Unofficial Irene Forecast #3

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Depression Irene
August 10, 2005 12am E
Unofficial Forecast #3
Mike Naso

Tropical Depression Irene remains poorly organized in the Atlantic Ocean, moving west.

Irene is moving westward at about 9 mph or so. I do not see Irene gaining too much latitude for the next 12-24 hours, as it should remain rather weak, and be steered more west. However, a slightly north of west track may occur as well. After 24-36 hours, Irene should be steered west-northwest under a 500 MB Ridge of high pressure. This forecast is very uncertain, especially after 48-72 hours...at which point Irene may begin a westward turn. However, as of right now, I will keep Irene moving west-northwest throughout 120 hours, but further south than the NHC official track.

The system is currently poorly organized, and should stuggle and fight for the next 12-24 hours. However, Irene has proved to be a rather good fighter over the past few days, so I expect her to survive. After 36 hours, the combination of favorable upper level winds, and warm oceanic heat content, should allow for steady intensification throughout 120 hours. But...should Irene move further south of this track, the intensity forecast could be significantly higher than indicated.

12 Hours: 22.8 N/ 57.8 W - 35 kt
24 Hours: 23.2 N/ 59.7 W - 40 kt
36 Hours: 23.0 N/ 61.9 W - 50 kt
48 Hours: 24.8 N/ 64.5 W - 60 kt
72 Hours: 25.7 N/ 68.0 W - 65 kt
96 Hours: 26.8 N/ 71.2 W - 75 kt
120 Hours: 27.8 N/ 74.0 W - 85 kt

[ConvergenceZone]

Great job Mike as always!

I'm guilty of calling this storm a fish. I have plenty of crow on my plate to eat While it's not certain that it won't be a fish, the chances have significantly dimished from what they were earlier.

[WindRunner]

I'd put a little more curve into the track at 96-120hrs, either to NW or W (It's anyone's call), but that intensity forecast is the best I've seen. I also like the point you made about being stronger if she moves further south. It's something we're going to have to watch for.

[Windtalker1]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Local Met on channel 7 states that the southerly winds will switch to SE by tomorrow as the high builds in. I see no curve north as indicated on NHC track. I think that Irene will strengthen to TS by 11PM tonight as she moves further west into more favorable condictions. As a matter of fact, as she strengthens, she will tend to move on a WSW track toward the coast of Florida. If I had to make a early landfall prediction and be the 1st to do it, I would say the Palm Beach area of Florida. That high will be just to strong for any major jog or tilt to the NW. No Bashing Allowed. Just a gut feeling.

[EDR1222]

Here is a short piece of the NWS Melbourne forecast discussion from Wednesday AM. It doesn't mention Irene, but it does talk a little about the ridge. Apparently, at this time, they are not optomistic about the weakness that the GFS is forecasting.

Obviously this is far out in time, so things could always change. See Below:

SUN-TUE...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTING GRADUALLY TO
THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF ECFL.
SPURIOUS VORT LOBE AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKNESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA
DEPICTED BY GFS SEEM SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST BASED
ON AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.

[mike815]

i know i read that too they dont hold much for the weakness. Doesnt sound good.

[sma10]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Local Met on channel 7 states that the southerly winds will switch to SE by tomorrow as the high builds in. I see no curve north as indicated on NHC track. I think that Irene will strengthen to TS by 11PM tonight as she moves further west into more favorable condictions. As a matter of fact, as she strengthens, she will tend to move on a WSW track toward the coast of Florida. If I had to make a early landfall prediction and be the 1st to do it, I would say the Palm Beach area of Florida. That high will be just to strong for any major jog or tilt to the NW. No Bashing Allowed. Just a gut feeling.

WSW, hmmm? Interesting, though not a single model sees that scenario. What leads you to that possibility?

[TexasStooge]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think Irene is gonna be the next Emily. I could be wrong though.

[du1st]

that would be terrifing! No Emily!

[gatorcane]

Local Met on channel 7 states that the southerly winds will switch to SE by tomorrow as the high builds in. I see no curve north as indicated on NHC track. I think that Irene will strengthen to TS by 11PM tonight as she moves further west into more favorable condictions. As a matter of fact, as she strengthens, she will tend to move on a WSW track toward the coast of Florida. If I had to make a early landfall prediction and be the 1st to do it, I would say the Palm Beach area of Florida. That high will be just to strong for any major jog or tilt to the NW. No Bashing Allowed. Just a gut feeling.

This would surprise me...

[du1st]

Could N georgia be affected if it hits jack.

[Windtalker1]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Local Met on channel 7 states that the southerly winds will switch to SE by tomorrow as the high builds in. I see no curve north as indicated on NHC track. I think that Irene will strengthen to TS by 11PM tonight as she moves further west into more favorable condictions. As a matter of fact, as she strengthens, she will tend to move on a WSW track toward the coast of Florida. If I had to make a early landfall prediction and be the 1st to do it, I would say the Palm Beach area of Florida. That high will be just to strong for any major jog or tilt to the NW. No Bashing Allowed. Just a gut feeling.

WSW, hmmm? Interesting, though not a single model sees that scenario. What leads you to that possibility?

The 5pm Report from Brian Norcross a local Met in Miami states there are only 2 things that can happen...They are as follows: 1) The Models are wrong again about the strength of the High and moves Irene on a more westerly track, as she strengthens, she can even move on a more WSW track around the building high. If this happens then those from S Florida to Central Florida need to take notice. 2) The highe splits into 2 areas...one east of Florida and 1 West of Florida opening a track for Irene to pull more NW through the Northern Bahamas and into the SE. He has shown that the High is still in place, still strong & still steering Irene toward the West. A stronger Storm tends to go around the ridge thus pushing it for a time on a WSW path around the High........ Brian was here for Andrew, he is the only one I watch here in S Florida now. I used to watch Bill on channel 7 but we all know where he is at now.