the image smaller

you can get the last five model runs from this site

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

frame 1 is the newest, frame 5 is the oldest

[WeatherEmperor]

sorry about the size, not sure how to make the image smaller

you can get the last five model runs from this site

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

frame 1 is the newest, frame 5 is the oldest

no no dont apologize. its an awsome map graphic and site too.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

yeah, thanks for the map...i really looks like a ridge will be building in and holding...

[jrod]

You know the two cat. 5s on record to hit Florida were both insignificant features until they approached the state. While an EC landfall still sounds unlikely and a major hurricane or even a hurricane from Irene also sounds unlikely, I think it is possible that Irene may eventually find an enviroment that is favorable for rapid intensification.

I dont want to cry wolf but with the westward shift in the NHC's forecast I do think Irene will be a storm that we will be watching closely.

[Ivanhater]

yeah, thanks for the map...i really looks like a ridge will be building in and holding...

not to mention , the ridge will be getting stronger according to those models

[WeatherEmperor]

Im curious as to which Irene will have had the bigger impact if any. Irene of 1999 or Irene 2005.

<RICKY>

[beachbum_al]

So does this mean that we are out of the lull period and the GOM and East Coast need to be on the watch for unexpected and uninvited guests.

[Scorpion]

Most likely Irene 2005 if this track pans out .

[mascpa]

I agree with Scorpion. I don't like the way this storm is setting up. NHC says it is beginning to get better organized and there is alot of good environment for intensification in front of her. And my hurricane antennae are beginning to tingle ... Lets all keep a close eye on her!

[jrod]

And my hurricane antennae are beginning to tingle ... Lets all keep a close eye on her!

Mine is too.

[skufful]

Just wondering, any link to that model site?

[cycloneye]

Just wondering, any link to that model site?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[seaswing]

So does this mean that we are out of the lull period and the GOM and East Coast need to be on the watch for unexpected and uninvited guests.

And what time period are we looking at if it does pan out and become an EC threat? how many days in your estimation? in other words, when do we need to start paying CLOSE attention?

[storm4u]

So does this mean that we are out of the lull period and the GOM and East Coast need to be on the watch for unexpected and uninvited guests.

And what time period are we looking at if it does pan out and become an EC threat? how many days in your estimation? in other words, when do we need to start paying CLOSE attention?

well start paying attention now to the forecast! Yes it will change but it is always good to be prepared!! If it were to hit the east coast i would say 5 to 7 days depending on the speed!!

[gatorcane]

[dixiebreeze]

As I recall (I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong the BAMM has been pretty reliable so far this season.

[Marilyn]

should NC be worried about this storm?

[mascpa]

Worried? Not at this point. However, the entire east coast from FLA to VA and maybe even farther north needs to monitor this developing storm.

[gatorcane]

yes, I think many people have written this off but will be surprised to have seen what has happened recently...