11 am update on irene and also future track, maybe further s

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the 11 am advisory shows further strengthening with irene as the cloud pattern associated with the system becomes better defined. While the low level center is not real defined, there is still a weak closed low level circulation that keeps this system as a depression as opposed to a tropical wave. Further strengthening is indicated during the next 3-5 days.

Irene is located about 810 miles southeast of Bermuda according to the latest 11 am edt advisory issued by the tropical prediction center. Movement is towards the west at 10 mph and this general motion and forward speed is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Further strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 hours and irene could regain tropical storm status later today or on Thursday. Minimum central pressure is 1009 mb or 29.80 inches.

The latest NHC advisory is here on this link and again restates what I mentioned above. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...ml/101439.shtml

The uncertain forecast remains for the next 3-5 days, but the threat to the U.S. east coast is definitely increasing with time as ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone will likely remain fully intact. The impct zone assuming the ridge remains intact to the north of the tropical cyclone could be from the carolinas down to northeast florida. If the ridge is further offshore, it may allow this tropical cyclone to track more up along the eastern seaboard, but that solution seems more unlikely. I think a track from northeast florida up through the carolinas is the best solution for now assuming the ridge remains strong to the north of the Tropical Cyclone. This is subject to change as the margin of error 3-5 days out is extremely large on both the track and especially the intensity.

Jim

[sponger]

Thanks Jim, I will feel more comfortable when it is North of Florida. I am hoping for surf but prefer this one to stay off shore! You spend 5 days praying for it to come closer. By Saturday it will change to not to close!