TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[clfenwi]

I thought we had been over this before six hours ago, but here goes again.

The Satellite Services Division estimate is one of three that is made available to the NHC. The other two are made by the Air Force Weather Agency and the Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch. To my knowledge the other two estimates are not made available to the public

As such, it may more may not reflect the official position given by the NHC. Because of that, to compare the SSD estimate to the NHC's official position is not a good way to derive motion, since SSD and NHC (and the other agencies) may be showing different preferences in what to call the center.

The last three SSD estimates have been along the same line of latitude:

09/1145 UTC 22.2N 53.3W T2.0/2.0 IRENE
09/1745 UTC 22.2N 53.7W T2.0/2.0 IRENE
09/2345 UTC 22.2N 54.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE

[deltadog03]

man...thats interesting..and due W

[NorthGaWeather]

All we've been hearing so far are Florida and the Carolinas. Doesn't anyone realize that Savannah, Ga. is in the middle of this? Right now Savannah has the same chance of a landfall as anyone else from Florida to Virginia.

Their hasn't been a major hurricane hit the GA coast in 107 years, so we're safe .

The GA coastline is very small and usually avoids hits. But maybe our luck will change this year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Skysummit I agree. Georgia along with all the SE coast should keep a close eye on this system.
In addition GOMers should keep a close eye just in case Irene decides to cross FL Peninsula and enter the GOM 6-7 days from now.

[skysummit]

All we've been hearing so far are Florida and the Carolinas. Doesn't anyone realize that Savannah, Ga. is in the middle of this? Right now Savannah has the same chance of a landfall as anyone else from Florida to Virginia.

Their hasn't been a major hurricane hit the GA coast in 107 years, so we're safe .

The GA coastline is very small and usually avoids hits. But maybe our luck will change this year.

I realize that. I just thought I'd mention you guys so you wouldn't be forgotten. I hope your luck continues to hold.

[Thunder44]

NastyCat4- I don't think DT's intention was to replay Andrew for shock value. He sincerely believes what he is forecasting, and he's a very good meteorologist. I understand your point about sensationalism, but I do not believe that DT is using this as a motive in his forecasting.

Yes, DT does not use sensationalism in his forecasting. Nastycat4 is very new obviously by his/her number of posts, so this person doesn't know that.

DT can be a little crude in his language, but hyping is something he has NEVER done. All of his forecasts that I've seen have been based on have been backed by logical data from models and other sources.

I seem to remember some blizzards he has hyped in the past several years for the northeast that never happened. Of course it seems that everybody else has forgotten that.

OMG you mean a meteorologist was WRONG?!?!?!

STOP THE PRESSES!

Since when are they perfect ?

A lot of the stuff DT posts is pure speculation. Not actual real life forecasts. And that is what boards like S2K and Eastern are for. Weather lovers to discuss all the possibilities...

If it's just speculation rather than actual forecasts he's making than he shouldn't get any credit for it. A common complaint I hear about JB, that doesn't seem to apply to DT.

[NorthGaWeather]

All we've been hearing so far are Florida and the Carolinas. Doesn't anyone realize that Savannah, Ga. is in the middle of this? Right now Savannah has the same chance of a landfall as anyone else from Florida to Virginia.

Their hasn't been a major hurricane hit the GA coast in 107 years, so we're safe .

The GA coastline is very small and usually avoids hits. But maybe our luck will change this year.

I realize that. I just thought I'd mention you guys so you wouldn't be forgotten. I hope your luck continues to hold.

Yeah I was joking with my first comment but it has been some incredible luck. Hopefully it will hold up another year. You are right the GA coast always gets forgotten but I quess we like it that way.

[gkrangers]

NastyCat4- I don't think DT's intention was to replay Andrew for shock value. He sincerely believes what he is forecasting, and he's a very good meteorologist. I understand your point about sensationalism, but I do not believe that DT is using this as a motive in his forecasting.

Yes, DT does not use sensationalism in his forecasting. Nastycat4 is very new obviously by his/her number of posts, so this person doesn't know that.

DT can be a little crude in his language, but hyping is something he has NEVER done. All of his forecasts that I've seen have been based on have been backed by logical data from models and other sources.

I seem to remember some blizzards he has hyped in the past several years for the northeast that never happened. Of course it seems that everybody else has forgotten that.

OMG you mean a meteorologist was WRONG?!?!?!

STOP THE PRESSES!

Since when are they perfect ?

A lot of the stuff DT posts is pure speculation. Not actual real life forecasts. And that is what boards like S2K and Eastern are for. Weather lovers to discuss all the possibilities...

If it's just speculation rather than actual forecasts he's making than he shouldn't get any credit for it. A common complaint I hear about JB, that doesn't seem to apply to DT.

DT > JB

End of story. Now lets get back on track.

[NastyCat4]

Speculating on a major when recurvature is still the most likely option is sensationalism. The NHC has noted the West movement, but still tends to go with the CONU senario of recurvature, not a major into the Southeast Coast. If the movement is more Westerly, it is probably temporary.

[wxman57]

09/2345 UTC 22.2N 54.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Latest SSD position/intensity estimate

wow, .4s and .1w

Such differences in positioning are meaningless with a system like Irene where the center estimate could be off a whole degree. Ask 10 mets where the center is and you'll likely get 10 different estimates. Without a well-defined center to track, you cannot judge motion very well.

