TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Hyperstorm]

It surely looks to me that Irene has fought her way through the toughest environment possible.

Boy, are you right! I pointed out earlier that I've NEVER seen a tropical cyclone as tenacious as Irene. It has persisted in the worst environment and for a LONG time. Not even Kyle in 2002 had these conditions for such a long time.

The way she has survived tells me that once conditions improve, we can expect some significant strengthening. Watch out for a burst in the very warm Western Atlantic...

[gatorcane]

She has survived all the hostility as she has been a very tenasious system but now is liftoff time.

Yes I think people are going to be shocked how rapidly it will strengthen now that conditions are getting better. If it stays on the south side of the forecast path look for a possible major hurricane in 3-5 days.

[cycloneye]

12:00z Model Guidance.

[baygirl_1]

Well, that early morning QuikSCAT sertainly showed an open wave, albeit with some rather strong storms. Now, it appears Irene's trying to wrap up, again. The convections is growing, for sure. When's the next QuikSCAT pass?

[storms in NC]

12:00z Model Guidance.

looks like My brother better hold off on his new roof. lol

[Brent]

12:00z Model Guidance.

[gatorcane]

those model runs have shifted right dramatically have they not?

[gatorcane]

at least the BAM has

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I don't get it. Why are the models trying to take Irene on a NW course so abruptly? Her motion has been nearly due west or at the most wnw all along. And didn't she miss the weakness between the Highs already? Now I thought she was going to coast along the periphery of the ridge, which I thought was building back towards the west...yet the models seem to have the ridge staying put and Irene deciding to just quickly skate on up to east cackilacky.
I seem to remember another little storm, in similar environment also bucking the models all along, fighting the unfavorable conditions to survive, then amazing everyone with the intensity he achieved.
let's hope Irene doesn't try to mimic Andrew.

[gatorcane]

yeah I wonder why every model run pulls it WNW/NW very fast but yet Irene continues to move W at 270...makes you wonder if these models don't work well with waves...only TS and Hurricanes

[feederband]

I don't get it. Why are the models trying to take Irene on a NW course so abruptly? Her motion has been nearly due west or at the most wnw all along. And didn't she miss the weakness between the Highs already? Now I thought she was going to coast along the periphery of the ridge, which I thought was building back towards the west...yet the models seem to have the ridge staying put and Irene deciding to just quickly skate on up to east cackilacky.
I seem to remember another little storm, in similar environment also bucking the models all along, fighting the unfavorable conditions to survive, then amazing everyone with the intensity he achieved.
let's hope Irene doesn't try to mimic Andrew.

I don't get the nw later in the tracks...

[Hyperstorm]

What these models don't show is that after the system heads WNW for a while due to a weakness to the north, a ridge is expected to build. This will mean that the storm will slow down its forward momentum and could head back westerly. Depending on how far north it get, depends on where it will make landfall as it heads back west. I'm becoming concerned for a NE florida to Eastern North Carolina threat.

This is becoming a rather serious situation even though it is still 5-7 days away. EVERYONE from Florida to the Carolinas should be on alert mode...

[WeatherEmperor]

perhaps the reason she has stayed westward for so long was due to her unorganised state and now that Irene is getting better organized structure wise, then perhaps the models are saying "this time is for real with a WNW and eventual NW motion" Who knows. it seems reasonable. But for to happen what the models are saying right now, Irene would have to be moving WNW at this exact moment which I dont think she is.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

I don't get the nw later in the tracks...

I don't either but the only explanation is that the ridge that is forecasted to build in about 3 days will move E by an approaching system from the NW. The NHC discusses this scenario in their 5am discussion. That would cause a NW turn at the end of the forecast period...but I'm not so sure that will happen.

[wxwatcher91]

remember strength pushes a storm towards the pole... maybe the models think that modest strengthening will occur...

oh and my question: why does the SHIPS model level off the intensity for days 4 & 5?

[Air Force Met]

perhaps the reason she has stayed westward for so long was due to her unorganised state and now that Irene is getting better organized structure wise, then perhaps the models are saying "this time is for real with a WNW and eventual NW motion" Who knows. it seems reasonable. But for to happen what the models are saying right now, Irene would have to be moving WNW at this exact moment which I dont think she is.

<RICKY>

Very correct. There is no doubt that Irene would have been a fish had it developed as forecasted. However, there have been time (probably numerous) when it was really just an open wave...and that has allowed it to move more west.

[MortisFL]

perhaps the reason she has stayed westward for so long was due to her unorganised state and now that Irene is getting better organized structure wise, then perhaps the models are saying "this time is for real with a WNW and eventual NW motion" Who knows. it seems reasonable. But for to happen what the models are saying right now, Irene would have to be moving WNW at this exact moment which I dont think she is.

<RICKY>

Very correct. There is no doubt that Irene would have been a fish had it developed as forecasted. However, there have been time (probably numerous) when it was really just an open wave...and that has allowed it to move more west.

Agreed, lets see if Irene is starting a strengthening trend.

[Hyperstorm]

There is currently a mid-latitude trough located near the Great Lakes. This trough is expected to move off the NE coast of the US and weaken the ridge currently north of Irene (that's why it's called a weakness). Irene will respond by moving WNW to maybe even NW. Most of the models agree that the trough will not be strong enough (or Irene will be far enough south) to cause it to miss Irene. Once the trough bypasses Irene, a ridge is expected to build to its North and East. Depending on the position of Irene and the ridge, it will make the storm either move directly West or more WNW.

Just monitor the situation...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Sorry to say it for the NE Fl folks, but my gut reaction on this one is more like Jax area to Savannah. I just don't see that much of a northern turn happening.

[du1st]

alert mode from an open wave!