TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Marilyn]

What are the chances of this hitting the EC say from Fl, up to the Carolinas ? Just alittle concern and curious

[wxman57]

Ok, I've constructed a McIdas loop of Irene, as you probably won't be able to find a better visible loop online. I'll add pictures through the day.

Be warned, it's not for dial-up users.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopAug9.gif

[storms in NC]

Ok, I've constructed a McIdas loop of Irene, as you probably won't be able to find a better visible loop online. I'll add pictures through the day.

Be warned, it's not for dial-up users.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopAug9.gif

Thank so much. Good Job

[wxman57]

Just added an 11th image to the loop. It's uploading the new loop now.

[Skyline]

Hey thanks wxman57 for all the cool photos.

[artist]

it is not looping for me - anyone else having this problem?

[wxman57]

it is not looping for me - anyone else having this problem?

It's a simple animated gif, but each image is over 1/2 megabyte. Give it a lot of time to load.

Just added a 12th image in there.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopAug9.gif

Oh, and I still cannot see a circulation center in there. Nothing that stands out, anyway.

[artist]

thanks!

[MiamiensisWx]

There is not a defined center, but it seems to be spiraling around something, or at least trying to spiral. It clearly seems to be trying to form a center. It's just my view based on the imagery, though.

[baygirl_1]

It appears that the individual bursts of convection have rotations, but not a really organized central circulation... yet. Could it be that Irene had naked circulation for so long she doesn't know ho to behave with actual convection/storms?!

[jabber]

It appears that the individual bursts of convection have rotations, but not a really organized central circulation... yet. Could it be that Irene had naked circulation for so long she doesn't know ho to behave with actual convection/storms?!

I guess she is a confused not-so-naked swirl right now. Looks to be an interesting week ahead. My gut call is she get close to the Carolinias but then curves out.

[clfenwi]

UKMET model's latest offering

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 53.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.08.2005 22.2N 53.5W WEAK
00UTC 10.08.2005 22.3N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2005 23.7N 57.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2005 24.7N 59.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2005 26.1N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2005 27.7N 64.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2005 28.8N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2005 30.2N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2005 31.1N 64.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2005 31.4N 64.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2005 32.2N 64.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2005 33.6N 64.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.08.2005 35.5N 64.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

for those who want to see it graphically, the image at http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif is updated. UKMET is the one running due north near the end of the forecast period.

[cycloneye]

091722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.9 53.6 265./ 8.0
6 22.2 54.8 284./10.9
12 22.4 55.7 283./ 8.8
18 22.8 56.7 293./10.2
24 24.0 57.4 329./13.4
30 24.9 58.7 304./15.3
36 25.5 59.9 298./12.0
42 26.1 61.0 299./12.2
48 26.9 62.4 299./13.8
54 27.6 63.1 315./10.4
60 28.2 64.0 304./ 9.9


12z GFDL dissipates Irene at 60 hours.

[wxman57]

Took a lunch break. Back with an added image to the McIdas loop:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopaug9.gif

[WindRunner]

Well, all the models seem to suggest a good chance of east coast landfall, I'd say somewhere between Melbourne and FL state line or Charleston to Norfolk. But that's my take on the models as they appear to be split between a due west and west to northwest track.

[WeatherEmperor]

It looks like the 18Z UKMET model shoots Irene WNW and then straight North in time.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[wxman57]

Loop is updated with a 1745Z image:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopAug9.gif

Still don't see a circulation. I'm not sure what to trust in the way of model data with this system. If it develops, it may go more to the west as some are suggesting. If it doesn't develop, then it may tend to turn northwest to north with time. But it may not be able to recurve out to sea.

[sma10]

Not sure if this has been discussed yet, but anyone have any thoughts as to why NHC ran a tropical model suite centered at 23.0N 75.0W?

[WeatherEmperor]

Not sure if this has been discussed yet, but anyone have any thoughts as to why NHC ran a tropical model suite centered at 23.0N 75.0W?

absolutely no clue. a few days ago they did the same with an old invest I believe Invest 95 that died out a long time ago. Perhaps its just for testing purposes to make sure everything is working find I guess.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Not sure if this has been discussed yet, but anyone have any thoughts as to why NHC ran a tropical model suite centered at 23.0N 75.0W?

TROPICAL STORM NONAME (AL892005) ON 20050809 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 1200 050810 0000 050810 1200 050811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 75.0W 23.7N 75.9W 24.3N 76.9W 25.0N 78.1W
BAMM 23.0N 75.0W 23.7N 76.6W 24.5N 78.2W 25.5N 79.7W
A98E 23.0N 75.0W 23.8N 76.7W 25.0N 77.9W 26.6N 78.9W
LBAR 23.0N 75.0W 24.0N 76.5W 25.1N 78.0W 26.1N 79.1W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 1200 050812 1200 050813 1200 050814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 79.2W 26.7N 81.6W 27.7N 84.2W 28.7N 86.9W
BAMM 26.4N 80.9W 28.5N 83.1W 30.3N 84.9W 32.3N 85.8W
A98E 28.1N 80.0W 31.6N 81.5W 34.6N 81.7W 38.1N 77.4W
LBAR 27.4N 80.3W 29.6N 82.3W 32.6N 83.4W 36.1N 82.2W
SHIP 59KTS 68KTS 71KTS 70KTS
DSHP 41KTS 34KTS 31KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 73.2W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 71.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM


If you are referring to this it is only a test as the header says AL89 instead of AL90.