Tropical Storm Fernanda At EPAC

Hyperstorm · #21 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 11:52 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Has an eastern Pacific system ever made it across the entire central area of the Pacific? I know it sounds unlikely, but has it ever happened?

It's very unusual, but there have been several systems which have crossed into the Central Pacific Ocean and into the Western Pacific.

The most notable cyclone was Hurricane John in 1994, which formed off the coast of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific. It moved westward toward the Western Pacific and in fact curved back toward the Central Pacific where it eventually became extratropical. It lasted a total of 31 days! The longest lasting tropical cyclone on record!

Here is the track of Hurricane John in 1994:

wxmann_91 · #22 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 11:55 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Has an eastern Pacific system ever made it across the entire central area of the Pacific? I know it sounds unlikely, but has it ever happened?

Not the entire Pacific, but the central Pacific, yes. Hurricane John lasted for 30 days, originated in the eastern Pacific on Aug. 11, became a Cat 5 in the central Pacific, crossed the Date Line and became Typhoon John before it weakened back to a TS in the WPac, and recurved back into the central Pacific and restrengthened to a hurricane at an unbelievably high latitude for the Pacific (around 32N), and then finally became extratropical on Sept. 10, 1994.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1994/JOHN/track.gif

EDIT: never mind just look at post above

superfly · #23 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:00 pm

This thing looks like a beast for a TD.

MiamiensisWx · #24 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:01 pm

Thanks for responding. Wow, that is a long life span! If conditions are favorable enough and if the system survives until it reaches the central Pacific on the edge of the region where typhoons form, this system may maintain itself. It is already fairly far out from Mexico and still going strong, continuing away from land.

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:46 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (EP062005) ON 20050809 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 1800 050810 0600 050810 1800 050811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 115.4W 14.7N 117.1W 15.3N 118.8W 16.1N 120.5W
BAMM 14.0N 115.4W 14.7N 117.0W 15.3N 118.6W 16.0N 120.2W
LBAR 14.0N 115.4W 14.5N 117.4W 15.2N 119.6W 16.2N 121.9W
SHIP 30KTS 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 30KTS 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 1800 050812 1800 050813 1800 050814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 122.1W 17.6N 125.3W 18.2N 128.6W 18.7N 131.6W
BAMM 16.6N 121.8W 17.4N 124.9W 18.0N 127.9W 18.3N 130.8W
LBAR 17.0N 124.3W 18.8N 129.2W 20.4N 132.7W 22.3N 133.7W
SHIP 65KTS 65KTS 59KTS 53KTS
DSHP 65KTS 65KTS 59KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 115.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 113.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 111.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Models for TD Six-E.

HurricaneBill · #26 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:00 pm

I remember watching John in 1994. He just wouldn't go away! :lol:

At the rate John was going, it looked like he was gonna hit Alaska!

Did John eventually make it to Alaska as an extratropical system?

Sanibel · #27 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:04 pm

It's weird the way the atmosphere works. This EPAC development could signify a flashing on of favorability over the EPAC and west Atlantic.

wxmann_91 · #28 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:06 pm

For anyone who is interested, Floater 1 is on TD 6E now.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #29 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:14 pm

Sanibel wrote:It's weird the way the atmosphere works. This EPAC development could signify a flashing on of favorability over the EPAC and west Atlantic.

Quite possible. Interesting find Sanibel :wink:

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 3:32 pm

141
WTPZ41 KNHC 092031
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ON THE
VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
CONSTRAINED AT T2.0 FROM SAB AND T1.5 FROM TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
LEADING TO DATA T NUMBERS OF T2.5 FROM SAB AND T3.0 FROM TAFB. THE
1826Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF 25 KT WINDS NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM...WITH RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT WINDS IN ITS INFLOW BAND. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 30 KTS AT THIS
TIME.

THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HRS...WHICH SHOULD HELP LURE THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP
STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD JUST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES BY THE
26C ISOTHERM. THE SHORT TERM TRACK HAS SHIFTED LEFT/ MORE WESTWARD
DUE TO THE DEPRESSIONS PERSISTENT WESTWARD COURSE. THE CURRENT
TRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH
INCLUDES THE GFS/BAM SUITE/CANADIAN/GFDL MODELS...BUT TO THE
RIGHT OF CLIPER AND EXTRAPOLATION AND CLOSEST TO THE UKMET. THE 12Z
GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST BY DROPPING A SECOND
UPPER CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ON DAYS 4
AND 5. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY..SLOWED DOWN THE TRACK FROM
CONTINUITY...WHICH IS ALSO A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS THE VERY SLOW GFDL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS SHORTLY...AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE
WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. THIS IS STRONGER
THAN CONTINUITY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATERS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED/NAMED...THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WOULD REMAIN TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL
PACE...BUT STILL TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE PACE OF THE SLOW
2001/2002/2004 HURRICANE SEASONS.

TPC/NHC WILL TAKE OVER WRITING ADVISORIES ON THIS CYCLONE AT 03Z.

FORECASTER ROTH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.1N 115.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 14.6N 119.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 15.8N 123.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 16.8N 126.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 17.7N 129.9W 35 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 18.6N 133.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

#31 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 3:39 pm

*yawn*

Only 6 hours old and I'm already bored with it.

-Andrew92

#32 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 3:41 pm

However, not that I want something too interesting....

clfenwi · #33 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 3:42 pm

If Irene gets upgraded while TD6 didn't, then 6 should throw a hissy fit... could become quite the cat fight.

#34 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 3:44 pm

Andrew92 wrote:*yawn*

Only 6 hours old and I'm already bored with it.

-Andrew92

lol so am I man.

<RICKY>

Thunder44 · #35 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 3:56 pm

HPC did this advisory again. They are going to probably do the next advisory for Irene as well.

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:11 pm

Thunder44 wrote:HPC did this advisory again. They are going to probably do the next advisory for Irene as well.

But NHC takes over at 11 PM for both systems.

#37 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:HPC did this advisory again. They are going to probably do the next advisory for Irene as well.

But NHC takes over at 11 PM for both systems.

Not that I don't like HPC discussions, because these two, especially the last one, have been really good. Just am happy that the NHC has their problems apparently figgered out.

-Andrew92

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 5:48 pm

This system is a Tropical Storm right now and I expect an upgrade at 11 PM EDT.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #39 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 6:54 pm

My friend if Irene looked like that it would be a 50 knot tropical storm.

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 8:04 pm

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA (EP062005) ON 20050810 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 0000 050810 1200 050811 0000 050811 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 115.8W 15.5N 117.7W 16.5N 119.6W 17.3N 121.4W
BAMM 14.7N 115.8W 15.5N 117.8W 16.4N 119.6W 17.1N 121.4W
LBAR 14.7N 115.8W 15.5N 117.7W 16.8N 119.8W 18.0N 122.0W
SHIP 40KTS 55KTS 67KTS 74KTS
DSHP 40KTS 55KTS 67KTS 74KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 0000 050813 0000 050814 0000 050815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 122.9W 18.7N 126.0W 19.2N 129.6W 19.7N 133.1W
BAMM 17.7N 123.0W 18.2N 125.9W 18.6N 129.3W 18.8N 132.8W
LBAR 19.1N 124.2W 21.3N 128.0W 24.2N 129.8W 27.0N 129.0W
SHIP 77KTS 73KTS 63KTS 56KTS
DSHP 77KTS 73KTS 63KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 115.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 113.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 112.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 30NM

We got now TS Fernanda .Now forecast by ship to become a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Fernanda At EPAC

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