The ULL that is there now has almost 5 days to lift out or roll clockwise around the ridge.
With Irene pumping up the ridge the steering late in the forecast might come from a digging trough provided the ridge has not amplified signifigantly.
So track is linked to the intensity forecast.
The ridge will hold.....
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>>Yeah, forecasting things like where that ULL will be in a couple of days is always a bear. I'll agree that if it stays stationary for that period of time, that'll tear the system up again. It may back away W or SW though ...
The TUTT already has. We've been in a quasi trof-split pattern the whole season. It's a combination of TUTTs splitting. When they don't split, we're usually in El Nino. When all of them split or where there are endless ULLs just traveling around the basin, it's usually La Nina. This is a combo year probably having something to do with La Neutral
But that upper low is embedded in a surface high and appears to be just dancing around in there. Chances are it won't have very much affect if it stays to the NW and could even provide an outflow channel in the 3-5 day period depending on what's there.
Steve
The TUTT already has. We've been in a quasi trof-split pattern the whole season. It's a combination of TUTTs splitting. When they don't split, we're usually in El Nino. When all of them split or where there are endless ULLs just traveling around the basin, it's usually La Nina. This is a combo year probably having something to do with La Neutral
But that upper low is embedded in a surface high and appears to be just dancing around in there. Chances are it won't have very much affect if it stays to the NW and could even provide an outflow channel in the 3-5 day period depending on what's there.
Steve
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johngaltfla
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frederic79 wrote:One observation regarding what Dixie mentioned yesterday about Andrew. Yesterday Irene was almost history and was located about 500 miles north of Andrew's track (at the same longitude). Today her location is about 4 degrees south and 13 degrees east of Andrew's northernmost Atlantic position. Depending on the strength of the ridge and Irene's potential to bypass the trough, it's not beyond the scope of reason to think Irene could reach the same spot where Andrew became a hurricane, around 26N and 67W. That's were it gets interesting, given the conditions (SST's, anticyclone, low shear) ahead of Irene.
I don't think I needed reminding. I remember going down there the week after.
Last edited by johngaltfla on Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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