What are local mets are saying about Irene in your area??
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What are local mets are saying about Irene in your area??
Our local mets are very concerned about Irene and said it needs to be watched.
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WindRunner
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Rainband
Really??Sanibel wrote:They repeat NHC - which is the SC/NC border...
000
FXUS62 KTBW 101700
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FL TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FL BY THURSDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION A BIT...WITH ONLY A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED
EACH DAY. LIGHT E/SE FLOW WILL BECOME SW IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE
SEABREEZE. TEMPS REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...MODELS BEGINNING TO DIFFER IN LONG
TERM. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WITH SFC BERMUDA HIGH AXIS OVER N FL. THIS EXPECTED
TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO THE
AREA.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS SEEMS OVERDONE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE CLOSING
OFF UPPER LOW OVER NE FL/SE GA. DGEX BARELY HAS THIS FEATURE AT ALL
AND ECMWF ONLY SHOWING WEAKNESS IN UPPER RIDGE. WHILE AT THE SFC
GFS HAS SFC LOW/TROF DRAPED FROM THE GA COAST INTO THE N GULF WHILE
DGEX HOLDS THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE N OF THE AREA AND ECMWF
CONTINUES SOME RIDGING AS WELL. ALSO THROWN INTO THE MIX COULD BE TD
IRENE AS NHC FCST CONE OF ERROR EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN DAY 5. IF EVENTUAL TRACK COMES CLOSE TO THE
REGION WOULD SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE AHEAD AND AROUND FEATURE TO LOWER
POPS AND RAISE TEMPS. SO...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN UPPER AND
SFC FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEKS FCST. WILL HOLD OFF ON MAJOR CHANGES TO
SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ADDITIONAL MODELS CYCLES.
&&
.MARINE...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT
E/SE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BECOMING W/SW IN THE AFTERNOONS
FROM THE SEABREEZE. SEAS TO REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 91 77 91 / 20 40 20 40
FMY 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
GIF 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
SRQ 76 91 76 91 / 20 40 20 40
BKV 73 92 73 92 / 20 40 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....RD
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FXUS61 KBOX 102001
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED
INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -5 AND CAPES AVERAGING 1500 J/KG AWAY FROM S
COAST. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM PRESENT...ACTIVITY
WILL FORM ON S COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING N THROUGH
CT...RI AND SE MA AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT (E SLOPES OF
BERKSHIRES...MONADNOCKS AND WORCESTER HILLS).
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS UP TO 500 MB WITH W-NW 15-
20KT WIND ABOVE THAT... SO WE EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LIMITED SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE ALONG. SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT AND HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
IF ANY 50 DBZ CORES CAN GET INTO MID 20KFT RANGE.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO S COAST.
GFS/NAM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN BRINGING COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THU...MAINLY BEFORE TIME OF MAX HEATING. MODELS DO SLOW IT
DOWN AS IT REACHES I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY IN AFTERNOON AND ONLY BRING IT
TO S COAST THU EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN MAX INSTABILITY SE OF
PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR...AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY STABILIZES
DURING DAY FARTHER N AND W. WE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
FRONT IN MUCH OF INTERIOR THU MORNING...AND ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS THU
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF I-95 WHERE A GREATER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EXISTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT NEAR S
COAST...AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER WE COULD SEE PULSE STORMS ATTEMPT TO
ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES WHICH COULD BRING SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
CRITERIA (35KT GUSTS).
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY END THU EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH S TO ALLOW MORE OF AN
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY THEN HEADS OFF COAST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS THU NIGHT
WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO 50S! NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW
ENGLAND FRI AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE 10/12Z GFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN WENT WITH
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE 10/06Z GFS. PLENTY OF
SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS AS WELL. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE
FORECAST TO REACH THE OUTER BANKS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST TPC BULLETINS REGARDING IRENE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING
EAST WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING FIRM...AND IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE SUNDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH.
THIS FRONT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
USED A BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...LEANING MORE
HEAVILY TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE WARMER.
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED
INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -5 AND CAPES AVERAGING 1500 J/KG AWAY FROM S
COAST. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM PRESENT...ACTIVITY
WILL FORM ON S COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING N THROUGH
CT...RI AND SE MA AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT (E SLOPES OF
BERKSHIRES...MONADNOCKS AND WORCESTER HILLS).
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS UP TO 500 MB WITH W-NW 15-
20KT WIND ABOVE THAT... SO WE EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LIMITED SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE ALONG. SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT AND HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
IF ANY 50 DBZ CORES CAN GET INTO MID 20KFT RANGE.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO S COAST.
GFS/NAM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN BRINGING COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THU...MAINLY BEFORE TIME OF MAX HEATING. MODELS DO SLOW IT
DOWN AS IT REACHES I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY IN AFTERNOON AND ONLY BRING IT
TO S COAST THU EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN MAX INSTABILITY SE OF
PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR...AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY STABILIZES
DURING DAY FARTHER N AND W. WE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
FRONT IN MUCH OF INTERIOR THU MORNING...AND ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS THU
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF I-95 WHERE A GREATER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EXISTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT NEAR S
COAST...AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER WE COULD SEE PULSE STORMS ATTEMPT TO
ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES WHICH COULD BRING SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
CRITERIA (35KT GUSTS).
