TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Sanibel]

Oh boy guys, it's still west!

[WindRunner]

Where's the 00Z models? Shouldn't they have come out at 8? I checked the text site as well, but they weren't there.

[ncweatherwizard]

2.5 from SAB now; we've got a tropical storm again.

Scott

[Derek Ortt]

we've got a TS estimate. Waiting for TAFB's estimate and going to check the QS first

[gkrangers]

10/2345 UTC 23.0N 58.6W T2.5/2.5 IRENE

[wxmann_91]

not loading for me either

(and for TBH also)

That link won't work, use this link:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[wzrgirl1]

Oh boy guys, it's still west!

Can you send a link showing this please? Thanks!

[sma10]

2.5 from SAB now; we've got a tropical storm again.

Scott

I was just going to comment that Irene seems a lot better organized tonight and would not be surprised if NHC upgraded her tonight at 11.

[shaggy]

theres a ship 68 miles from the center reporting winds of 34knts sustained so it may be upgraded at 11pm.

For the record i don't want this storm either however NHC long range forecasting has been good so far this year and it may be a little further south but it still will feel the weakness at some point and try to turn when where and how strong she is is going to be the question!

[SunnyThoughts]

Seems to me she better start gaining more latitude in the next 24 hours or those models will end up moving even farther south..but thats just my thoughts.

[WindRunner]

Is there a link to get the Dvorak numbers? I haven't found one so far.

[huricanwatcher]

taking into account the only three that actually carry any weight.....

BAMD, BAHM, NHC ........ im outta here

[jrod]

I'm looking at upper-level winds in advance of Irene. The very low-level flow would indicate a turn to the NW and N west of Bermuda in a few days, as Derek has been saying. If I plot mean 700mb-400mb wind streamlines, they show a ridge building along the east coast.

What this means is that if Irene remains a sheared TD or wave, then it would most likely turn northward well east of the U.S. coast as per the current NHC track. However, if Irene were to intensify significantly, it may well head more to the west, possibly threatening the east U.S. coast.

It's quite unusual when the low-level flow would indicate a northerly turn and the mid-upper level flow steers a system more westerly. Normally it's just the reverse.
...

I really had to dig to find this post from 1030 yesterday.

Has the trend changed? Now everyone is saying the stronger she gets the more north she'll go like a normal tropical system.

[deltadog03]

Oh boy guys, it's still west!

the 00z models?? liked moved west?

[wzrgirl1]

Oh boy guys, it's still west!

the 00z models?? liked moved west?

That's what I am trying to figure out too.

[deltadog03]

I'm looking at upper-level winds in advance of Irene. The very low-level flow would indicate a turn to the NW and N west of Bermuda in a few days, as Derek has been saying. If I plot mean 700mb-400mb wind streamlines, they show a ridge building along the east coast.

What this means is that if Irene remains a sheared TD or wave, then it would most likely turn northward well east of the U.S. coast as per the current NHC track. However, if Irene were to intensify significantly, it may well head more to the west, possibly threatening the east U.S. coast.

It's quite unusual when the low-level flow would indicate a northerly turn and the mid-upper level flow steers a system more westerly. Normally it's just the reverse.
...

I really had to dig to find this post from 1030 yesterday.

Has the trend changed? Now everyone is saying the stronger she gets the more north she'll go like a normal tropical system.

It dosn't matter...it depends on the ridge building in upstream...or i should say its already there...

[Ivanhater]

im confused!!!, have the new models come out???

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you all for links...

[gkrangers]

872
WHXX01 KWBC 110036
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050811 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050811 0000 050811 1200 050812 0000 050812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 59.2W 24.3N 61.4W 25.5N 63.7W 26.8N 65.6W
BAMM 23.2N 59.2W 24.2N 61.4W 25.3N 63.4W 26.5N 65.1W
A98E 23.2N 59.2W 24.1N 61.6W 25.3N 63.7W 27.0N 65.5W
LBAR 23.2N 59.2W 24.4N 61.3W 25.5N 63.2W 26.7N 64.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050813 0000 050814 0000 050815 0000 050816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.9N 67.2W 29.5N 69.7W 31.8N 71.7W 34.5N 71.3W
BAMM 27.5N 66.3W 28.9N 68.2W 30.2N 69.9W 31.8N 70.8W
A98E 28.4N 67.3W 31.6N 70.6W 34.7N 71.5W 37.7N 64.5W
LBAR 27.8N 66.0W 28.8N 68.0W 30.1N 69.6W 31.1N 70.8W
SHIP 53KTS 60KTS 63KTS 67KTS
DSHP 53KTS 60KTS 63KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 59.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 57.2W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 55.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gkrangers]

Pretty big shift to the right.