EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
920 PM WED AUG 9TH 2005
Irene continues to slowly organize this evening as she tries to regain tropical storm status. Most even say she'll probably regain TS status by morning.
Her re-organization is a result of being impacted by the warmer waters and the lack of apparent shear in the area. This is helping Irene stay together instead of fading as she barely holds on.
Irene should begin to intensify again around her environment. This will cause her to gain strength and possibly allow her to become more well defined. I will not be surprised to see her somehow become a hurricane, but with the past damage she had suffered from her core being exposed. It may take a lot of work for her to get that strong.
The interesting part of the forecast is that now it's starting to look more and more likely she may decide to make landfall along the SE coast. The 5 day cone has a bulls eye around the SC/NC border. But the cone of uncertainty extends as far south as Northern Central Florida, and as far north as The DelMarva Peninsula.
My official forecast currently calls for Irene to actually stay away from Florida. Yes I actually am not calling for it to come here
at least not as of yet. Expecting a landfall along the SC coast, but a little south of the NHC's point. Though landfall wouldn't probably be till Monday or even Tuesday.
Here's a look at my experimental 5 day forecast on Irene:
Tonight: Reorganizing. Becoming a TS again. Max winds: 45 mph
Thursday: Staying well to the north of PR or the DR. Max winds: 50 mph
Friday: Well to the NE of the Southern Bahamas. Max winds: 55 mph
Saturday: Just East of the Central Bahamas. Max winds: 60 mph
Sunday: Beginning to make a trek towards South Carolina. Watches and warnings may be issued. Max Winds: 70 mph
