TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Thunder44]

General message to NO ONE IN PARTICULAR:
Dudes chill out, this place is supposed to a place to chill, hang out, and talk about the tropics

Really I'm fine. I'm done.

[Astro_man92]

I think we had better wait until Irene gets under the anticyclone are tomorrow sometime (provided the speed stays the same) to declare her weak, pitiful, ragged, or other such classifications. She has a track record of living to fight another day. The dry air is still there but the moisture envelope will improve soon and so should the convection.

You have a point there. If you look at the water vapor loop it looks like Irene is struggleing right now If it makes it through the dry air I think it is going to have to do battle with a ULL I don't think is going ot make it to the coast once it hits that ULL I think it is done for. Unless the ULL just pushes it off or misses Irene entierly. You can't really see the battle in the visible loop as well

is there even a ULL there or is just a stay low???(the circulation near the coast)

[WeatherEmperor]

The new 00Z models have a slight northward shift in them. Graphic not yet updated but points are.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[clfenwi]

Well, WRT to recon, the latest POD had no tasking for tomorrow, so presumably the earliest we could see a flight would be Thursday afternoon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The new 00Z models have a slight northward shift in them. Graphic not yet updated but points are.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Looks like they are playing there back in forth game again.

[WeatherEmperor]

The new 00Z models have a slight northward shift in them. Graphic not yet updated but points are.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Looks like they are playing there back in forth game again.

you have no idea how annoying that can be at times.

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

The new 00Z models have a slight northward shift in them. Graphic not yet updated but points are.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Its not so much a north shift as its a continuance to the west. just my opinion.

[jabber]

09/2345 UTC 22.2N 54.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Latest SSD position/intensity estimate

wow, .4s and .1w

Such differences in positioning are meaningless with a system like Irene where the center estimate could be off a whole degree. Ask 10 mets where the center is and you'll likely get 10 different estimates. Without a well-defined center to track, you cannot judge motion very well.

On another note, anyone see anything about recon? The NHC is usually so anxious to fly recon that they'll fly into just about anything. Irene could actually threaten the east U.S. coast (if it survives) in 6-7 days and it's within recon range now.

I was wondering about the same thing. They have flown into stuff that seems less of a threat. Do you think they are very confident of a fish track. I also agree that with out a true center to initilize, guidence is going to be a best guess at this point.

[WindRunner]

The new 00Z models have a slight northward shift in them. Graphic not yet updated but points are.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

62kts and steady at 96hr. What's going to be the inhibitor? The ULL?

And we could still see recon tomorrow yet, but it's unlikely.

[WeatherEmperor]

The new 00Z models have a slight northward shift in them. Graphic not yet updated but points are.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Its not so much a north shift as its a continuance to the west. just my opinion.

Right. That continuance to the west you mentioned is occuring further and further north according to those models.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

thats not much further north than the 18z runs...i mean they are but, they still all show a bend back to the west... i don't see much change, therefore NHC will prolly continue there path...

[Wnghs2007]

There out

[CronkPSU]

wow, amazing we have 49 pages already for a storm with 35 mph winds...there ought to be a rule that the number of pages can't be greater than the mph

[CronkPSU]

nevermind

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Where gong for 100 pages at the least.

[deltadog03]

anythings possible...miami to NC...maybe even bermuda...

[Astro_man92]

wow, amazing we have 49 pages already for a storm with 35 mph winds...there ought to be a rule that the number of pages can't be greater than the mph

[CronkPSU]

geez, what the heck is the gfdl doing in the 00z run? looks like it has it headed almost NNW for the next 24 hours???

[deltadog03]

irene looks horrible right now

[gkrangers]

geez, what the heck is the gfdl doing in the 00z run? looks like it has it headed almost NNW for the next 24 hours???

00z GFDL isn't out yet. I know it says 2300z, but thats the 18z thats currently up. GFDL comes out after the trop models.