Hey...the GFS

[MWatkins]

I hate to be the one to post this...because...it is the GFS model afterall. But I don't think I am the only one who is noticing the development of a monster ridge in the 500MB layer with this model.

Check out the 72 hour pattern in the 500MB layer:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

Heck in 2 days there is a huge ridge in the western Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif

The weak 850MB reflection of Irene in the model gets pushed back to the west then SW in the GFS solution....compare the 48 hour position (little yellow blob) to the 72 hour:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_048m.gif

and

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072m.gif

Not much of a system in the model...but a monster ridge to the N.

NOGAPS appears to be a bit further north by day 4 so hard to get too worked up by the GFS solution...but this going out to sea scenario seems less likey than it did a day ago...to me.

MW

[gkrangers]

Its just confusing...

Models shifted north today....GFS develops monster ridge.

How the heck can the GFDL plow Irene through the ridge the GFS develops?

Everything is so extreme so far...

[Ivanhater]

i seriously give up on this storm......do whatever the heck you want irene

[artist]

doesn't sound good for someone...

[KeyLargoDave]

Nope, don't like that at all. I basically expected an approach toward the outer banks, but that there would be a trough weakening the ridge and Irene if at all powerful would pull up and out offshore.
Hmmmmm.

[Sanibel]

If that verifies:


1) Irene will already be in the center of that dome. She'll run right through it poleward.

2) If Irene is south enough it will track slightly WSW in reaction.

3) If Irene hasn't hit it yet she could radically recurve north in reaction.

[NorthGaWeather]

If that verifies:


1) Irene will already be in the center of that dome. She'll run right through it poleward.

2) If Irene is south enough it will track slightly WSW in reaction.

3) If Irene hasn't hit it yet she could radically recurve north in reaction.

I really don't see 1 or 3 panning out, ever...but oh well.

[Swimdude]

i seriously give up on this storm......do whatever the heck you want irene

Amen to that. No matter what happens, SOMEONE'S forecast is going to be dreadfully wrong, looking back 5 days from today. Hehe.

[Hurricaneman]

i seriously give up on this storm......do whatever the heck you want irene

Amen to that. No matter what happens, SOMEONE'S forecast is going to be dreadfully wrong, looking back 5 days from today. Hehe.

I agree, theres going to be alot of crow being handed out for Irene

[Brent]

So... how does everyone like their crow??? I'm putting in advanced orders.

[wayoutfront]

I was told by about everyone here... the GFS is far superior in recognizing and ridges than anyother model..

Now how it handles a TC is another story

[Steve]

>>I was told by about everyone here... the GFS is far superior in recognizing and ridges than anyother model..

You never heard that from me. I'd go with the European or hell, even the Canadian Ensembles (though not the operational model) before I'd go with the GFS. The GFS sometimes catches the pattern at different heights though to be fair.

Steve

[jasons2k]

I was told by about everyone here... the GFS is far superior in recognizing and ridges than anyother model..

Now how it handles a TC is another story

Many of us (including Steve above) have been saying for a week now not to trust the GFS with Irene. It's had a hard time with the ridge and heat in the east all summer, there are some very well-known biases with the GFS but for some reason people keep driving off the cliff with it.

[Agua]

Many of us (including Steve above) have been saying for a week now not to trust the GFS with Irene. It's had a hard time with the ridge and heat in the east all summer, there are some very well-known biases with the GFS but for some reason people keep driving off the cliff with it.

Because it's "on to something" when it depicts what they want to see and "on something" when it doesn't?

[shaggy]

this whole statement in the 11am advisory has me really concerned now

A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BERMUDA
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFDN
SOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND
UNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST


If that ridge builds over the carolinas and the trough isn't as strong that north curve will be much more gradual and more WNW to NW than what they are predicted so SC/NC are really going to be under the gun next week

[feederband]

So... how does everyone like their crow??? I'm putting in advanced orders.

http://www.geocities.com/mtsbr14/crow.html

[storms in NC]

this whole statement in the 11am advisory has me really concerned now

A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BERMUDA
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFDN
SOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND
UNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST


If that ridge builds over the carolinas and the trough isn't as strong that north curve will be much more gradual and more WNW to NW than what they are predicted so SC/NC are really going to be under the gun next week

And it is moving 17MPH so that may hold true

[CentralFlGal]

http://www.geocities.com/mtsbr14/crow.html

Gag!

[beachbum_al]

Okay put this in plain english for me becaue right now my brain is not function right. So what is Irlene doing? Is she moving WSW, N, W?

[shaggy]

she is moving WNW to NW at times no WSW movement AT ALL.Southern SC to northern Florida can start to slowly breath easier but the Carolinas to NE need to be watching closely