Central Atlantic Wave

[Ivanhater]

there seems to a low pressure center forming in the central atlantic between africa and the islands......all the thunderstorms are pulling together and steve lyons said "this will probably be out next system"....comments welcome

[ConvergenceZone]

there seems to a low pressure center forming in the central atlantic between africa and the islands......all the thunderstorms are pulling together and steve lyons said "this will probably be out next system"....comments welcome

well, it's getting to be that time of year!

[du1st]

Unlees it is Irene it is history!

[WindRunner]

I assume you mean the one between 30W and 40W. There is a ton of convection and this will be another huge system if/when it develops.

[gkrangers]

I assume you mean the one between 30W and 40W. There is a ton of convection and this will be another huge system if/when it develops.

We thought that about Irene too...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes but more moisture is moving into this area...so IMO this has a better environment than Irene had.

[WindRunner]

It certainley does have a better environment, the SAL isn't as strong near it, and it can sacrifice some of the moisture to survive through what is there.

[Ivanhater]

i wouldnt be suprised to see a depression form in the next couple of days

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[gkrangers]

Very low lattitude..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like it could be a low rider...interesting to watch

[Scorpion]

It does look decent. Perhaps if the ridge is weaker this can be a threat to FL down the road.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should
not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster
and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological
data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution
including storm2k.org For Official Information please
refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Too early to tell but I just got a SCARY THOUGHT!:
Not a wishcast.

Recall the Frances-Ivan Scenario, but the ridge is
weaker, so the "Frances=Irene except Irene most
likely to Carolinas, but the Ivan = Jose, but Jose would
curve earlier if a weaker B-High Persits = East of Ivan =
Too close to FL West coast for Comfort??


Was there mention of a trough 6-7 days down? If so that may curve it early = West coast and East coast of Florida will need to watch what may
become of this wave.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Any thoughts people (of my above post)?^^^^ I know it's
too early to tell, but please
tell me if I am insane.

[Scorpion]

I agree. Weaker ridge, low tracker = threat to FL

[gpickett00]

I'm from the east coast of Florida and I think it is ridiculous that anyone would suspect Florida 10-14 days out. -removed- at its finest

[Scorpion]

ok...

[gkrangers]

Speculating on the possible landfall of an undeveloped wave thats 2 weeks away is not really necessary.

[Scorpion]

We're not speculating, just stating possible scenarios(also hinted by the GFS). Also this is a wx board we should be able to go all the way out there.

[Swimdude]

Now, now. Let's watch the -removed-. But let's remember that Steve Lyons really did say that this might be our next storm... Anyone watch the 4:50 central tropical update on TWC...?

[gkrangers]

Ok...I think sometime in the next 3 months, a tropical cyclone will develop in the Atlantic and threaten the US.