Amateur forecast for Irene - 11:00 PM EDT Aug 10

[wxmann_91]

Sorry that this is late.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Depression Irene Advisory 26
8:00 PM PDT Aug 10 2005 (11:00 PM EDT or 3Z Aug 11 2005)

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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.

Please remember...tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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Irene has been upgraded to a tropical storm based on Dvorak estimates of 35 kts...but the latest Quikscat still shows the absence of a LLC. The dry air and an upper level low to the southwest are still affecting Irene...but the upper level low is forecast to move out around 24 hours and the dry air moistens up to the west. Thus...with all this in mind...the intensity forecast will be similar to the previous advisory.

Many of the models now have shifted to the right enough to take Irene out to sea on the latest run...including the GFDL...the medium and deep BAMs...the LBAR...and the A98E...more in line with the UKMET. However...the shallow BAM and the GFNI continue to be the southern outliers...in fact...the latter one has Irene making landfall around Cape Fear NC at the end of the period. With this in mind...I have shifted my track to the right...but still aiming for the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Nevertheless...everybody living on the east coast should continue to watch Irene.

Forecaster Tang


Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 23.5N 59.8W 35 kt
12 hr 24.2N 61.5W 40 kt
24 hr 25.4N 63.8W 45 kt
36 hr 26.6N 66.2W 50 kt
48 hr 27.7N 69.0W 60 kt
72 hr 28.8N 73.7W 70 kt
96 hr 30.2N 77.0W 75 kt
120 hr 32.4N 78.4W 80 kt


Track:



Comments and suggestions welcomed as always.

[CronkPSU]

ahhh just change the time to midnight and then you don't have to say you're sorry

makes sense to me, would be interesting if it got that close to the georgia border

[Swimdude]

Hmmm interesting track. Following the ridge, are we? =D

[JamesFromMaine2]

Irene does have a low level circulation!

"As of 11pm this evening, Irene is back to tropical storm status, with winds of 40mph. Earlier this evening, some of the data (namely QuikSCAT) were inconclusive as to whether or not there was a low-level center. However, the storm was right on the edge of the pass and, as we've seen, the technology isn't always perfect. It does a good job, particularly with wind speeds, but with small systems and circulations, it does have trouble from time to time. Nevertheless, visible imagery was absolutely conclusive -- there was and is a low-level center with the storm, with good banding features to the south of the center of circulation. Microwave imagery (SSM/I pass this evening, available from the NRL website) confirmed these banding features, both at the low and mid levels, suggesting a system with the building blocks firmly in place. The deepest convection is building closer to where the center is located on the NW side of the overall cloud pattern, shear values are down to around 10kt, and waters are progressively warmer to the west." http://flhurricane.com/blog.php?met=Clark