TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[x-y-no]

Motion still looks to be west, but it could be just barely north of west.

I fear I'll be starting another famous motion flamewar but it appears to me that right at the moment Irene began to get better organized it gained a noticeable N of due W component of motion; it's not due NW or anything, but it looks to have jumped right on to the model consensus track (which ends up a tad N of the 11AM NHC advisory track.)

Would you like to come to tonight's meeting of Wobble Watchers Anonymous? I'll be there.

[jabber]

12Z GFS run, which is still rolling out, loses the surface feature (not uncommon) but keeps a feature in the 850, 700 and 500 mb levels tracking pretty far south - not far NE of the northern Bahamas in 96 hours with very strong mid-level ridging above it.

FL

I do not think its going to get anywhere close to Florida.

[flashflood]

It seems like there is a developing ULL to the SW of Irene and in combo with other factors it's moving the upper circulation of Irene from SE to NW thus giving an appearance of a NW movement. According to the latest Vapor Loop, it seems as the main mid to lower convection has not moved much, or a bit north of due west.

btw, what time is that meeting, it sounds like it would be very entertaining.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS run, which is still rolling out, loses the surface feature (not uncommon) but keeps a feature in the 850, 700 and 500 mb levels tracking pretty far south - not far NE of the northern Bahamas in 96 hours with very strong mid-level ridging above it.

FL

I do not think its going to get anywhere close to Florida.

Wel ... I wouldn't rule out N. Florida, although certainly I think the Carolinas are more likely.

I'm most interested in the fact that the GFS is progressively keeping the 500mb ridge strong later with each run, and that it is now tending towards pretty good agreement with the European.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFS run, which is still rolling out, loses the surface feature (not uncommon) but keeps a feature in the 850, 700 and 500 mb levels tracking pretty far south - not far NE of the northern Bahamas in 96 hours with very strong mid-level ridging above it.

FL

I do not think its going to get anywhere close to Florida.

Wel ... I wouldn't rule out N. Florida, although certainly I think the Carolinas are more likely.

I'm most interested in the fact that the GFS is progressively keeping the 500mb ridge strong later with each run, and that it is now tending towards pretty good agreement with the European.

are you serious about the GFS? Do you have a link to a graphic for me?

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

The GFS is starting to scare me for E coast of FL residents...

[WeatherEmperor]

The GFS is starting to scare me for E coast of FL residents...

I dunno. I just wanna see what it says. Have you seen it yet?

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

The GFS is starting to scare me for E coast of FL residents...

If I commented on the GFS peformance with Irene so far..I'd be banned for foul language.

Recurve...recurve...recurve...Florida! Doh!

The 12z GFS has Irene so weak it becomes difficult to track past 96 hours...

its a bit north of the Bahamas at 96 hours..but before that,its much farther north and takes a SW dive?

Past that...I really can't tell.

I have no clue...

And just for kicks..the 12z GFS brings a tropical cyclone into east central Florida at around 324 hours. (Not to be taken seriously..)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Irene is confusing

[WeatherEmperor]

The GFS is starting to scare me for E coast of FL residents...

If I commented on the GFS peformance with Irene so far..I'd be banned for foul language.

Recurve...recurve...recurve...Florida! Doh!

lol!! ah all too funny. But it cannot be ruled out since many of the models require data output from the GFS for their own runs so the models depend on it.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

are you serious about the GFS? Do you have a link to a graphic for me?

<RICKY>

Well, I wouldn't get too excited ... it's trends I'm looking at.

I usually go to the NCEP site for GFS, since it comes out there first. this directory has four subdirectories, one for each run. There are loop pages in there, as well as four-panel displays. There's a"/images" directory under each run directory where you can access the individual images in small/medium/large format if you prefer.

Jan

[gkrangers]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[jasons2k]

The GFS is starting to scare me for E coast of FL residents...

If I commented on the GFS peformance with Irene so far..I'd be banned for foul language.

Recurve...recurve...recurve...Florida! Doh!

The 12z GFS has Irene so weak it becomes difficult to track past 96 hours...

its a bit north of the Bahamas at 96 hours..but before that,its much farther north and takes a SW dive?

Past that...I really can't tell.

I have no clue...

And just for kicks..the 12z GFS brings a tropical cyclone into east central Florida at around 324 hours. (Not to be taken seriously..)

I couldn't agree more. GFS handling of Eastern US been laughable.

[WindRunner]

Well, while everyone is talking about bad models, I'll throw in the MM5.

It stalls Irene NE of the Bahamas at 60-72hrs, and then points it to Savanah, which is still a very possible track (for once!).

[x-y-no]

The GFS is starting to scare me for E coast of FL residents...

If I commented on the GFS peformance with Irene so far..I'd be banned for foul language.

Recurve...recurve...recurve...Florida! Doh!

The 12z GFS has Irene so weak it becomes difficult to track past 96 hours...

its a bit north of the Bahamas at 96 hours..but before that,its much farther north and takes a SW dive?

Past that...I really can't tell.

I have no clue...

And just for kicks..the 12z GFS brings a tropical cyclone into east central Florida at around 324 hours. (Not to be taken seriously..)

Actually, if one ignores surface and just looks at 850, 700 and 500 mb, the GFS has done tolerably. Overall though, the best global for Irene so far has been the European.

[Ivanhater]

wow, they do have a strong ridge by day 5 going across florida in 120 hours....i wonder how much this is going to affect the models

[gkrangers]

The GFS is starting to scare me for E coast of FL residents...

If I commented on the GFS peformance with Irene so far..I'd be banned for foul language.

Recurve...recurve...recurve...Florida! Doh!

The 12z GFS has Irene so weak it becomes difficult to track past 96 hours...

its a bit north of the Bahamas at 96 hours..but before that,its much farther north and takes a SW dive?

Past that...I really can't tell.

I have no clue...

And just for kicks..the 12z GFS brings a tropical cyclone into east central Florida at around 324 hours. (Not to be taken seriously..)

Actually, if one ignores surface and just looks at 850, 700 and 500 mb, the GFS has done tolerably. Overall though, the best global for Irene so far has been the European.

Hey, I will have NO sound logic brought into my GFS bashing!

[WeatherEmperor]

wow, they do have a strong ridge by day 5 going across florida in 120 hours....i wonder how much this is going to affect the models

Im not good at reading those maps so I will let you guys do the more advanced work and decipher it.

<RICKY>

[jasons2k]

Well, while everyone is talking about bad models, I'll throw in the MM5.

It stalls Irene NE of the Bahamas at 60-72hrs, and then points it to Savanah, which is still a very possible track (for once!).

Yes, and someone had a Savannah thread going and it disappeared.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70030

[DESTRUCTION5]

are you serious about the GFS? Do you have a link to a graphic for me?

<RICKY>

Well, I wouldn't get too excited ... it's trends I'm looking at.

I usually go to the NCEP site for GFS, since it comes out there first. this directory has four subdirectories, one for each run. There are loop pages in there, as well as four-panel displays. There's a"/images" directory under each run directory where you can access the individual images in small/medium/large format if you prefer.

Jan

Yep Landfall on the EC FL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml