Florida

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #21 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:07 pm

"TB Hurricane loses his sanity entirely"

:boog:

OKay i am a newbie and very confused too...

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #22 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:15 pm

Anyways, I never said a FL landfall is IMPOSSIBLE. Yeah models could shift that's a good point. I will monitor this scenario.

Anyhow, my new info indicates that the ridge could strengthen.
This differs from my earlier forecast due to the fact that I did not have this info back then. So anyways FL watch out. Everyone up to Virginia from here watch out.

I will generate new opinions as I get this new info. Sorry for the flip-flop
folks but some unanticipated data was the cause.

#23 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:16 pm

Tampa Bay is safe from Irene, I could almost guarantee that...it's the East coast of FL that could be hit...(maybe)

#24 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:17 pm

All i have to say is "emily" is still going to go north like the models kept saying up until landfall??? She kept going west-wnw. I am not comparing the two, but simply showing that the models are fallible to say the least.

jdray · #25 Postby **jdray** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:18 pm

Florida is about 30.6N and south of there.

The ridge is forecast to hang in about 30-31N.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #26 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:20 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

okey doke, my new unofficial projected path takes the system into land in SE Georgia based on ridge calculations. If my prediction pans out NE
FL will feel impacts. But my cone of error is from West Palm Beach to
North Carolina.

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:20 pm

what does this crow thing mean anyway?

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #28 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:21 pm

I think it means when you make a prediction that turns out to be incorrect

#29 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:22 pm

boca_chris wrote:what does this crow thing mean anyway?

i have no clue whatsoever. all i know is that when one ends up being wrong they are typically being served some crow. who came up with that expression of eating crow anyways?

<RICKY>

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #30 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:24 pm

Yes it is a pretty funky expression I'd like to know who came up with it.

Hurricaneman · #31 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:24 pm

boca_chris wrote:what does this crow thing mean anyway?

It means that you were wrong about your forecast

jdray · #32 Postby **jdray** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:27 pm

Something else to think about:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Even a strong Cat 3/4 can be influenced by a ridge.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #33 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:28 pm

About the crow, assume one is wrong, one has no prescriptive force
obligating him/her to eat crow :lol:

Just Joking.

#34 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:28 pm

Amazing. Dora formed right at the coast of Africa as a TD and still made landfall as a major hurricane in FL.

<RICKY>

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #35 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:29 pm

Dora was one tricky critter.

#36 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:29 pm

Wow! Dora basically came off Africa as a named one...talk about a long tracker - sheesh. Starbucks would've made a mint if they'd been around in '64 LOL

#37 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:31 pm

About the crow, assume one is wrong, one has no prescriptive force
obligating him/her to eat crow Just Joking.

lol

#38 Postby **fci** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:35 pm

wxwonder12 wrote:I think the Sunshine State is in the clear

Again, after Jeanne last year, until I SEE a turn to the WNW or NW; I am not comfortable with "models" and "projections".
Seeing is believing to me and everyone can guess all they want but until it actually gets North of my 26.6 (actually about 28.0 to take me out of the worst part); I'm watching closely!

#39 Postby **feederband** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:37 pm

boca_chris wrote:what does this crow thing mean anyway?

Don't know but I just saw a Crow dragging a advertisement that said EAT MORE CHICKEN....Don't know what that was about... :wink:

elysium · #40 Postby **elysium** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:39 pm

Well, actually Tampabay, the ridge has pretty much collapsed on the western periphery. You might have gotten hold of the 12Z, however, most of the models are about 24 hrs. behind, so the GFS will not show the collapse until 00Z at the earliest.

You can only use model guidance for assistance in eliminating some of the possibilities. Model guidance also points you in the right direction on what to look for often enough to make it indispensable as a navigational tool. But you never take the models at face value. The models are almost always wrong. They are excellent for dectecting possible trends, but even the validity of an indicated trend must not be so readily assumed if it is based on a particular model or other.

The models will show the ridge collapse in the 00Z or 06Z. There are a couple of waves east to watch however.

Florida

Who is online