SE TX - Houston Vicinity

[jasons2k]

Looks to me like with strong heating, the SE portion of this system will move-in and cause some pretty strong thunderstorms, moving into the Houston area from the W and NW later today.

[jasons2k]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>212-101830-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-
WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...
CALDWELL...COLUMBUS...CONROE...HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...SEALY...BELLVILLE
1126 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

.NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE LINE WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH WITH SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BURLESON
COUNTIES.

SOUTH TEXAS REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005
SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLLEGE STN CLOUDY 77 71 82 NE10 30.03F
*CALDWELL CLOUDY 75 72 88 N12 30.06S
*CROCKETT CLOUDY 81 70 69 CALM 30.06F
*BRENHAM CLOUDY 84 73 70 S9 30.01S HX 91
HUNTSVILLE CLOUDY 80 73 79 VRB3 30.05F
CONROE MOSUNNY 87 74 64 S8 30.03S HX 95
HOUSTON BUSH PTSUNNY 86 74 67 S8 30.03S HX 94
HOUSTON HOBBY PTSUNNY 88 75 65 S9 30.02S HX 97
PEARLAND MOSUNNY 88 73 61 S7 30.03F HX 95
HOUSTON HOOKS MOSUNNY 87 75 67 S7 30.02S HX 96
ELLINGTON FLD PTSUNNY 90 77 66 S7 30.04S HX 102
SUGAR LAND SUNNY 87 74 64 S13 30.02S HX 95
*WHARTON MOSUNNY 88 70 55 S15 30.01S HX 92

[dwg71]

It appears most of that will stay to the North of the metroplex.

[jasons2k]

It appears most of that will stay to the North of the metroplex.

The metroplex is Dallas-Fort Worth, and the system is South of there.

This system is building on the south side being fed by a warm, moist LLJ. I expect the southern side to build-in towards Houston later today.

[dwg71]

I meant the Houston metroplex. I dont see much south of I10.

[jasons2k]

I meant the Houston metroplex. I dont see much south of I10.

OK, sorry, I just never use the term "metroplex" generically. For most people metroplex = DFW

Anyway, I do expect this in I-10 corridor later on.

[jasons2k]

[jasons2k]

SOUTH TEXAS REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1200 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

TXZ176>182-195>201-210>213-226-235-101800-
SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLLEGE STN TSTM 75 72 88 VRB5G18 30.03S FOG
*CALDWELL CLOUDY 73 72 94 NW8 30.05F THUNDER
*CROCKETT CLOUDY 84 72 65 W3 30.07S
*BRENHAM CLOUDY 84 72 65 S13G18 30.01S
HUNTSVILLE PTSUNNY 85 74 69 CALM 30.04F HX 92
CONROE MOSUNNY 88 73 61 S8 30.02F HX 95
HOUSTON BUSH PTSUNNY 89 73 59 S12 30.02F HX 97
HOUSTON HOBBY PTSUNNY 89 74 60 S9 30.02S HX 98
PEARLAND MOSUNNY 90 71 53 S7 30.04R HX 96
HOUSTON HOOKS MOSUNNY 90 72 55 S12 30.02S HX 97
ELLINGTON FLD PTSUNNY 91 77 62 S7 30.03F HX 105
SUGAR LAND MOSUNNY 90 74 59 S14 30.02S HX 99
*WHARTON PTSUNNY 90 70 51 S13G18 30.02R HX 95
$$

[jasons2k]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1232 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>212-102000-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...
CALDWELL...COLUMBUS...CONROE...HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...SEALY...BELLVILLE
1232 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

.NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE LINE WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH WITH SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BURLESON
COUNTIES.

[jasons2k]

[jasons2k]

[jasons2k]

[vbhoutex]

With the temp at 95º and plenty of moisture I would not be at all surprised if the S end of this complex begins to build as the abundant GOM moisture is tapped into. That and the probability of a sea breeze front forming will almost assure us of another round of storms this afternoon or evening, imo.

[Canebo]

Great job setting up a thread for our area jschlitz.

As many of us as there are from this area, it should be a very busy thread.

I got almost 2" of rain here in League City yesterday in less than an hour.

