TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1281 Postby **ALhurricane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:43 am

The point that needs to be made right now is the improving upper level environment over Irene. Take a look at this water vapor loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Notice the circular outflow that is developing over the storm? This is indicative of an anticylcone developing at the upper levels. This promotes divergence in the upper levels...and just as importantly convergence at the low levels.

In turn...Irene appears to be responding with banding features becoming more and more evident. I wouldn't start the rapidly strengthening thread yet

but there is no doubt she is becoming better organized.

wxwatcher91 · #1282 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:43 am

maybe its just me but with each post everybody makes (including myself) I see the species of crow growing smaller and smaller...

Website · #1283 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:44 am

boca_chris wrote:
Maybe she'll pull an Isabel track of 03.

You have that graphic available?

#1284 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:44 am

EDR1222 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Do you think she'll pull an Andrew and fake the models out and head towards S FL or is New Bern North Carolina the target.

No, I don't think she'll head towards S. Florida like Andrew. There was a massive ridge in place that caused that. Highely unlikely.

Models seem to be in pretty good agreement right now that she will track more toward the Carolinas. It will be interesting to see what the model runs do when/if she becomes stronger.

that is exactly what I was thinking. the models had had a rightward or north bias with Irene most of the time because she was not developing as they said she would. But now that Irene appears to be organizing, perpahs a WNW motion could key would: could begin to occur later today or into tomorrow. It just seems more logical.

<RICKY>

#1285 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:44 am

looks similar.... :eek:

#1286 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:46 am

I don't know about this strength theory. Derek Ortt said somewhere that a stronger Irene would go more west at this point but hopefully I'm not taking this out of context.

#1287 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:46 am

folks in NC better hope that it doesnt follow a similar path to Isabel.

<RICKY>

#1288 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:49 am

does seem to be going more WNW now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

du1st · #1289 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:49 am

it is a tropical wave guys. Let's leave now and wait till it stengthens. The wait is killin me! :wall:

boca · #1290 Postby **boca** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:50 am

I would think that a stronger system would be pulled poleward and a weaker system head more west with the low level easterlies. I'm just confused.

#1291 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:52 am

boca wrote:I would think that a stronger system would be pulled poleward and a weaker system head more west with the low level easterlies. I'm just confused.

from the visible imagery does it appear that Irene is going more WNW now or still W?

<RICKY>

#1292 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:53 am

du1st wrote:it is a tropical wave guys. Let's leave now and wait till it stengthens. The wait is killin me!

What evidence you have that the system is a wave?

Sure it looks better organized than yesterday with outflow starting to get established,convection increasing,banding improving and the MLC in place to drop to the surface.

du1st · #1293 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:54 am

due West.

Hyperstorm · #1294 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:54 am

I wish we would start a new thread. This one is getting too long and there's a lot of chit-chat...

Latest satellite images suggest that we're FINALLY seeing the developments of a better defined circulation center. It appears the MLC is making it down to the surface and development is looking imminent. Don't be surprised to see this back to tropical storm status within the next 12 hours.

Here's a satellite image pointing out where the LLC is developing:

#1295 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:55 am

265
NOUS42 KNHC 101300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT WED 10 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

What I dont understand is why the squadron is not already flying into the system as it passed 55w.

#1296 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:55 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:folks in NC better hope that it doesnt follow a similar path to Isabel.

<RICKY>

From what the the folks in Fla are saying it is going to fla. So maybe I don't have to worry so much now. Just joking I will keep a eye on her. She is a funny girl.

I do have to say that the NHC does get better on the path with in the 3-5 days. Lets just wait and see what happens the next two days

du1st · #1297 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:56 am

Cyclone the 5 am NHC discussion.

#1298 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:57 am

du1st wrote:Cyclone the 5 am NHC discussion.

New one at 11 AM will be different.

Derek Ortt · #1299 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:58 am

irene is no threat to land and its a TD... no need yet for recon

du1st · #1300 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:59 am

never mind

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