TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Derek Ortt]

a wave has no closed surface circulation at the surface. THIS HAS NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. ITS A WAVE... at least for right now

[Ivanhater]

derek, i think you would agree that everyone should go with the nhc , as they are offcial and you are not.... so if you think this is a wave, fine, but the nhc does not think it is a wave at this time...so td is what it is for now

[Stratosphere747]

there is a circulation, mid or low, there still is a circulation....calling this a wave is a bit premature

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Ivan... I want to work with you here...

Give us something besides a visable, in the night...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to have a very broad low level spin at the surface. In with that convection forming it might help to spin off a new LLC later. That is what I think.

[Derek Ortt]

and NHC is only keeping it as a TD FOR CONTINUITY


And no, I am not restricted to go only with NHC and will not just because they are US Gov't. This is one case where our gov't is dead wrong

[gkrangers]

derek, i think you would agree that everyone should go with the nhc , as they are offcial and you are not.... so if you think this is a wave, fine, but the nhc does not think it is a wave at this time...so td is what it is for now

He has a right to his opinion. The NHC has the responsibility to keep the public informed, and they won't "yo-yo" around and go from wave-depression-wave-depression every 6 hours. Its called continuity, read into it.

[Ivanhater]

and NHC is only keeping it as a TD FOR CONTINUITY


And no, I am not restricted to go only with NHC and will not just because they are US Gov't. This is one case where our gov't is dead wrong

no you dont have to go with them, but it is extremely important that the public does...so td it stays for now

[Derek Ortt]

NHC will probably end continuity, as we will, tomorrow morning.

I have other considerations that will prevent me from playing a game of keeping a TC when it is not after 11 tomorrow, which is why I set that as the drop dead time. If, as is likely, this does not organize overnight, then keep saying its a TC... when there is no doubt that it is a wave, with a high potential for development

[sma10]

This all explains why there has been no recon scheduled as all of us asked when the "hype machine" had this being a Hurricane soon.

The thing that gets me is the flipping from "better organized, maybe a TS soon" to where it is now...
Just proves there is no telling what these systems will do.
Which makes it a whole lot of fun, frustrating at times; to follow them

NHC sends recon into invests all the time. Surely even if you are in the camp that this is a disturbance and not a depression a recon mission is worthwhile for verification.

[gkrangers]

and NHC is only keeping it as a TD FOR CONTINUITY


And no, I am not restricted to go only with NHC and will not just because they are US Gov't. This is one case where our gov't is dead wrong

no you dont have to go with them, but it is extremely important that the public does...so td it stays for now

So whats your argument? Thats the correct stance for the NHC to take. Once again..its called continuity.

[ROCK]

is it possible that some sort of circulation exists SINCE the latest SCAT?

[Ivanhater]

and NHC is only keeping it as a TD FOR CONTINUITY


And no, I am not restricted to go only with NHC and will not just because they are US Gov't. This is one case where our gov't is dead wrong

no you dont have to go with them, but it is extremely important that the public does...so td it stays for now

So whats your argument? Thats the correct stance for the NHC to take. Once again..its called continuity.

my point is the same....we have professionals making remarks THIS IS A WAVE, when it is not officially....

[gkrangers]

and NHC is only keeping it as a TD FOR CONTINUITY


And no, I am not restricted to go only with NHC and will not just because they are US Gov't. This is one case where our gov't is dead wrong

no you dont have to go with them, but it is extremely important that the public does...so td it stays for now

So whats your argument? Thats the correct stance for the NHC to take. Once again..its called continuity.

my point is the same....we have professinals making remarks THIS IS A WAVE, when it is not officaly....

They are not providing an official public forecast. They have the luxury of analyzing the current situation and telling us what they see. They see no evidence of a circulation. Its also likely that the guys at NHC are thinking the same thing. HOWEVER, their obligation to the public prohibits them from just dropping the system. Hence, continuity...

[Sanibel]

I know of many open waves that have had 45 m.p.h. sustained winds with 60 m.p.h. gusts. Common for the Windward Islands. Claudette had that... wide open at the surface

If you recall, Claudette was another one where people were questioning why NHC took so long to classify it when it had an obvious circulation. Also Claudette was a fast mover, so the 25mph forward speed probably accounted for a good deal of that 45mph.

While the LLC is looking pretty poor right now, if you go to the shortwave loop you'll see the flow is pushing towards a tongue of trough remnant that Irene's bands are compressing against. I believe this has caused the surface spiral to distort slightly making the LLC less apparent.

Still, this thing is looking harder and harder to sell. If it doesn't flare-up again it could lose it.

[baygirl_1]

Well, it sure doesn't look as good as it did earlier today. I guess the best thing to do right now is to wait til the "real" visibles come thru in the morning and see if there is a closed surface circulation. After all, we have several days to watch this thing if it does become a threat to US or Bermuda.
My opinion: If it doesn't have a closed surface circulation tomorrow morning, it will later as it's heading in the direction of more favorable conditions. Time will certainly tell. Actually, all this shows us that the Atlantic has not opened up, yet, for Cape Verde season. Still some hostile conditions out there. Just my 2 cents worth...

[gatorcane]

A wave or depression, to me there is very little difference. I don't think there is a reason for the NHC to maintain continuity in this case. A TS vs a hurricane or CAT3 vs CAT 5 is a different story.

[WeatherEmperor]

we will see what happens overnight. If Irene does not really get her act going then its possible it will be downgraded to a wave and if she does organize then we will continue on. Who knows? Gosh I wish I had a crystal ball right now.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

HOWEVER, their obligation to the public prohibits them from just dropping the system. Hence, continuity...

You could be right, but we're still 7 days out.

[gatorcane]

Irene will become a hurricane in my opinion in about 3-5 days and will hit the SE coast...just give it time....everybody will be talking about it by the weekend.

[Derek Ortt]

Claudette was classified appropriately. Surface obs and QUIKSCAT showed NO TRACE of a circ, even though many amateurs were screaming it was a TS. When recon found a hint of a west wind, it was then classified immediately, as it should have been

Satellite can be deceiving, which is why limiting oneself to only that tool, limits the ability to correctly analyse the situation