Irene Impacts On FL and the Atlantic Ridge

#21 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 9:10 am

well-said and I agree.

boca · #22 Postby **boca** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 9:17 am

Boca_ chris is this new info onthe high because I thought as of this morning the ridge was supposed to weaken because as you know we haven't had an East wind above 5 knots in weeks.

jrod · #23 Postby **jrod** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 9:19 am

With the water temps boiling hot around Florida, even if Irene is just a wave if it approaches it should have oppurtunuity to pull itself together are at least flare up big time.

I want Irene to make it to Florida as a weak system. I believe it would give us a little cool off and mix up the ocean enough to lower the water temps something no one can say we dont need. This heat sucks now, 90* before noon, and with the ocean on the upper 80's there is not much relief on the beach.

#24 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 9:21 am

Boca_ chris is this new info onthe high because I thought as of this morning the ridge was supposed to weaken because as you know we haven't had an East wind above 5 knots in weeks

.

True but yesterday was the first time in several days that the inland storms did not make it to the east coast and the east winds were stronger yesterday...it may be a sign that the ridge is building back...we will see...in July it was strongest when Dennis was around. That's why it missed FL...

boca · #25 Postby **boca** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 9:30 am

keep me posted I'm work bound.

#26 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 11:10 am

trending west...I am very anxious to see what the NHC 5pm advisory discussion says, given the continued 270-280 motion and increased convection

#27 Postby **sponger** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 11:49 am

It will be an exciting week to say the least!

#28 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:28 pm

I think FL has become a possible target for Irene :eek:

#29 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:33 pm

Well FL has been a hurricane magnet the past couple years but lets wait and see. long way to go.

<RICKY>

#30 Postby **mvtrucking** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:37 pm

What if she stays due west for several days? With little or no climb in latitude. (stays below 25N)

#31 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:37 pm

i think FL is very much a possibility as well...

#32 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:38 pm

if thats the case it could head into the gulf...who knows

#33 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:09 am

From another post:

NWS Melbourne forecast discussion does not see a weakness in the ridge that the GFS is showing :eek:

:

SUN-TUE...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF ECFL. SPURIOUS VORT LOBE AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKNESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA DEPICTED BY GFS SEEM SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST BASED ON AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.

Patrick99 · #34 Postby **Patrick99** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:15 am

I don't see any *immediate* weakness in the ridge....am I wrong, or do I see a northerly flow right in front of Irene?

Of course, it will probably defy my eyes somehow and head NW straight into it.....

tallbunch · #35 Postby **tallbunch** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:18 am

I call a NC storm.

#36 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:25 am

tallbunch wrote:I call a NC storm.

PLEASE don't LOL. I think we both need to keep a good watch on her

du1st · #37 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:31 am

A gulf storm would be scary. :eek:

#38 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:32 am

I don't think anybody knows where this thing is going. It has defied all of our expectations at this point. A GOM storm, while more unlikely, is still not out of the question should the ridge build in strong at the end of the forecast period.

Hyperstorm · #39 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:33 am

boca_chris wrote:From another post:

NWS Melbourne forecast discussion does not see a weakness in the ridge that the GFS is showing :

SUN-TUE...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF ECFL. SPURIOUS VORT LOBE AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKNESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA DEPICTED BY GFS SEEM SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST BASED ON AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.

This weakness is a totally different weakness than the weakness that would steer Irene WNW-NW. The weakness that would do so is a trough that is currently moving over the Great Lakes. That will move off the east coast during the next 24 hours. The local NWS office is only talking about a local effects weakness.

Please don't assume something that is not accurate without asking for confirmation. That way we can avoid some confusion and scary faces.

#40 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:34 am

hyperstorm I don't think so. Notice it says the Atlantic Ridge. That is what will steer this thing. It's not misleading anybody.

Irene Impacts On FL and the Atlantic Ridge

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