TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[superfly]

I don't think Irene has looked any worse than right now. Even when it was a naked swirl, the LLC was strong. The LLC is very weak right now if there at all.

[deltadog03]

i agree...

[CronkPSU]

damn bipolar storm, make up your mind

[fci]

NastyCat4- I don't think DT's intention was to replay Andrew for shock value. He sincerely believes what he is forecasting, and he's a very good meteorologist. I understand your point about sensationalism, but I do not believe that DT is using this as a motive in his forecasting.

Yes, DT does not use sensationalism in his forecasting. Nastycat4 is very new obviously by his/her number of posts, so this person doesn't know that.

DT can be a little crude in his language, but hyping is something he has NEVER done. All of his forecasts that I've seen have been based on have been backed by logical data from models and other sources.

I seem to remember some blizzards he has hyped in the past several years for the northeast that never happened. Of course it seems that everybody else has forgotten that.

OMG you mean a meteorologist was WRONG?!?!?!

STOP THE PRESSES!

Since when are they perfect ?

A lot of the stuff DT posts is pure speculation. Not actual real life forecasts. And that is what boards like S2K and Eastern are for. Weather lovers to discuss all the possibilities...

If it's just speculation rather than actual forecasts he's making than he shouldn't get any credit for it. A common complaint I hear about JB, that doesn't seem to apply to DT.

BTW, what is JB saying about the system?

[gkrangers]

I've been a staunch Irene supporter thus far...but right now I'm really questioning its survival for the first time..

[Scorpion]

Irene is fine.. she'll be better in a few hours.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think we had better wait until Irene gets under the anticyclone are tomorrow sometime (provided the speed stays the same) to declare her weak, pitiful, ragged, or other such classifications. She has a track record of living to fight another day. The dry air is still there but the moisture envelope will improve soon and so should the convection.

You have a point there. If you look at the water vapor loop it looks like Irene is struggleing right now If it makes it through the dry air I think it is going to have to do battle with a ULL I don't think is going ot make it to the coast once it hits that ULL I think it is done for. Unless the ULL just pushes it off or misses Irene entierly. You can't really see the battle in the visible loop as well

is there even a ULL there or is just a stay low???(the circulation near the coast)

Looks like it's at the 200mb level. I'm not sure it will be close enough to do battle when/if Irenen gets there. Probably provide shear or worse ventilate it.

[deltadog03]

man, we need to throw a party for her...lol..she is def.. a primetime fighter

[NorthGaWeather]

Speculating on a major when recurvature is still the most likely option is sensationalism. The NHC has noted the West movement, but still tends to go with the CONU senario of recurvature, not a major into the Southeast Coast. If the movement is more Westerly, it is probably temporary.

Who said it was the most likely option? Its clearly your opinion. How about you back it up with synoptic and model evidence.

[fci]

Speculating on a major when recurvature is still the most likely option is sensationalism. The NHC has noted the West movement, but still tends to go with the CONU senario of recurvature, not a major into the Southeast Coast. If the movement is more Westerly, it is probably temporary.

The track NO LONGER indicates a recurvature, it shows a general WNW motion. Are you paying attention? Must not be...


Do you see it turning MORE WEST at the end of the forecast. Doesn't look like a recurvature scenario to me.

Of course NHC is hedging though, lol.

Recurvature is still possible, but becoming less likely.

Plus, look at the Sunday cone of error. The southern most tip of the cone is pretty much the same latitude she is now. I believe this W - WNW motion will continue for the next 5 days at least.

What is the basis fro the NW movement then a turn to the W?
Seems like it is simply headed W now and has been for a while.
Continuity??

[clfenwi]

geez, what the heck is the gfdl doing in the 00z run? looks like it has it headed almost NNW for the next 24 hours???

gkrangers has already answered your first question.

As far as the second goes, refer to the text guidance (that I posted a page or two back but here's the link it is in case you missed it : http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080923

It started Irene on a 270 course, with a turn to a WNW/NW course following for most of the near term. It isn't until 66 hours or so that the course goes NNW. So the intial course is not as as sharp to the north as the graphic makes it appear.

[deltadog03]

I tell you what...and this has been my whole thing on all of my forecast tracks....i have been left of the guidance ever since we started...my big reason is because she is just not strenghening...and until i see a true WNW path..im not budging...

[gkrangers]

Heres a good one.

GFDL keeps Irene alive for over 100 hours for the first time, and Irene is really really really looking sick right now...

[shaggy]

latest GFDL also takes it to 87 knots for awhile before a sharp left trun and weakening phase going to be interesting from N Ga to NE but only time will tell

[clfenwi]

I tell you what...and this has been my whole thing on all of my forecast tracks....i have been left of the guidance ever since we started...my big reason is because she is just not strenghening...and until i see a true WNW path..im not budging...

That's pretty much the way I was with Emily. She rolled due west for days but most of the models wanted to take her wnw right off the start. So, I went with the models that weren't doing that.

Nailed the first landfall point, was too far south on the second.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 211#953211

[deltadog03]

I tell you what...and this has been my whole thing on all of my forecast tracks....i have been left of the guidance ever since we started...my big reason is because she is just not strenghening...and until i see a true WNW path..im not budging...

That's pretty much the way I was with Emily. She rolled due west for days but most of the models wanted to take her wnw right off the start. So, I went with the models that weren't doing that.

Nailed the first landfall point, was too far south on the second.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 211#953211

so, does your instinct tell you more westward?? im just thinking i don't see that changing right now...do you? and thanks for that info

[WeatherEmperor]

I tell you what...and this has been my whole thing on all of my forecast tracks....i have been left of the guidance ever since we started...my big reason is because she is just not strenghening...and until i see a true WNW path..im not budging...

you know what? I agree with you. The models have been continuosly developing Irene while it hasnt which is responsible for its more westerly track versus most of the models's wnw track.

<RICKY>

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think it's safe to say the ridge in place, in fact that is an understatement

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

Also the steering is still low level (again) the GFDL looks plausible to me. but I can't reconcile the movement of the ridge and then the W movement. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005080918-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[clfenwi]

latest GFDL also takes it to 87 knots for awhile before a sharp left trun and weakening phase going to be interesting from N Ga to NE but only time will tell

1. 87 knots is the forecast 925 millibar wind, so a 15-25% deduction has to be applied.

2. The 00Z forecast 925 mb wind was 58.6 kts...even with the max deduction that comes down to 44 knots... way too high... (though it does have a downward fluctuation up and down after that, so some of the forecasts could verify).

[WeatherEmperor]

wow that is one monster ridge. what do you think that means for Irene?

<RICKY>