WATS UP on August 10, 2005

[dhweather]

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Western Atlantic Tropical Summary - WATS UP on August 10, 2005

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/wats20050810.jpg">

I'm tired of looking at dry air on the satellite images, however, it remains
the dominant feature these days.

We have two tropical waves, one in the central Caribbean, and another
approaching the lesser Antilles. I do not expect tropical cyclone
development from either of these in the next 48 hours.

The persistent ULL northeast of the Bahamas looks a bit weaker today,
yet it remains in place. This feature will not develop into a tropical
cyclone. It may, however, have an influence on TD Irene later on.

Speaking of Irene, she's looking a bit better this morning after not
looking well last night. Outflow has improved again in the north
and east quadrants of the system. Dry air continues to be a significant
impediment for the south and west sides of the system.

Irene will continue moving W/WNW over the next couple of days.
If the ULL over the Bahamas stays in place, then we may see
southwesterly shear over Irene develop. I do not expect Irene to
gain hurricane strength.

Down the road, Irene will likely approach the Carolinas as a strong
tropical storm. It is too early to say for sure, but residents on the
southeast coast need to pay careful attention to Irene.

[WindRunner]

I still see a hurricane in Irene. That ULL is going to weaken a little more, move west, and leave a nice moist environment for Irene to thrive in. The outflow should be improving over the next 36hrs as there is almost no dry air left between her and the ULL.

[dhweather]

You're right - the strength of the ULL will be a big player in determining
how strong Irene gets. If the low dissipates and leaves its moisture
around, then Irene may reach cat 1/2 status. Too early to say though.

[storms in NC]

You're right - the strength of the ULL will be a big player in determining
how strong Irene gets. If the low dissipates and leaves its moisture
around, then Irene may reach cat 1/2 status. Too early to say though.

Is that a 1/2 cat or a cat at 1 to 2

[dhweather]

It's 1/2 cat , or maybe a dog.


It's a cat 1 or a cat 2.

We'll have to get closer to the weekend to get a real guess for intensity,
if Irene can establish outflow in the West and South, and the ULL lets up,
passing over the Gulf Stream *could* result in a rapid intensification
cycle. 2005 has seen several of them, so far.

[storms in NC]

It's 1/2 cat , or maybe a dog.


It's a cat 1 or a cat 2.

We'll have to get closer to the weekend to get a real guess for intensity,
if Irene can establish outflow in the West and South, and the ULL lets up,
passing over the Gulf Stream *could* result in a rapid intensification
cycle. 2005 has seen several of them, so far.

And we have very warm water here this year. It is going to be fun seeing all the people the don't live at the beaches come down to move their boats. The roads going east will be full this week-end

[x-y-no]

The ULL is dropping slowly south, and I think this will continue, with a gradual turn SSW around the perimiter of the Caribbean high, which appears to be moving northward. If this happens fast enough, the ULL could an enhancing rather than an inhibiting feature.


I think this is looking more and more like a credible threat to be a Cat 1 or 2 impacting somewhere from N. Florida to the Carolinas.

[dhweather]

Jan - I'd almost went that far today - but the degredation of the system
last night, plus the annoying ULL persuaded me to wait a little longer
before saying it will reach hurricane strength.

Things will likely clear up by tomorrow afternoon on what this will do.

David

[EDR1222]

On another thread, someone mentioned the possibility of dry air becoming a factor later in the period as well as the possibility of influence from the ULL. So there could be some factors that inhibit her becoming very strong. We will have to watch and see what happens.