TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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gkrangers

#1621 Postby gkrangers » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:05 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:just go to the site on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml at the bottom of the page and click on hi res

they have the latest pass there and Tropical Wave Irene remains wide open
Thanks..the center was right on the edge of that..the 12.5km makes things easier to see, I'd been looking at 25km.
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shaggy
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#1622 Postby shaggy » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:06 pm

latest models show a major shift east unless i am a idiot and do not know how to look at the graphics here. Now looks like a miss to the east for the mid atlantic much like the global models have been suggesting.


http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php
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superfly

#1623 Postby superfly » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:07 pm

This is not an open wave, the surface circulation is likely very tight which causes quickscat to miss it.
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#1624 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:07 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:just go to the site on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml at the bottom of the page and click on hi res

they have the latest pass there and Tropical Wave Irene remains wide open


Tropical WAVE Irene? This seems to me to be an indirect insult to the NHC. It gives the impression that you are mocking them.
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Derek Ortt

#1625 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:08 pm

the 12.5km is a lot better. The fact that it shows an open wave means that this is almost certainly an open wave as it can resolve these small circulations, where the 25km version may not have been able to
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Thunder44
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#1626 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:08 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:just go to the site on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml at the bottom of the page and click on hi res

they have the latest pass there and Tropical Wave Irene remains wide open


Derek, you're the only met I see calling this an "open wave" on anywhere. Even Dr. Lyons thought this was becoming a TS tonight. QS should be used as a tool in finding a closed surface circulation, not a single determining factor. You can't just ignore organzation seen on satellite images all day long.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1627 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:08 pm

well, whatever...this is not all a HUGE deal...that its tracking WNW and not W...her fate will ultimately be decided by the ridge...
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storms in NC
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#1628 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:08 pm

ncdowneast wrote:latest models show a major shift east unless i am a idiot and do not know how to look at the graphics here. Now looks like a miss to the east for the mid atlantic much like the global models have been suggesting.


http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php


not so fast Downeast. lets wait a few days and see what happens
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#1629 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:10 pm

My mistake. I looked at a longer loop and it has pulled up WNW since this afternoon...
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#1630 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Could someone at least tell me where the Dvorak numbers come from?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


Thanks, cycloneye.
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#1631 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:10 pm

wow, some people like to jump on a bandwagon very quick....calm down, we all now models flip flop...this could just be one of those flops....dont try to make it gospel
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1632 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:11 pm

If they went 100 percent on the quickscats Emily would of been a tropical wave for a run or two. Wow would that be a amazing most powerful tropical wave to ever cross the caribbean. Its a tool for forecasters not the end of the world.
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#1633 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:12 pm

HAHAHAHAHA...the new model spread is quite funny...im amazed
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Sanibel
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#1634 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:14 pm

It went poleward after contacting the troughiness this afternoon.


It should get progressively better as each pulse loses less convection.

West Atlantic is not supporting storms...
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#1635 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:14 pm

Makes either the NHC track or the models look a little crazy.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1636 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:15 pm

Are we with in range of recon??? I hope they did not spend all there funds up already.

That would tell us the story.
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#1637 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:16 pm

ITS NOT moving poleward...that gets blown waaaay out of porportion...It simply redeveloped further north...look at the sat...she is not pulling out...
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fci
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#1638 Postby fci » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:16 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:for all forum members... along florida and up the eastern shore..


Anybody noticing birds doing anything strange in your neck of the woods?....



No but an incredible sunset here in Palm Beach County

However, I must admit it was probabaly due to T-Storm blowoff....
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#1639 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:17 pm

The ridicule the UKMET took at 5PM discussion was a little premature, I think everyone including the NHC needs to apologize to the UKMET. It was just the leader.
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#1640 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:18 pm

leader of the wrong forecast track maybe...read the 5pm disco...NOTHING will get through that ridge.....that is a strong ridge
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