TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[storms in NC]

Well to tell the truth I have never seen them so close together. Most of the time you have them going everywhere till you get 5-3 days from land fall

[Ivanhater]

Well heres the thing tho...the NHC will hug the GFS/GFDL at times.

So if the GFDL does basically the same thing as the UKMET, will they discredit the GFDL, or consider it possible?

I mean..Stewart kicked the UKMET in the nuts and threw it down a flight of stairs earlier today.

ya, with that last discussion, i doubt they will give much credit to the gfdl

[WeatherEmperor]

Well to tell the truth I have never seen them so close together. Most of the time you have them going everywhere till you get 5-3 days from land fall

true. i wonder why they both just race Irene off to the NW like that when the ridge will be in its path. I want to see what the other models are gonna do at 00Z.

<RICKY>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes I agree I cannot figure out why the models go NW when the ridge is supposed to build in...I am very confused.

[johngaltfla]

Hey guys check this out. The GFDL has gone berserk. it is not also "plowing"(forgive me for stealing your terminology forecaster Stewart) Irene through the ridge much like the UKMET.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

this is very disturbing, the models are not handling the ridge very well

It's not a suprise to me. They haven't sent any recon out to measure the strength of the ridge so how the heck are the models supposed to take that data into account??????

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Allright that explains it...the recon part...so THAT's why the models will not incorporate the ridge...thanks for the info

[webke]

I may not be right, but the UTC time for that plot was 1800, if you click on
tropics home and them Irene the time changes to 2300 UTC.

[gkrangers]

Allright that explains it...the recon part...so THAT's why the models will not incorporate the ridge...thanks for the info

I wouldn't say thats the reason. When recon data is inputted, it helps..but it doesn't take away from the fact that the models generally struggle mightily with ridging at times.

[johngaltfla]

Allright that explains it...the recon part...so THAT's why the models will not incorporate the ridge...thanks for the info

Don't quote me as the gospel on that. But I was discussing this subject last night with a professional met and he said the last data from the NOAA jet on the ridge was 30 HOURS old...and that was 20 hours ago! So without strong firm data, I don't see how the models can figure this out.

Check this out....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

(sorry, edited to fix typo...that should read 30 HOURS, not years!)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh yes the models do indeed struggle with ridging. Those facts must be considered...thus why I think NHC's path is a little too far north IMO.

[du1st]

Does the NHC do a 8am advisory?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yup but it's not a full package with a new track (new track at 5 and 11)

[huricanwatcher]

go away Irene, NC dont want you to come visiting..


http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr ... UHAI_2.GIF

[krisj]

Tampa Bay, why do you think the NHC track is a bit north when the models seem to be itching their way north? I am just curious.

[du1st]

Why are the models doing that when the ridge is so strong?

[du1st]

Why are the models doing that when the ridge is so strong?

[gkrangers]

Yup but it's not a full package with a new track (new track at 5 and 11)

3 hourly advisories are only initiated if warnings/watches are up.

For now, we only get 6 hourly advisories.

[gkrangers]

Why are the models doing that when the ridge is so strong?

If we knew, we'd be able to program better models...

[sma10]

I just don't see it going much more W. I expect a WNW track from here....and I think that FL is pretty safe from this one...

About the birds....it's funny you say that. They seem to have sixth sense about these storms. For example, I was in the Tampa Bay area when Charley was supposed to hit...but on the morning of the day the storm was going to hit I took a drive along one of the causeways and noticed the birds were out and about as if nothing was going to happen....sure enough Charley missed Tampa by 150 miles....

If you are seeing birds do weird things in NC I would take this as a signal...really.

While I do agree that animals have that ability to sense weather phenomena, I have a really hard time believing that they can sense a hurricane's landfall 6 TO 7 DAYS in advance.

[gkrangers]

I may not be right, but the UTC time for that plot was 1800, if you click on
tropics home and them Irene the time changes to 2300 UTC.

The GFDL doesn't actually get plotted on that site until around 2300...while the limited area models (BAM, LBAR) update quickly...the GFDL plot comes out later and doesn't get updated until a few hours after its run time.

So 18z gets plotted around 23z...12z gets plotted around 17z..etc..