On another note, anyone see anything about recon? The NHC is usually so anxious to fly recon that they'll fly into just about anything. Irene could actually threaten the east U.S. coast (if it survives) in 6-7 days and it's within recon range now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think we had better wait until Irene gets under the anticyclone are tomorrow sometime (provided the speed stays the same) to declare her weak, pitiful, ragged, or other such classifications. She has a track record of living to fight another day. The dry air is still there but the moisture envelope will improve soon and so should the convection.

[jkt21787]

Speculating on a major when recurvature is still the most likely option is sensationalism. The NHC has noted the West movement, but still tends to go with the CONU senario of recurvature, not a major into the Southeast Coast. If the movement is more Westerly, it is probably temporary.

The track NO LONGER indicates a recurvature, it shows a general WNW motion. Are you paying attention? Must not be...


Do you see it turning MORE WEST at the end of the forecast. Doesn't look like a recurvature scenario to me.

Of course NHC is hedging though, lol.

Recurvature is still possible, but becoming less likely.

[gkrangers]

Speculating on a major when recurvature is still the most likely option is sensationalism. The NHC has noted the West movement, but still tends to go with the CONU senario of recurvature, not a major into the Southeast Coast. If the movement is more Westerly, it is probably temporary.

The NHC doesn't forecast past 5 days. Recurvature is still very possible, but much less likely than it was the last few days.

[Thunder44]

NastyCat4- I don't think DT's intention was to replay Andrew for shock value. He sincerely believes what he is forecasting, and he's a very good meteorologist. I understand your point about sensationalism, but I do not believe that DT is using this as a motive in his forecasting.

Yes, DT does not use sensationalism in his forecasting. Nastycat4 is very new obviously by his/her number of posts, so this person doesn't know that.

DT can be a little crude in his language, but hyping is something he has NEVER done. All of his forecasts that I've seen have been based on have been backed by logical data from models and other sources.

I seem to remember some blizzards he has hyped in the past several years for the northeast that never happened. Of course it seems that everybody else has forgotten that.

OMG you mean a meteorologist was WRONG?!?!?!

STOP THE PRESSES!

Since when are they perfect ?

A lot of the stuff DT posts is pure speculation. Not actual real life forecasts. And that is what boards like S2K and Eastern are for. Weather lovers to discuss all the possibilities...

If it's just speculation rather than actual forecasts he's making than he shouldn't get any credit for it. A common complaint I hear about JB, that doesn't seem to apply to DT.

DT > JB

End of story. Now lets get back on track.

You've just proved yourself a hypcrocrite. I need not say no more.

[gkrangers]

NastyCat4- I don't think DT's intention was to replay Andrew for shock value. He sincerely believes what he is forecasting, and he's a very good meteorologist. I understand your point about sensationalism, but I do not believe that DT is using this as a motive in his forecasting.

Yes, DT does not use sensationalism in his forecasting. Nastycat4 is very new obviously by his/her number of posts, so this person doesn't know that.

DT can be a little crude in his language, but hyping is something he has NEVER done. All of his forecasts that I've seen have been based on have been backed by logical data from models and other sources.

I seem to remember some blizzards he has hyped in the past several years for the northeast that never happened. Of course it seems that everybody else has forgotten that.

OMG you mean a meteorologist was WRONG?!?!?!

STOP THE PRESSES!

Since when are they perfect ?

A lot of the stuff DT posts is pure speculation. Not actual real life forecasts. And that is what boards like S2K and Eastern are for. Weather lovers to discuss all the possibilities...

If it's just speculation rather than actual forecasts he's making than he shouldn't get any credit for it. A common complaint I hear about JB, that doesn't seem to apply to DT.

DT > JB

End of story. Now lets get back on track.

You've just proved yourself a hypcrocrite. I need not say no more.

I really don't know what you are talking about.

[deltadog03]

yeah good point...what about recon??

[skysummit]

Speculating on a major when recurvature is still the most likely option is sensationalism. The NHC has noted the West movement, but still tends to go with the CONU senario of recurvature, not a major into the Southeast Coast. If the movement is more Westerly, it is probably temporary.

The track NO LONGER indicates a recurvature, it shows a general WNW motion. Are you paying attention? Must not be...


Do you see it turning MORE WEST at the end of the forecast. Doesn't look like a recurvature scenario to me.

Of course NHC is hedging though, lol.

Recurvature is still possible, but becoming less likely.

Plus, look at the Sunday cone of error. The southern most tip of the cone is pretty much the same latitude she is now. I believe this W - WNW motion will continue for the next 5 days at least.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

General message to NO ONE IN PARTICULAR:
Dudes chill out, this place is supposed to a place to chill, hang out, and talk about the tropics

[jkt21787]

General message to NO ONE IN PARTICULAR:
Dudes chill out, this place is supposed to a place to chill, hang out, and talk about the tropics

I know that was probably meant for me and a couple of others, lol

I'm chillin' though now. Sorry for being a bit harsh earlier, just trying to make a point. Lack of sleep is prob. the culprit. Thanks...

[Astro_man92]

I think we had better wait until Irene gets under the anticyclone are tomorrow sometime (provided the speed stays the same) to declare her weak, pitiful, ragged, or other such classifications. She has a track record of living to fight another day. The dry air is still there but the moisture envelope will improve soon and so should the convection.

You have a point there. If you look at the water vapor loop it looks like Irene is struggleing right now If it makes it through the dry air I think it is going to have to do battle with a ULL I don't think is going ot make it to the coast once it hits that ULL I think it is done for. Unless the ULL just pushes it off or misses Irene entierly. You can't really see the battle in the visible loop as well