TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WindRunner]

Woohoo, 1500!

[Aquawind]

10/1745 UTC 22.3N 57.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Paul

When you get the numbers for intensity, how does it knows the storms position?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Paul

It seems she has stayed basically west (Below 22.5) How long
will this last?3-5 days?Wouldn't that be something?

Well the forecast is for continued WNW track.. The confidence in the ridging seems pretty high considering the 5pm lengthy discussion.. The stronger systems get the more poleward motion is the norm so we will see. But at this point it seems like the ridging and the fact it's a weaker/smaller system leads me to think more west is no surprise..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2042.shtml


Paul

[SouthFloridawx]

I know that most people don't like the FSU mm5 but, here is the latest anyway.

[deltadog03]

believe it or not...that model has not done that bad...with this storm anyway

[SouthFloridawx]

a couple of days it made sharp northwest turn and the mm5 predicted it and no other model did. This is a pretty wide cone of error and I think the models will change again. We are having east winds here in boynton beach :

E to ESE @ 10-15 MPH all day pressure at 30.03

I will watch it and see if the ridge build stronger here....

[gatorcane]

Yes a little South in Boca near the beach E at about 10 but that is mostly a seabreeze caused by the heating of the day. Last night and this morning very little wind. Also, notice the inland storms are close to the coast again...the ridge is not that strong yet.

[SouthFloridawx]

do you think we are going to see more of an westerly track soon?

[deltadog03]

certainly possible

[huricanwatcher]

for all forum members... along florida and up the eastern shore..


Anybody noticing birds doing anything strange in your neck of the woods?....

[storms in NC]

for all forum members... along florida and up the eastern shore..


Anybody noticing birds doing anything strange in your neck of the woods?....

Like?

[Swimdude]

Very interesting ridge we're dealing with... That'll make the difference. I'm kind of wondering why we're letting this thread go so long... Wasn't the deal 15 pages?

[huricanwatcher]

for all forum members... along florida and up the eastern shore..


Anybody noticing birds doing anything strange in your neck of the woods?....

Like?

they disappear or act up, or get very quiet with an approaching storm... and other strange things from what i have read

[gatorcane]

I just don't see it going much more W. I expect a WNW track from here....and I think that FL is pretty safe from this one...

About the birds....it's funny you say that. They seem to have sixth sense about these storms. For example, I was in the Tampa Bay area when Charley was supposed to hit...but on the morning of the day the storm was going to hit I took a drive along one of the causeways and noticed the birds were out and about as if nothing was going to happen....sure enough Charley missed Tampa by 150 miles....

If you are seeing birds do weird things in NC I would take this as a signal...really.

[storms in NC]

I have a bird that is weird. He think he is a watch dog. lets me know when someone is here.

[deltadog03]

well, that ridge should be plenty strong...i could see a west track to land...

[gkrangers]

This 85ghz pass is about 1 hour old. Someone who knows more about it can expand on it...is this a good way of identifying a low level center? Looks like a nice little band there..

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey guys check this out. The GFDL has gone berserk. it is now also "plowing"(forgive me for stealing your terminology forecaster Stewart) Irene through the ridge much like the UKMET.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Ivanhater]

Hey guys check this out. The GFDL has gone berserk. it is not also "plowing"(forgive me for stealing your terminology forecaster Stewart) Irene through the ridge much like the UKMET.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

this is very disturbing, the models are not handling the ridge very well

[gkrangers]

Well heres the thing tho...the NHC will hug the GFS/GFDL at times.

So if the GFDL does basically the same thing as the UKMET, will they discredit the GFDL, or consider it possible?

I mean..Stewart kicked the UKMET in the nuts and threw it down a flight of stairs earlier today.

[WindRunner]

Hey guys check this out. The GFDL has gone berserk. it is not also "plowing"(forgive me for stealing your terminology forecaster Stewart) Irene through the ridge much like the UKMET.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

this is very disturbing, the models are not handling the ridge very well

Or is there something coming that none of us can see (for some reason)?

I'm waiting for the 00Z runs before saying more.