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY END THU EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH S TO ALLOW MORE OF AN
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY THEN HEADS OFF COAST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS THU NIGHT
WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO 50S! NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW
ENGLAND FRI AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE 10/12Z GFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN WENT WITH
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE 10/06Z GFS. PLENTY OF
SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS AS WELL. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE
FORECAST TO REACH THE OUTER BANKS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST TPC BULLETINS REGARDING IRENE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING
EAST WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING FIRM...AND IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE SUNDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH.
THIS FRONT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
USED A BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...LEANING MORE
HEAVILY TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE WARMER.
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000
FXUS62 KILM 101854
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
254 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES LEFT BY STAGGERED BURNOFF TIMES OF THIS MORNING'S FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INLAND. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 250 MB JET SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS THE JET STREAK SLIDES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM OAK ISLAND AND SOUTHPORT THROUGH WILMINGTON LATE
TONIGHT JUST IN CASE A RENEGADE SHOWER FORMS ALONG THE BRUNSWICK
COUNTY LANDBREEZE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE CONCENSUS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE 1-2 DEGREES C. WARMER AIR IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT (PW'S DROP FROM 2.25 TO 1.75 INCHES)
SHOULD HELP PUT THE LID ON CONVECTION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE LOOK REASONABLE.
FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY EXCEPT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE
WARMER IN SPOTS. HEAT INDICIES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 100-102 RANGE
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF WHAT COULD BE
HURRICANE IRENE IN THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN...THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LARGE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO TURN NORTH ONCE
IT NEARS THE COAST.
OBVIOUSLY STILL FAR FAR TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC WITH THREAT AREAS.
HAVE ADDED SOME TO POPS AND SKY COVER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LOCAL EFFECTS.
PLEASE SEE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC ADVISORIES FOR SPECIFIC IRENE
FORECAST INFORMATION.
OTHERWISE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS REFLECT A VERY BENIGN OCEAN TODAY WITH
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT. AS TYPICAL CONVECTION CEASED
OVER THE WATERS BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.
OVER THE LONG TERM...MARINE FORECAST WILL BECOME VERY INTERESTING AS
THE FUTURE OF IRENE WILL DICTATE WHAT OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SEAS
BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS WITH MORE OF SW TO S DIRECTION. FOR SWELL
IMPACT WILL HAVE TO LET LATER SHIFTS VIEW THE WAVE WATCH III DATA
WITH AN EMBEDDED IRENE EMBEDDED AS THE DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE YET,
OVERALL FOR THE FORECAST HAVE KEPT WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH A INCREASE TO NEAR FIVE WITH THE
THOUGHTS OF SWELLS IMPACTING THE WATERS LATER IN THE FORECAST.
&&
FYI,
Chuck
FXUS62 KILM 101854
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
254 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES LEFT BY STAGGERED BURNOFF TIMES OF THIS MORNING'S FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INLAND. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 250 MB JET SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS THE JET STREAK SLIDES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM OAK ISLAND AND SOUTHPORT THROUGH WILMINGTON LATE
TONIGHT JUST IN CASE A RENEGADE SHOWER FORMS ALONG THE BRUNSWICK
COUNTY LANDBREEZE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE CONCENSUS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE 1-2 DEGREES C. WARMER AIR IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT (PW'S DROP FROM 2.25 TO 1.75 INCHES)
SHOULD HELP PUT THE LID ON CONVECTION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE LOOK REASONABLE.
FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY EXCEPT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE
WARMER IN SPOTS. HEAT INDICIES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 100-102 RANGE
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF WHAT COULD BE
HURRICANE IRENE IN THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN...THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LARGE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO TURN NORTH ONCE
IT NEARS THE COAST.
OBVIOUSLY STILL FAR FAR TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC WITH THREAT AREAS.
HAVE ADDED SOME TO POPS AND SKY COVER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LOCAL EFFECTS.
PLEASE SEE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC ADVISORIES FOR SPECIFIC IRENE
FORECAST INFORMATION.
OTHERWISE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS REFLECT A VERY BENIGN OCEAN TODAY WITH
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT. AS TYPICAL CONVECTION CEASED
OVER THE WATERS BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.
OVER THE LONG TERM...MARINE FORECAST WILL BECOME VERY INTERESTING AS
THE FUTURE OF IRENE WILL DICTATE WHAT OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SEAS
BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS WITH MORE OF SW TO S DIRECTION. FOR SWELL
IMPACT WILL HAVE TO LET LATER SHIFTS VIEW THE WAVE WATCH III DATA
WITH AN EMBEDDED IRENE EMBEDDED AS THE DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE YET,
OVERALL FOR THE FORECAST HAVE KEPT WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH A INCREASE TO NEAR FIVE WITH THE
THOUGHTS OF SWELLS IMPACTING THE WATERS LATER IN THE FORECAST.
&&
FYI,
Chuck
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ncweatherwizard
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1243
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- Location: Ft. Collins, CO
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dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
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- Location: crystal river, fla.
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gkrangers
Its unlikely to happen, but frankly a lot more probably than Irene impacting Florida.dixiebreeze wrote:A Tampa Bay area TV met just a short time ago indicated that Irene might make a run toward Long Island. I'm not sure what planet he's on.
Irene SHOULD slingshot around the ridge....meaning, if it does get close to the coast, it won't spend much time there and should shoot ENE out to sea, well southeast of LI and New England.
But I wouldn't say hes on another planet..
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They have been saying since yesterday it has a forecast track toward NC but is still far out and need to be watch as change is possible. Tonight it has been suggested that it be a good time to start thinking about plans we have for next week if Irene pays us a visit and also a good time to go over hurricane preparedness plan.
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