TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

Why are the models doing that when the ridge is so strong?

If we knew, we'd be able to program better models...

actually you can take this one step further and say that if we knew we wouldnt even be here right now. We would be millionaires at some convention signing autographs to our new books on how to forecast tropical cyclone forecast tracks and landfalls.

<RICKY>

[du1st]

Sorry for the repeat.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa Bay, why do you think the NHC track is a bit north when the models seem to be itching their way north? I am just curious.

The reason is that I think the models are underestimating the strength
of the ridge to build in, like they did last year with Jeanne. The fact
that the models are itching north is very confusing to me.

[shaggy]

its funny how the models bring the system towards the SE coast and not Florida and everyone is 2nd guessing all the models but if those same models were showing a gommer or florida threat they would be the gospel.The stronger Irene gets the more poleward she will want to go so now its a wait and see what happens with her.

[johngaltfla]

Why are the models doing that when the ridge is so strong?

Check out my answer on the previous page. IMHO, I don't think the models have the data to do anything with the ridge. Until the recon can get out there, measure the storm and the ridge, everything is just speculation.

Also, what is disturbing, is that this is the same type of ridge that set up for us Floridians about 1 year ago this week.

Leading to August 13, 2004.

[Ivanhater]

its funny how the models bring the system towards the SE coast and not Florida and everyone is 2nd guessing all the models but if those same models were showing a gommer or florida threat they would be the gospel.The stronger Irene gets the more poleward she will want to go so now its a wait and see what happens with her.

actually no, the upper level steering flow is east to west, very odd but if irene strengthens it will go more west

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

ncdowneast- Well the models have a bias of underestimating the ridge. They may turn out to be correct, but I think there's a chance the track will shift slightly south, maybe not all the way to central FL, but perhaps a little further south of the Outer Banks

[du1st]

what is up with that one model that says irene will go SW?

[deltadog03]

the tropical models shifted south at 18z

[storms in NC]

[quote="ncdowneast"]its funny how the models bring the system towards the SE coast and not Florida and everyone is 2nd guessing all the models but if those same models were showing a gommer or florida threat they would be the gospel.The stronger Irene gets the more poleward she will want to go so now its a wait and see what happens with her.[/quote

how true. They can have her.But I am afraid we are the ones that will see her.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

deltadog I just lost the link- can you provide the link for 18z

[deltadog03]

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

storms in NC- that does not apply to ME because I am basing my forecast
off of accounting for the natural biases of the models to underestimate the ridge's strength. I do not wishcast. I would not want to see another storm impact Florida.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you for the link Deltadog

Edit: Ahhhh it's not loading....

[deltadog03]

yw

[deltadog03]

hmm

[storms in NC]

storms in NC- that does not apply to ME because I am basing my forecast
off of accounting for the natural biases of the models to underestimate the ridge's strength. I do not wishcast. I would not want to see another storm impact Florida.

I either I have 2 kids in Ft Myers,Fla

[johngaltfla]

deltadog I just lost the link- can you provide the link for 18z

TBH, here's another link for ya:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[wzrgirl1]

not loading for me either

[deltadog03]

thanks...i like that one better....