Very impressive wave in the central Atlantic

[elysium]

With Irene languishing under weak ridging and now quickly losing the limelight, there is a new star on the horizon; a very impressive tropical wave at around 10N and 40W. This one looks to be a southerly tracker so it is quite reasonable that we will begin hearing more and more about it, and well we should. This wave is already evidencing rotation and should be a depression within the next 48 hrs. Unlike many of its predecessors this season, this particular wave has excellent convection and development should be rudimentary.

Convection, or the lack thereof, as well as many other factors are proving that sst's are not the only factor that goes into storm development. We are also finding out that the relationship between sst's and ridging may not be directly linked one to another. There are those who propose that cooler waters may be a factor in determing ridge placement. Well, the verdict is still out on that. Others suggest that a slowing Gulfstream may assist fixed ridging of western Atlantic by the subtropical high. We don't know. We do know that right now the ridge is flimsy at best, and this leads to storms with wispy circulatory listlessness with little to offer in the way of strengthy cyclonic rotation with the resultant coastal wind wave action. This type of ridging makes more sense only for the southerly tracker.

The southerly tracker, or 'low belly' storm develops primarily in the Caribbean south of 15N as it moves W.N.W. from the southeast to northwest Caribbean. Bringing the low belly up to hurricane status can often be very problematic until it reaches the southeastern GOM, although in the Caribbean, sst's may have a little more say in determining overall storm strength. Last year was a very good year the low belly. This year is also proving a good one for the southerly tracker. The southerly tracker we now find at 40W and 10N may also be one such low belly storm.

Do keep an eye out between 65W and 75W. Traditionally this area has not been very conducive for growth of the southerly tracker, however, of late, this area actually has seen some of the low belly's heartiest development and we shouldn't be too surprised if this trend were to continue. Since many of these type storms find destination in the GOM, the gulf coastal areas too need to be wary when the low belly arrives. Once past the Yucatan, these storms tend to do very well.

[tropical]

With Irene languishing under weak ridging and now quickly losing the limelight

Losing the limelight? She's got my full attention. I think the limelight hasn't even begun to shine on Irene.

[elysium]

Well right now Irene may look good, but the problem is the ridge. It's much weaker than being depicted, of course you would never know that by looking at the models, but really, I don't know where the models are coming up with a lot of this stuff.

I've seen the GFS and the EURO, and I agree that yes, there's a ridge, but it's absolutely the weakest ridge in history. It's not at all clear as to why. It's almost non-existant though.

Irene will have no problem plowing through to the W.N.W. She also should at least skirt the east coast. But Irene will never develop adequate outflow. That's what I think a lot of people are misunderstanding. The ridge just will not support anything stronger than a minimal hurricane. In 2 weeks from now, we will hardly even remember Irene.

This is not the case with the wave in the central atlantic. This thing looks better and better by the minute. It may even be developing a closed low already. This one needs to be watched.

Gee, I kinda wish I didn't know what was going on with the ridge to Irene's north. I'd kinda like to get a little excited about Irene myself. But personally, I try to figure out what is actually going on rather than just following the models. The models here are way off about the ridging. In fact, the ridge is so weak that Irene will just as likely skirt as landfall. In both instances, however, she will be a very weak system, albeit a minimal hurricane. Irene will never make it. The wave at 40W however has a very reasonable chance. Well worth watching.

[gkrangers]

Irene will have no problem plowing through to the W.N.W. She also should at least skirt the east coast. But Irene will never develop adequate outflow. That's what I think a lot of people are misunderstanding. The ridge just will not support anything stronger than a minimal hurricane. In 2 weeks from now, we will hardly even remember Irene.

For Irene to move WNW and skirt the east coast, this would require a strong ridge in place, wouldn't it? Also, intensity forecasts have been kept conservative, with most calling for a Category 1-2 hurricane.

If the ridge is "the weakest ridge in history", don't you think Irene would stay WAY offshore and not skirt the coast, like you say?

[ConvergenceZone]

There is absolutely nothing that will make Irene intensify beyond a minimal hurricane. Plus, there's alot of dry air and as the hurricane center mentioned, the storm will be EXTREMELY small due to the high pinching it off and the outflow being very limited. If it does hit the shore it will probably look more like a large complex of thunderstorms.