[jasons2k]

Actually I'd say the sea breeze today is very diffuse due to very strong southerly flow and brisk surface winds (sea breezes like calmer days).

I'm more concerned about this S flow colliding with an outflow pushing E/SE out of the convection to the NW.

[jasons2k]

Great job setting up a thread for our area jschlitz.

As many of us as there are from this area, it should be a very busy thread.

I got almost 2" of rain here in League City yesterday in less than an hour.

I'm glad to have one going

Been getting some rain here too.

[jasons2k]

2PM CDT Obervations:

TXZ176>182-195>201-210>213-226-235-102000-
SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLLEGE STN TSTM 75 73 93 N5 30.03F FOG
*CALDWELL N/A 72 72 100 W6 30.08R THUNDER
*CROCKETT CLOUDY 86 75 70 CALM 30.05F HX 95
*BRENHAM TSTM 77 72 83 NW20G26 30.02R
HUNTSVILLE PTSUNNY 89 70 53 S8 30.02F HX 94
CONROE MOSUNNY 92 70 48 S13 29.99F HX 97
HOUSTON BUSH PTSUNNY 92 69 47 S10 30.00F HX 97
HOUSTON HOBBY PTSUNNY 92 72 51 SW13 30.00F HX 99
PEARLAND SUNNY 93 68 43 S9 30.03F HX 97
HOUSTON HOOKS MOSUNNY 93 70 46 S14 29.98F HX 99
ELLINGTON FLD PTSUNNY 95 73 49 S10 30.01F HX 105
SUGAR LAND SUNNY 92 70 48 S15 29.99F HX 97
*WHARTON MOSUNNY 91 66 43 S15 30.00F HX 94

[jasons2k]

[jasons2k]

Interesting, cap must be pretty strong, we'll see though...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AND SHOULD NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER AFTER
TONIGHT. CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT (PWS AROUND 2.1 INCHES). TSRA HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS (PWS AROUND 1.4 INCHES) AND WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. WILL GO 50 POPS NORTH...30S CENTRAL...AND ONLY 10S FOR THE COAST THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER NW ZONES TO 30 POPS AFTER 06Z...WITH 20S OR LESS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL COVER THIS IN
AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED ETA SOLUTION IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIODS AS THE GFS HAS BEEN TOO DRY FOR OUR AREA THE LAST FEW RUNS. STEADY DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PWS DROP TO AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES AREAWIDE BY FRI/SAT WITH K-INDICES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S. CAPPING WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSRA IN FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS PERIOD WITH A FEW INLAND SPOTS LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 90S BY FRI/SAT...TYPICAL FOR MID-AUGUST.

NEXT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES PLACE BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES) BEING DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SE TX AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY BEGINNING SUNDAY...BUT STAYING WELL BELOW THE HIGH MEXMOS POPS GIVEN THE LACK OF AN OBVIOUS LIFTING MECHANISM OR LOW LEVEL FOCUS
RIGHT NOW.

[jasons2k]

3:00 PM CDT

SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLLEGE STN PTSUNNY 75 73 94 N7 30.00F
*CALDWELL N/A 73 73 100 N5 30.03F
*CROCKETT CLOUDY 90 73 58 CALM 30.02F THUNDER HX 98
*BRENHAM PTSUNNY 77 73 88 N10 29.98F
HUNTSVILLE TSTM 72 70 94 W10G22 30.05R VSB 1
CONROE PTSUNNY 92 70 48 S9 29.98F HX 97
HOUSTON BUSH PTSUNNY 93 69 45 S9 29.98F HX 98
HOUSTON HOBBY PTSUNNY 92 70 48 S9 29.98F HX 97
PEARLAND SUNNY 93 69 45 VRB7 30.00F HX 98
HOUSTON HOOKS MOSUNNY 93 67 42 S12 29.97F HX 96
ELLINGTON FLD PTSUNNY 93 72 49 MISG 29.99F HX 100
SUGAR LAND MOSUNNY 92 70 48 S10 29.98F HX 97
*WHARTON MOSUNNY 91 61 35 S13 29.97F HX 91