Tropical Depression Irene Advisory 22
8:00 PM PDT Aug 9 2005 (11:00 PM EDT or 3Z Aug 10 2005)
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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.
Please remember...tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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Though the shear has relaxed around Irene...the dry air still hinders Irene. After going through an intensification stage this afternoon...the structure of Irene has worsened considerably tonight...and there is some doubt as whether Irene can survive the night. Thus...I have kept the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. I will be a bit more bullish afterwards...presuming Irene survives...and will expect Irene to strengthen to a hurricane in 96 hours...since I believe that an anticyclone should build over Irene. However...some uncertainties still exist...including a currently stationary upper level low near the Bahamas...and the excessively dry air surrounding Irene.
The track has been shifted significantly westward from yesterday night...when the models were predicting a shortwave trough to bypass Irene. Tonight...many models now build a strong ridge to the north of Irene...blocking it from moving north. The east coast should continue to monitor Irene carefully...though it is still too early to tell where Irene will affect...if it affects anyone at all.
Forecaster Tang
Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 22.4N 55.5W 30 kt
12 hr 22.6N 57.0W 30 kt
24 hr 23.0N 58.6W 35 kt
36 hr 24.0N 60.7W 40 kt
48 hr 25.2N 62.9W 45 kt
72 hr 26.8N 66.4W 50 kt
96 hr 27.7N 69.5W 60 kt
120 hr 28.1N 72.7W 70 kt
Track:
Comments and suggestions welcomed as always.
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I'm amazed that it's lasted so long with so very little convection and organization.
Im looking for the time off work 