TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

New image is in. Moving north of 25N now:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene69.gif">

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it gets north of 27 north before 65 west. Then Irene will likely be a fish.

[WindRunner]

It would be, but I think that's pushing it a little.

[Windtalker1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html If you zoom in on the visable, the last 3 frames show where the highest cloud tops are, looks to be a secondary center or replacement center forming...or is this the real center.... if it is then it looks to be on a more west track...to the south of the bank of clouds...Am I nuts or am I seeing things...Just an observation....Thanks

[storms in NC]

where is everyone? Must have stayed up late or don't think she is worth watching.

[huricanwatcher]

where is everyone? Must have stayed up late or don't think she is worth watching.

brewing coffee!!!!

[krisj]

brewing coffee, but I also figured it isn't worth spending as much time worrying. It looks like Irene will miss me to the north and she isn't that strong, so I have kinda lost interest.

[Thunder44]

Dvorak estimates 45kt TS:

11/1145 UTC 25.1N 61.9W T3.0/3.0 IRENE

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 60.5 295./12.0
6 24.5 61.7 303./13.1
12 25.3 62.8 306./12.4
18 25.8 63.9 296./11.1
24 26.5 65.0 302./11.8
30 27.0 66.1 294./11.1
36 27.4 66.9 296./ 8.9
42 27.7 67.8 288./ 7.7
48 27.8 68.5 280./ 6.9
54 28.1 69.2 290./ 6.7
60 28.4 69.9 292./ 6.5
66 28.8 70.3 314./ 5.8
72 29.4 71.1 311./ 8.8
78 30.0 71.7 315./ 8.1
84 30.6 72.2 319./ 7.8
90 31.3 72.6 327./ 7.3
96 31.9 73.1 320./ 7.3
102 32.5 73.4 331./ 6.3
108 33.0 73.8 328./ 5.8
114 33.5 73.9 341./ 5.2
120 33.9 74.2 327./ 5.1
126 34.5 74.2 358./ 6.0


12z GFDL goes north not threatening east coast.

[Derek Ortt]

uh, cyc

that is extremely close to Hat and headed right toward Long Island

The 06Z GFDL indicates a VERY SERIOUS threat to the mid Atlantic and SNE

[baygirl_1]

the SAL is INCREASING ahead of Irene

Based on this 5-Day SAL Loop, it seems that the SAL waxes and wanes in the area off the SE US Coast/near the Bahamas:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/m8g10split/m8g10splitjava5.html I don't know... it may not stay as strong or it could wane, again. It never does really dissipate, but it doesn't seem to be very consistent or predictable.

[DESTRUCTION5]

uh, cyc

that is extremely close to Hat and headed right toward Long Island

The 06Z GFDL indicates a VERY SERIOUS threat to the mid Atlantic and SNE

LOL..SNE YOu sound Like our old Friend Paulk...That will never Verify from that angle IMO...It would have to come from the south..

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 111220
A. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (NINE)
B. 11/1131Z (62)
C. 24.7N/3
D. 61.4W/1
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS -11/1131Z-
G. IR/EIRVIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AND MET
AGREE.

AODT: 306 (CURVED BND)

WEAVER





T number 3.0.

[boca]

I'm looking for the Irene wobble post looks like West, north of west, WNW with a bend to the west.295 or 290, now it looks like 310.

[CronkPSU]

isn't the NHC using that open spot on the SW (around 24 n 61 w)of the storm as their center...according to the loops that is the center

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ohh I don't know the lower level winds don't pay much attention to the models. It seems like they don't even watch this board. What are they thinking?

Take peek

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8ir.html

Perhaps this is why the pros are waiting and watching. I don't see all the data lining up to one solution. Not yet anyway.

[Derek Ortt]

this is not the popular opinion; however, after looking at visible imagery, I still cannot see any type of surface circulation. I see a storm with better banding and much better outflow, but it still seems to be lacking a surface circulation

[CronkPSU]

i've been looking through all the loops and i couldn't find any, when does the quiksat come out again?

[DESTRUCTION5]

this is not the popular opinion; however, after looking at visible imagery, I still cannot see any type of surface circulation. I see a storm with better banding and much better outflow, but it still seems to be lacking a surface circulation

Tell me Ortt how the heck has this thing sustained its self without one? Its Crazy

[storms in NC]

this is not the popular opinion; however, after looking at visible imagery, I still cannot see any type of surface circulation. I see a storm with better banding and much better outflow, but it still seems to be lacking a surface circulation

Tell me Ortt how the heck has this thing sustained its self without one? Its Crazy

very good Question