TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

stormernie · #1261 Postby **stormernie** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:27 am

Irene seems to be getting better organized by the minute, a new center is now taking shape to the east of the previous spot (5AM) and also it seems to be heading on a more pronounce WNW or even NW. It looks like the last model runs may be on track to take this storm close to the Carolinas and then turn it away. Also, the models are now stating that the ridge is not as strong as it was forecast to be yesterday.

#1262 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:27 am

Sorry to say it for the NE Fl folks, but my gut reaction on this one is more like Jax area to Savannah. I just don't see that much of a northern turn happening.

Why not? Just curious

caribepr · #1263 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:28 am

Hyperstorm wrote:

Just monitor the situation...

Excellent advice!

#1264 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:28 am

Irene seems to be getting better organized by the minute, a new center is now taking shape to the east of the previous spot (5AM) and also it seems to be heading on a more pronounce WNW or even NW. It looks like the last model runs may be on track to take this storm close to the Carolinas and then turn it away. Also, the models are now stating that the ridge is not as strong as it was forecast to be yesterday

.

It's still heading 270-280. What you see are the cloud tops getting blown off in a NW direction as the SE-NW shear is not unfolding...

du1st · #1265 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:29 am

Maybe but i still have a hard time beleiving she is strengthing.

#1266 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:30 am

du1st wrote:Maybe but i still have a hard time beleiving she is strengthing.

ya better believe it dude. lol

<RICKY>

#1267 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:31 am

she is strengthening...I expect T.S status by end of day today.

du1st · #1268 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:32 am

you said that yesterday. She is running out of time dude!

#1269 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:33 am

boca_chris wrote:she is strengthening...I expect T.S status by end of day today.

not picking on you but i bet we can find this statement at least once every day for the past 4 or 5 days...heck yesterday i thought we may have a very strong TS by this point the way it seemed to be intensifing, let's wait and see if this trend continues for more than 6 hours

boca · #1270 Postby **boca** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:34 am

Do you think she'll pull an Andrew and fake the models out and head towards S FL or is New Bern North Carolina the target. :lol:

boca · #1271 Postby **boca** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:36 am

This storm is making me crazy :wall:

#1272 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:36 am

I am thinking that SC to VA but who knows right now

du1st · #1273 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:37 am

funny indeed! I don't think so. I think she is more like Hugo at least in direction!

#1274 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:37 am

no way. pullin an Andrew would be weird to say the least. I wanna really see todays 18Z runs and Im also gonna be looking out for a WNW turn to materialize. Im not saying its gonna happen but according to the models its suppose to happen later today. Ill be waiting for it and if it still doesnt happen, well thats why I wanna see the 18Z models.

<RICKY>

#1275 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:38 am

Do you think she'll pull an Andrew and fake the models out and head towards S FL or is New Bern North Carolina the target.

No, I don't think she'll head towards S. Florida like Andrew. There was a massive ridge in place that caused that. Highely unlikely.

boca · #1276 Postby **boca** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:40 am

Maybe she'll pull an Isabel track of 03.

#1277 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:41 am

Maybe she'll pull an Isabel track of 03.

You have that graphic available?

MortisFL · #1278 Postby **MortisFL** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:41 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:no way. pullin an Andrew would be weird to say the least. I wanna really see todays 18Z runs and Im also gonna be looking out for a WNW turn to materialize. Im not saying its gonna happen but according to the models its suppose to happen later today. Ill be waiting for it and if it still doesnt happen, well thats why I wanna see the 18Z models.

<RICKY>

I think it depends on whether Irene is strengthening or if it goes back to being a dis-organized system. Like a post earlier said, Irene has made it this far west already because its been poorly organized.

#1279 Postby **EDR1222** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:41 am

boca_chris wrote:
Do you think she'll pull an Andrew and fake the models out and head towards S FL or is New Bern North Carolina the target.

No, I don't think she'll head towards S. Florida like Andrew. There was a massive ridge in place that caused that. Highely unlikely.

Models seem to be in pretty good agreement right now that she will track more toward the Carolinas. It will be interesting to see what the model runs do when/if she becomes stronger.

#1280 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:42 am

does anyone see a closed center of circ yet? i see a lot of convection but no center

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