UNOFFICIAL...Irene #9; long discussion/cane in 96 hours/WNW

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 9:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... irene.html

Very long forecast this afternoon, as I try to consider many variables. The forecast track is on the southern end of guidance, and the intensity forecast allows for a hurricane in 96 hours, and includes several variables, a few of which are unknown later in the forecast period, increasing the uncertainty. Track forecast confidence remains pretty good, but we need a day or two more to figure things out for sure. Note the cone of uncertainty, which is based on my average forecast error.

Scott

[yoda]

Nice write-up and good map.

[WindRunner]

I like the discussion and love the map. The discussion goes into more detail than most anything I've seen on here all day.