feederband wrote:clfenwi wrote:205 PM Tropical Weather Discussion's Tropical Waves section
...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE NEWEST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. IT WAS SPOTTED IN A 48 HOUR-LONG INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOP AND IN UPPER AIR TIMESECTIONS. IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE CLOSEST PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ITCZ.
EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD BY
4 TO 5 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE BASED ON WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AT
08/1200 UTC AND A 48 HOUR-LONG INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP
AND CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN
37W AND 42W.
A TROUGH...QUITE POSSIBLY WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH GAVE RISE TO T.D. IRENE...WAS ALONG 13N50W 10N51W 7N51W...
MOVING WEST 10 KT. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATING AND/OR ALREADY
DISSIPATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES...FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 20N67W...
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 15N68W...TO VENEZUELA NEAR 9N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N76W 16N71W 18N70W 19N70W...
GOING FROM SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
In short ...HOLY CRAP !!!
It is perfectly normal to have that many waves in action at one time. Hardly cause for excitement.
As I wrote yesterday, the western-most wave is entering an exteremely hostile upper air enviroment (>20 kts shear see (1).
Wave to the east of that is in dissipation (per the discussion).
Like yesterday, the most impressive wave is the one that just entered the scene. Haven't seen enough of yet to rate its future prospects.
The other night I was reading a report for the 1974 season written by none other than Neil Frank. Pretty interesting stuff as they actually kept track of the number of tropical waves that crossed the Atlantic that season. Number was upwards of 100. Number of waves that became tropical storms: 7.
My 72 hour outlook remains the same. Very low probability of new activity (INVEST or higher).
(1) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
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