Irene Impacts On FL and the Atlantic Ridge

[Hyperstorm]

Again, the trough that will steer Irene is the one moving over the Great Lakes and into the North-East. The weakness is NOT going to go through the Florida Peninsula.

Look at the wording: "SPURIOUS VORT LOBE AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKNESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA DEPICTED BY GFS SEEM SUSPECT."

That is a local effects weakness and nothing more. They simply don't think the weakness will remain over Florida for much longer. It will NOT be a steering factor for Irene.

[gatorcane]

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW IRENE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE EXTREME LEFT...OR SOUTH ...SIDE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IF A WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY AND THE CENTER DOES NOT REFORM FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FL better hope that weakness kicks in...I im inclined to say it does not considering these models seem to like to turn storms north too quickly.....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

our local guys (ruskin) do not think that it will weaken. in fact, they think it is pretty strong. they do feel it will lift from central part of the state northward to the northern part of the state by mon/tue though. -which could keep Irene as a NE Florida hit.

LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...LITTLE CHANGE TO PRESENT FORECAST.
GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE CAN EXPECT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH A RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTH TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS SUBTLE
BUT IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE RIDGE AXIS WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

[gatorcane]

THIS SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE RIDGE AXIS WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

The last time Tampa Bay has had SE winds that lasted several days like this was back in July during Dennis....it's about time they come back