TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CronkPSU]

irene is no threat to land and its a TD... no need yet for recon

i thought they wanted to do more passes when storms are developing for research, seems like a good one to research

[Brent]

This thread is at 66 pages... isn't it time to start a new one??

[sma10]

I know this is a forum for following tropical storms, but after reading the last endless pages...I am pretty convinced (and this is depressing, as I have been using the internet since before it was called the internet and am still thrilled with the reality and potential) that sometimes, in some cases, there is just too much information available to be deciphered.
I'm not saying the thing of "pros are always right, respect your betters and shut up" - I'm simply saying...This is like seeing a 5 year old steal bubble gum and declaring that he is a mini crime wave (no pun intended) headed for a life in prison for theft and murder. Now..he might be, given circumstances as his life goes along, but on the other hand..
When ONE instance of weather, which is a LONG way out, has people bouncing around like balls in a lottery box, GEEZE! Isn't there a way to have interest, learn, and not draw conclusions every freaking time a storm has a change? They do this ALL THE TIME!!!
I can understand fears of those who have been seriously impacted by storms to naturally NOT want that thing coming back to your lives (the opposite of -removed-? Fearcasting?)...but that's an issue to recognize and deal with in your personal lives, not extropolate it into a forecast of the second/half minute/dare I say it, even day until a more appropriate time, which in this case is quite literally, for you east coasters, close to a week away?? Be prepared, watch, learn, enjoy, but calm down before you have a heart attack from something that isn't a threat to you at present.

Ahh, a voice of reason in the wilderness.

Sometimes I actually think back fondly to the days before the world wide web when the only way I could get the public advisory was to call the NHC advisory recording on the telephone. (forget about the discussion -- we didn't even know it existed!)

Nowadays we have virtually every bit of information at our fingertips -- it's nice, but we end up spending too much time in front of the computer probably

[Derek Ortt]

IFEX resumes on Aug 15. Also, those flights are not in the TCPOD

[cycloneye]

This thread is at 66 pages... isn't it time to start a new one??

I will consult with my bosses to see what they think about extending this thread or making a new one.In the meantime let's continue to replie here.

[du1st]

Bent I tried to start a new one but they deleted it.

[du1st]

Will do cyclone.

[wxwatcher91]

Cyclone the 5 am NHC discussion.

you really want this thing to die dont you? you have mentioned the 5am NHC discussion about 10 times already. I assure that most of us read it especially cycloneye. 5am EDT was 5 hours ago just to inform you and guess what, there is a new discussion coming out in an hour!

[sma10]

due West.

You may find that Irene is now finally gaining a bit of latitude

[du1st]

I really do. I am tired of storms. anyway only 3 times.

[Hyperstorm]

I know this is a forum for following tropical storms, but after reading the last endless pages...I am pretty convinced (and this is depressing, as I have been using the internet since before it was called the internet and am still thrilled with the reality and potential) that sometimes, in some cases, there is just too much information available to be deciphered.
I'm not saying the thing of "pros are always right, respect your betters and shut up" - I'm simply saying...This is like seeing a 5 year old steal bubble gum and declaring that he is a mini crime wave (no pun intended) headed for a life in prison for theft and murder. Now..he might be, given circumstances as his life goes along, but on the other hand..
When ONE instance of weather, which is a LONG way out, has people bouncing around like balls in a lottery box, GEEZE! Isn't there a way to have interest, learn, and not draw conclusions every freaking time a storm has a change? They do this ALL THE TIME!!!
I can understand fears of those who have been seriously impacted by storms to naturally NOT want that thing coming back to your lives (the opposite of -removed-? Fearcasting?)...but that's an issue to recognize and deal with in your personal lives, not extropolate it into a forecast of the second/half minute/dare I say it, even day until a more appropriate time, which in this case is quite literally, for you east coasters, close to a week away?? Be prepared, watch, learn, enjoy, but calm down before you have a heart attack from something that isn't a threat to you at present.

Ahh, a voice of reason in the wilderness.

