Extratropical Irene Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE AUG 09 2005

...IRENE MOVING WESTWARD...NOT STRENGTHENING...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT
890 MILES...1430 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$




729
WTNT24 KNHC 100233
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0300Z WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 55.5W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 55.5W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 57.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 59.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.9N 63.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

Hurricane in 120 hours... and a little farther west(again)

[cycloneye]

NHC now forecasts a hurricane (65kts) in 5 days.

[Stratosphere747]

Hurricane in 120 hours... and a little farther west(again)

Sure you are not dreaming Brent?

[dgparent]

Hurricane in 120 hours... and a little farther west(again)

Sure you are not dreaming Brent?

Not according to the NHC he isn't

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

[cycloneye]

705
WTNT44 KNHC 100249
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005

ALTHOUGH IRENE APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF RE-INTENSIFYING
EARLIER TODAY...THAT TREND HAS NOT CONTINUED...AND AT THE MOMENT THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATE THE THE CYCLONE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MOSTLY NORTHERLY
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...THERE HAS BEEN A PLUME OF OUTFLOW CIRRUS
EMANATING NORTHWARD FROM IRENE. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERLY
FLOW...WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE DISRUPTING THE SYSTEM...IS IN A
LAYER BELOW THE OUTFLOW LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A MARGINAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...IF IRENE SURVIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. HENCE THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS...BUT IS NEVERTHELESS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS
AGENCIES. A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS OF LITTLE HELP IN LOCATING
THE CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 280/9. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND A CONTINUATION OF THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT
1-2 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN 3-5 DAYS. A BIG QUESTION IS...HOW WILL
IRENE RESPOND TO THIS RIDGE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD? THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS HIGHLY CREDIBLE...HAS
GENERALLY BEEN TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS
HAD QUITE LOW TRACK ERRORS FOR IRENE...THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT AS FAR
WEST AS THE ECMWF...OR THE NAVY VERSION OF THE GFDL...I.E. THE
GFDN. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. SUBSTANTIAL
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS ALSO A
REFLECTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IRENE WILL BE HEADED BY
THAT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 22.4N 55.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.0N 57.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.0N 59.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.0N 61.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 63.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 66.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 30.0N 71.0W 65 KT

[Coredesat]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100836
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

THERE IS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE THAT IRENE STILL HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LAST NIGHT'S
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES COULD NOT DEFINE A CENTER...AND THE LOW CLOUD
LINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS
ELONGATING AND LIKELY HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. IF THERE
IS A CENTER...IT IS PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION
IN THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF 22N. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
HOWEVER...IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE
DISSIPATING OR RELOCATING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE
PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. IF IRENE
SURVIVES...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME
GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...CALLS FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THIS DISORGANIZED SYSTEM IS HARD TO DETERMINE
BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/10. A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET AND
NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO TAKE IRENE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY SLIDE THIS
HIGH EASTWARD. THE SIMPLER BAM MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE NORTHWEST
TURN. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD A
SIGNIFICANT RIGHT BIAS WHILE THE BAMS HAVE PERFORMED RELATIVELY
WELL. GIVEN THE PRESENT WESTWARD MOTION AND THESE BIASES...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE MEDIUM BAM.

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 22.4N 57.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 22.9N 59.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 23.7N 61.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 24.6N 63.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.7N 65.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.0N 68.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 28.5N 70.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 30.0N 73.0W 50 KT

[Frank2]

Irene seems to be in a strengthening mode once again - remarkable, considering that the system appeared to have dissipated just 3 or 4 hours ago (per the TCD):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

(it doesn't look quite as impressive on the visible loop). It looks like the southeast will need to watch this system carefully...

Frank

[boca]

Is that Irene because on the floater it looks like a completely different system.

[Frank2]

Oops - you are right!

The GOES Storm Floater 1 is an IR view of Fernanda, and the GOES Storm Floater 2, a visible view of Irene (my earlier comments still stand, more or less, though perhaps a bit less).

Frank

P.S. I think all of this Andrew talk the past few days has made me a bit over-the-edgy...

[caribepr]

...a bit over-the-edgy...

GREAT phrase! Definitely stealable

[Frank2]

Thanks - haw - well, looking at the IR loop, the system does seem much better organized over the past several hours:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[RU4REAL]

last night @ 6:50 Dr Lyons appeared to want to write this system off, he talked more about the pacific side having some great surfing coming their way.........(I must say tho, that I'm not one of Dr. Lyons biggest fans) but I am curious as to what some of the posters on this board think..........thanks

[seaswing]

last night @ 6:50 Dr Lyons appeared to want to write this system off, he talked more about the pacific side having some great surfing coming their way.........(I must say tho, that I'm not one of Dr. Lyons biggest fans) but I am curious as to what some of the posters on this board think..........thanks

I heard that one too. I believe that Steve Lyons is very knowledgeable in hurricanes. In fact. I believe he used to work for NHC. The problem is that the WC dictates his script and limits what he can say and not say. John Hope didn't play that game and got into trouble with the WC several times. Steve Lyons was hired and you could definitely tell the differences between their forecasting styles. I liked John Hope much better!

[jax]

this thing is looking better than it ever has...

looks to have convection over the center and
the convection has an obvious rotation to it...

[Buck]

35mph 1009mb

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED AUG 10 2005

...IRENE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST OR ABOUT
810 MILES...1305 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 455 MILES...
730 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
IRENE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 57.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT...HOWEVER...TO
DETERMINE AN EXACT CENTER LCOATION...ESPECIALLY IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...A 24-HOUR
WESTWARD MOTION...AND TRMM AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A 0912Z
QUIKSCAT PASS INTIMATED THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE FARTHER
SOUTH NEAR 21N...BUT I PREFER TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
BETTER DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS FOR SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...EVEN THOUGH THE LONGER TERM
MOTION HAS BEEN 270/08. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY
DISPLAYED A 20-30 DEGREE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THE PAST 48 HOURS.
THIS IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE MODELS HAVE KEPT IRENE WEAK OR
HAVE EVEN DISSIPATED IT...ALL THE WHILE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE CYCLONE FARTHER SOUTH ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM
UW-CIMSS STILL INDICATE A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA WITH
DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
UNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. SO IN THE
SHORT TERM...A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLE...
BARRING ANY NORTHWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BY
DAYS 4-5...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...WITH A HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS ON THE EXTREME LEFT...OR SOUTH ...SIDE OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IF A WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY AND
THE CENTER DOES NOT REFORM FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE TRACK WILL HAVE
TO BE SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
OR SO. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER IS PRODUCING SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR...
AS WELL AS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. THE WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IRENE COULD
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 22.4N 57.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 22.8N 59.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 23.7N 61.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 24.6N 64.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 25.7N 66.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 27.2N 69.3W 55 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 60 KT

[Brent]

Savannah to Virginia Beach now in the 5-day cone:

[wxwatcher91]

NHC now forecasts a hurricane (65kts) in 5 days.

just a note: the United States in now in the forecast cone area. the first points in the cone are along the SC and NC coastlines to the border