Moderator: S2k Moderators
clfenwi wrote:So... if anyone thinks the cloud mass has had some sort of northerly component in the past couple of hours... pipe up. Have stared and unstared at the loops for awhile, and even though the apparent sharpness of it may be an illusion, it does look like a 290° or so heading right now...
elysium wrote:Irene is looking more and more like a tropical storm with each passing frame coming off the sats. Have been busy today and only had time to review Irene on the 6pm newscast. At that time she exhibited a minor flare up of convection, but didn't appear to be very well organized. This hour, she is rapidly getting it together. Once again we are beginning to see a burst of magenta near the center, with excellent circulation clearly evidencing spiral banding features and outflow. It simply doesn't get any better than this.
It is important to remember that Irene's intensity, which is at a bare bones minimum right now, is totally unimportant. There is an argument to be waged that Irene poses more of a potential threat in her current mode of slow early stage continous development followed by peeks and valleys in which she has consistantly and tenaciously always pulled through, in a trecherous environment for development, as she nears an exceptionally conducive environment for development. Irene is extremely well organized. Only an extremely well organized system could have weathered what Irene has been through. But her organization extends not only to over-all wherewithal through trying times, but also as pertains to satellite imagery. Irene looks spectacular on sat feed and has for days now, always reorganizing her center with the type of rotational integrity that tells us visually and through the perusal of her 56 page history that she is in this for the long haul.
It has all been uphill for Irene until now. An uphill battle that would have wiped out a lesser storm has now been surmounted. We don't care how strong she is now. We know that getting strong while being badly battered by the cantankerous forces of sheer is, by its very nature, a hideously fallacious concept. All that matters, now that only rich tropical fuel water with added hurricane nitro lay ahead is 'did she make it?'. To that, we can resoundingly and unequivocally answer 'why certainly she did'.
it is certain that Irene will develop robustly in her new environment. Irene has won the battle for development in the hearts and minds of every sensible forecaster. We don't want an intense system. What we want is a system with integrity moving into an enviroment conducive for rich growth and solid organization as we begin raising the intensity forecast upwards again and again once Irene begins deepening and her outflow matures. The only real issue to focus on right now is track and directional heading. For right now and for at least the next 10 days, Irene will be heading westward as she intensifys according to every credible forecast and all the dynamical models.
Irene is one potent, dynamical storm.
I stopped reading after the 1st sentence.
elysium wrote:Irene is looking more and more like a tropical storm with each passing frame coming off the sats. Have been busy today and only had time to review Irene on the 6pm newscast. At that time she exhibited a minor flare up of convection, but didn't appear to be very well organized. This hour, she is rapidly getting it together. Once again we are beginning to see a burst of magenta near the center, with excellent circulation clearly evidencing spiral banding features and outflow. It simply doesn't get any better than this.
It is important to remember that Irene's intensity, which is at a bare bones minimum right now, is totally unimportant. There is an argument to be waged that Irene poses more of a potential threat in her current mode of slow early stage continous development followed by peeks and valleys in which she has consistantly and tenaciously always pulled through, in a trecherous environment for development, as she nears an exceptionally conducive environment for development. Irene is extremely well organized. Only an extremely well organized system could have weathered what Irene has been through. But her organization extends not only to over-all wherewithal through trying times, but also as pertains to satellite imagery. Irene looks spectacular on sat feed and has for days now, always reorganizing her center with the type of rotational integrity that tells us visually and through the perusal of her 56 page history that she is in this for the long haul.
It has all been uphill for Irene until now. An uphill battle that would have wiped out a lesser storm has now been surmounted. We don't care how strong she is now. We know that getting strong while being badly battered by the cantankerous forces of sheer is, by its very nature, a hideously fallacious concept. All that matters, now that only rich tropical fuel water with added hurricane nitro lay ahead is 'did she make it?'. To that, we can resoundingly and unequivocally answer 'why certainly she did'.
it is certain that Irene will develop robustly in her new environment. Irene has won the battle for development in the hearts and minds of every sensible forecaster. We don't want an intense system. What we want is a system with integrity moving into an enviroment conducive for rich growth and solid organization as we begin raising the intensity forecast upwards again and again once Irene begins deepening and her outflow matures. The only real issue to focus on right now is track and directional heading. For right now and for at least the next 10 days, Irene will be heading westward as she intensifys according to every credible forecast and all the dynamical models.
Irene is one potent, dynamical storm.
ivanhater wrote:omg i think i see the center!!!! i could be dead wrong....i think it just came out to the west of the convection, take a look
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
tallywx wrote:QuikScat has SIGNIFICANT limitations in detecting small circulation centers. It has missed a few TDs in the Gulf over the past few years when Recon. itself was able to fix a well-defined LLC (can't remember which one, but as I recall, Derek was "open waving" that one as well).
Remember Hurricane Iris back a few years ago? Tiny hurricane with 145 mph in the Caribbean. At the time, QuikScat showed NO CLOSED CIRCULATION, but easterly winds south of the CAT 4 hurricane. Was Iris an open wave at the time? No, no, no.
http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/Hwind/Public ... _paper.pdf
As you can see in the figure on page 10 of that report, the study had to apply an algorithm to correct QuikScat's wind barbs south of Iris that were 180 degrees from the direction they should have been.