Sometimes I actually think back fondly to the days before the world wide web when the only way I could get the public advisory was to call the NHC advisory recording on the telephone. (forget about the discussion -- we didn't even know it existed!)

Count me in on the club of callers to the NHC! And the telephone bills....Yikes! They came so high. What was it....$1.00 a minute? Don't keep reminding me of those days...

[du1st]

I thinks she is rearranging her center again.

[wxwatcher91]

I really do. I am tired of storms. anyway only 3 times.

you will learn to know me as one to exaggerate to get a point across ... dont worry though, I dont do for any meteorological information

[du1st]

Even the weather channel says she could be hurricane irene.

[sma10]

I know this is a forum for following tropical storms, but after reading the last endless pages...I am pretty convinced (and this is depressing, as I have been using the internet since before it was called the internet and am still thrilled with the reality and potential) that sometimes, in some cases, there is just too much information available to be deciphered.
I'm not saying the thing of "pros are always right, respect your betters and shut up" - I'm simply saying...This is like seeing a 5 year old steal bubble gum and declaring that he is a mini crime wave (no pun intended) headed for a life in prison for theft and murder. Now..he might be, given circumstances as his life goes along, but on the other hand..
When ONE instance of weather, which is a LONG way out, has people bouncing around like balls in a lottery box, GEEZE! Isn't there a way to have interest, learn, and not draw conclusions every freaking time a storm has a change? They do this ALL THE TIME!!!
I can understand fears of those who have been seriously impacted by storms to naturally NOT want that thing coming back to your lives (the opposite of -removed-? Fearcasting?)...but that's an issue to recognize and deal with in your personal lives, not extropolate it into a forecast of the second/half minute/dare I say it, even day until a more appropriate time, which in this case is quite literally, for you east coasters, close to a week away?? Be prepared, watch, learn, enjoy, but calm down before you have a heart attack from something that isn't a threat to you at present.

Ahh, a voice of reason in the wilderness.

Sometimes I actually think back fondly to the days before the world wide web when the only way I could get the public advisory was to call the NHC advisory recording on the telephone. (forget about the discussion -- we didn't even know it existed!)

Count me in on the club of callers to the NHC! And the telephone bills....Yikes! They came so high. What was it....$1.00 a minute? Don't keep reminding me of those days...

Hyperstorm:

I lived in Miami at the time = calls were free
The main problem though was the busy signals!

I always found it cool that the forecaster who wrote the advisory was also often the one who recorded the advisory on the phone line. For that reason the voices of Avila/Lawrence/Mayfield/Pasch/Rappaport etc are still etched in my mind.

[du1st]

I am bored of this storm I am ready for new developments.

[cycloneye]

Another graphic of the 12:00z Model run.

[baygirl_1]

We won't know which way she's actually moving-- NW, WNW, or W-- til a center forms that can be tracked. Until then all the movement we're seeing could just be the center realigning or reforming. So, for now, let's watch the cyclogenesis of Irene. I find it fascinating!

[BensonTCwatcher]

As I said yesterday, and the pros have now confirmed, the west movement has been due the weakness and shallowness of the system, The fact that we even have a wave now is remarkable. I have not seen a circulation survive the kind of dry air (SAL) and ULL's that have persisted in the Atlantic pattern. It looks to me as though the models are picking up on the intensification ( as they are made to do) and shoudl react predictably since the synoptics now in place will allow intensification. Notice how the dry air and ULL's are not there? ( pick a WV loop)

I thought Irene might be dead last night based on the hi res QS pass. It will be interesting to see what the newest one looks like. I posted my thoughts in this thread about the anticyclone last night. I give credit to the NHC ( and their related agencies) on seeing that ( see last night discussion)

Overall, the weakness in the system has made it hard/fun to predict. I look for a standard run of the mill intensifying hurricane over very high SST's riding a ridge or weakness, in a varying low shear upper air environment from here on out. You know the rest...Model runs, discussions etc. too bad the dang gets pointed at us for the models to line up

[du1st]

You must be right beneson. The models must be picking up on the strengthing.