New center

[MWatkins]

Hey this seems to be the best place to throw this in:

To illustrate the 12Z GFS’s out-to-lunchness…according to this model Irene will be at 25N tomorrow afternoon! Here are the 2AM and 2PM tomorrow forecast positions from the model…(actually this is the 12z interpolated from the 18Z position but you can see what it's doing):

AVNI, 12, 23.6N, 55.8W
AVNI, 24, 24.9N, 57.5W

Don’t see that happenin.

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

wow slow down GFS. Dont hurt nobody with that. lol

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

I agree on the visible being better...But...My point here is how far off the TPC Plots were compared to where our main ball of convection is headed...

Yes, but the plots are for the center, not for a blob of convection.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I agree on the visible being better...But...My point here is how far off the TPC Plots were compared to where our main ball of convection is headed...

Yes, but the plots are for the center, not for a blob of convection.

Do you see the center N of the convection? I sure don't

[x-y-no]

I still see the center at around 22.0N, 54.0W. I think the IR blob is fooling some people as the convection spreads S and W. Most definitely continues on a W or slightly S of West course. with the increasing convection and much better organization, I would expect reclassification to TS status this evening.

Hmm ... well ... I could be wrong, I suppose. Not because I've been fooled by IR, though, because I haven't even looked at IR since this morning.

I see the center you're talking about, of course, but I'm not convinced the southern (westerly wind) portion is at the surface.

I think the surface circulation is still broad and extends further south under that convection. This is all based on squinting at all too few visible low-level clouds (probably coupled with somewhat more conjecture than is warranted).

The center you're pointing out is moving at something like 240 degrees, though, so if I'm right it'll stack up with a more west moving LLC soon, with a nice big blob of convection at hand.

Jan

[MWatkins]

One other thing to throw in...notice all of the popcorn convection starting to go in the previously very dry...stable airmass out to the west of the storm. This is a pretty good indicator that the environment out in front of the cyclone is starting to moderate some...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MW

[mvtrucking]

I don't know how you all can see a center in that. I guess it takes time to begin to get the knack. Because I sure can't. (1845 )

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html