Too many factors which will keep this developing into nothing more than a minimal hurricane at the best.

[elysium]

Well GK, it is still a ridge. Whether it's the weakest ridge ever is just a way of saying that it's a weak one. The point is that in a couple weeks, we will have forgotten about Irene for the most part. Who here can remember Franklin? You get storms like these. Not every storm is going to be memorable.

It is a little funny though how weak the ridge is compared to what the models are putting out. There's no real explanation as to why the models do stuff like this. This is why you can't trust the models a whole lot.

The system in the mid-atantic looks pretty good. I posted it's longitude at 40W. It actually covers an area between 40W and 30W. This wave has a couple problems right now that should shore up over the next 48 hrs. You need to watch these though because these low belly storms can be problematic in places.

[elysium]

Well there, as we were talking the remnant ridging on the western periphery just fell through. Irene in all probability now will skirt at distance without ever making landfall.

The models are very good in assisting research, but are very poor substitutes for such. Clearly there is no ridging anywhere near the eastern seaboard. Ridging well east of the coast is very washed out and weak. East coast should see wave action, possible erosion. There's a little ridging evidenced a few hundred miles to the east. The east coast will definately have high surf.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How strong do you think Irene will get elysium?

[wxwatcher91]

Hey Elysium, what about New England? is it just another third-world country to you? Irene first of all will likely strike land and second of all could strike land that has not seen a hurricane for a while...

[Frank2]

There's nothing significant at 40W this morning, other than ITCZ convection:

click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

with the exception of one wave about to exit Africa at a very high latitude, the tropics are quiet for August 11.

Frank

P.S. Again, this is why these long-range forecasts are of no value - at this point everyone is beginning to wonder what all the talk was about. One thing to note is the media talk - it seems that many this week (including TWC), have begun to back off the "record season continues" comments, at least for the time being, which makes sense, considering the slow pace of the tropics since Hurricane Emily.

[DESTRUCTION5]

There's nothing significant at 40W this morning, other than ITCZ convection:

click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

with the exception of one wave about to exit Africa at a very high latitude, the tropics are quiet for August 11.

Frank

Agree Frank...Jose it is...

[Frank2]

I would if there was something to name - just numerous ITCZ showers and thunderstorms, per this portion of the 8 a.m. TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM
9N-12.5N BETWEEN 18.5W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. SIGNATURE
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DUE TO DRY UPPER AIR N OF 13N NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE CONTINUES TO BE AMPLIFIED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO T.S. IRENE. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH N UPPER FLOW ON THE E EDGE OF AN UPPER HIGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA S OF 18N FROM 80W-87W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N26W 7N40W 11N48W 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE THE AREA WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 35W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

P.S. Per our old end of shift joke at the HRD, on seeing a similar satellite photo - "Go home, Frank!"

[gatorcane]

Frank2, yesterday the GFS had develops this storm has Jose and moves it into S. Florida in about 1 1/2 weeks

[Frank2]

I did see it, but, for that many hours into the future, the output is bound to change completely.

Frank

[Frank2]

Here's today's full disk of the tropical Atlantic and Africa - little significant weather noted from this view.

Click on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG to view.

Frank

[sma10]

There appears to be a spin at 9N 38W now on visable loop. We'll see if it breaks from the ITCZ.

The wave SE of the Cape Verdes is a big favorite among the models.

[Patrick99]

The wave approaching the Carib. looks pretty good. Plus, it appears as though it may be leaving the influence of the very dry air.

The broad wave just off Africa looks like it might be "taking one for the team" in terms of the dry air....its northern extent seems to be cutting off the dry air, perhaps paving the way for waves to come?

[Ivanhater]

already a thread on this

[frederic79]

May not be worth noting but here goes...

2:05 PM TWD mentions "a cyclonic swirl at least in the mid level clouds near12N35W". Perhaps something that will eventually work its way to the surface as it moves westward; plenty of ITCZ convection but no mention of anything significant so far in the TWO. I suspect we'll see Jose form in this general area by the end of next week.

[Hyperstorm]

The broad wave just off Africa looks like it might be "taking one for the team" in terms of the dry air....its northern extent seems to be cutting off the dry air, perhaps paving the way for waves to come?

BINGO!