I know an awful lot of people are comparing Irene to Andrew, but I just don't see it. Irene just looks like another of many systems that was sheared, looked pathetic, and then rebounded.
Now....if Irene was to get captured underneath a strong ridge, move ruler-straight west, explosively strengthen to a category 5, and make landfall as a 5 in South Florida, then, yes, it will definitely remind me of Andrew.
Comparisons anyone?.......
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dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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Nice high tops now in Irene, as well as the waves in the southern west Atlantic:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF
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du1st
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du1st
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dixiebreeze
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Like I've said a million times.....
The sooner people get themselves out the habit of storm comparison, the better off they'll be, and the more they'll learn.
Having a general knowledge of storm history is great and helpful. However constantly trying to compare a current storm to famous previous storms is horribly misleading.
It's an understandable impulse (relating something new to something known and familiar) but it's an impulse you have to fight.
If you're going to compare, at least do it in a systematic way...such as the wxunderground historical maps...on there you'll note there are only 4 August TDs that were within 500 miles of where Irene is now and the only landfall is a 1904 storm that hit Florida as a TS.
The problem with comparison is people tend to only compare to a tiny handful of famous storms and ignore the hundreds of similar obscure ones (Andrew, Camille, etc....if I had a nickel for every storm I've seen compared to Andrew since 1995, I'd be able to buy Microsoft; and of course every compared storm ended up NOTHING LIKE Andrew.)
Ironically, the older statistical models like CLIPER, etc. are "comparison" models; they rely on a database of past storms in similar locations and orientations...
And they failed miserably for Andrew; they did in fact show Andrew recurving out to sea.
The relatively new (at the time) dynamical models such as the AVN and GFDL accurately showed Andrew curving back west and hitting Florida, and fortunately NHC went with those models and had a very accurate forecast track for Andrew.
But the point is the great "isn't this storm like..." comparison storm, Andrew, would itself have been horribly forecasted by people comparing sheared TS Andrew to similar storms at the time.
The sooner people get themselves out the habit of storm comparison, the better off they'll be, and the more they'll learn.
Having a general knowledge of storm history is great and helpful. However constantly trying to compare a current storm to famous previous storms is horribly misleading.
It's an understandable impulse (relating something new to something known and familiar) but it's an impulse you have to fight.
If you're going to compare, at least do it in a systematic way...such as the wxunderground historical maps...on there you'll note there are only 4 August TDs that were within 500 miles of where Irene is now and the only landfall is a 1904 storm that hit Florida as a TS.
The problem with comparison is people tend to only compare to a tiny handful of famous storms and ignore the hundreds of similar obscure ones (Andrew, Camille, etc....if I had a nickel for every storm I've seen compared to Andrew since 1995, I'd be able to buy Microsoft; and of course every compared storm ended up NOTHING LIKE Andrew.)
Ironically, the older statistical models like CLIPER, etc. are "comparison" models; they rely on a database of past storms in similar locations and orientations...
And they failed miserably for Andrew; they did in fact show Andrew recurving out to sea.
The relatively new (at the time) dynamical models such as the AVN and GFDL accurately showed Andrew curving back west and hitting Florida, and fortunately NHC went with those models and had a very accurate forecast track for Andrew.
But the point is the great "isn't this storm like..." comparison storm, Andrew, would itself have been horribly forecasted by people comparing sheared TS Andrew to similar storms at the time.
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dixiebreeze
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WeatherEmperor
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Derecho wrote:Like I've said a million times.....
The sooner people get themselves out the habit of storm comparison, the better off they'll be, and the more they'll learn.
Having a general knowledge of storm history is great and helpful. However constantly trying to compare a current storm to famous previous storms is horribly misleading.
It's an understandable impulse (relating something new to something known and familiar) but it's an impulse you have to fight.
If you're going to compare, at least do it in a systematic way...such as the wxunderground historical maps...on there you'll note there are only 4 August TDs that were within 500 miles of where Irene is now and the only landfall is a 1904 storm that hit Florida as a TS.
The problem with comparison is people tend to only compare to a tiny handful of famous storms and ignore the hundreds of similar obscure ones (Andrew, Camille, etc....if I had a nickel for every storm I've seen compared to Andrew since 1995, I'd be able to buy Microsoft; and of course every compared storm ended up NOTHING LIKE Andrew.)
Ironically, the older statistical models like CLIPER, etc. are "comparison" models; they rely on a database of past storms in similar locations and orientations...
And they failed miserably for Andrew; they did in fact show Andrew recurving out to sea.
The relatively new (at the time) dynamical models such as the AVN and GFDL accurately showed Andrew curving back west and hitting Florida, and fortunately NHC went with those models and had a very accurate forecast track for Andrew.
But the point is the great "isn't this storm like..." comparison storm, Andrew, would itself have been horribly forecasted by people comparing sheared TS Andrew to similar storms at the time.
that.......was an incredible post.
<RICKY>
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dwg71 wrote:Irene is not an Andrew, not in path and not in intensity, IMO... and this will not be a south Florida storm. If, and I still say it wont make landfall in US, it does come ashore in US it will be NC. But again I dont see it making it to the US.
give it up Golter...US looking more likely every move west.....crow is not to bad to eat.....
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WeatherEmperor
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ROCK wrote:dwg71 wrote:Irene is not an Andrew, not in path and not in intensity, IMO... and this will not be a south Florida storm. If, and I still say it wont make landfall in US, it does come ashore in US it will be NC. But again I dont see it making it to the US.
give it up Golter...US looking more likely every move west.....crow is not to bad to eat.....
lol yeah boy.
<RICKY>
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