Peninsula Florida May Dodge Yet Another Storm This Season

[gatorcane]

I know there are many FL posters on this board so I thought I would open up a discussion considering Irene. It looks as though Irene will miss peninsula FL to the North due to lack of ridging. Dennis missed because of too much ridging....I can't remember exactly what storms but the ridging strength turned some others away earlier this season as well. Will this be the story for the FL peninsula this season?

[wxmann_91]

Let's hope so. They need a break.

[gatorcane]

Yes, but until October is through I'm still weary.

[CronkPSU]

florida will be hit again by something this season if we end up with the 20 storms that are predicted

[boca]

Do you have a crystal ball I think we need lady luck this year. Last year was a f*cking mess.Let's just hope the ridge is strong when storms are south of Cuba and weak when in the Atlantic case in point Irene.

[gkrangers]

Well...Florida has never been strongly threatened by Irene.

Anyway....we're just getting into the active part of hurricane season...and Florida will be susceptible to both Gulf and Atlantic hits.

Perhaps one of the mets can give a more informed long range forecast regarding the ridging and expected trends for the rest of the season..

[gatorcane]

florida will be hit again by something this season if we end up with the 20 storms that are predicted

Yes, but I'm really wondering if this 20 storm prediction will hold? It's looking really weak out there right now....my guess is that it will pick up late Aug and September will be very active.

[gatorcane]

Perhaps one of the mets can give a more informed long range forecast regarding the ridging and expected trends for the rest of the season..

That would be great

[boca]

I had a disscussion with my wife asking her if she thought we would be in the cone again like last year.She said yes. On Big 105.9 the Paul and Young Ron show had the cone of death CD for 04.I don't want a cone of death for 05.

[tropical]

It looks as though Irene will miss peninsula FL to the North due to lack of ridging.

I hope you're right, but looks can be decieving. We all know how conditions can change unexpectedly. I'm planning to keep a close eye on Irene until she's well north of Palm Beach County. Of course by then I'll probably be watching Jose!

[artist]

same here tropical.

[KeyLargoDave]

I don't know the real cycles of these things, but I know that freaking high last year made it a parching dry summer in the Keys, absolutely dismal for rainfall, just constant dry east breezes -- and very scary of course for storms getting steered into Florida. I don't ever want to see a high that persistent again. But strange too that a freakishly early and strong trough is what doomed Sanibel and Punta Gorda with Charley.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Lol, the wording of your title implies the Florida peninsula's been getting alot of lucky breaks lately.

[Sanibel]

Really pulling up now.

[gatorcane]

Actually, given the lack of ridging this summer so far and other reasons I have been predicting that FL threats (if any) will be from the GOM and Caribbean. So I'll be looking there come Sept and Oct.

[Deenac813]

I am feeling very comfortable about Irene now. She is almost due east of me now. No worries.

[kmanWX]

I am feeling very comfortable about Irene now. She is almost due east of me now. No worries.

More than likely it will hit north of FL if I were you I would just continue about with your daily business and keep a 'little' eye on Irene.

[Patrick99]

Irene would have been a tough one to get to hit here, from a climatology perspective. We just don't get many storms hitting from that direction until the second half of August and all of September. Plus, it never even seriously threatened the Hebert Box.

At any rate, for it to happen, it will require stronger ridging than this. I noticed a *little* freshening of the breeze from the SE last night, but it was still pretty weak. It'll be *just* enough to keep the afternoon thunderstorms inland, I bet.

[gatorcane]

yes the SE breeze has picked up some....I noticed it started last night...

[feederband]

I'm starting to get on the its not going to hit fl at all wagon..Just don't see it...Still sticking to my sc/nc border though...