We're off to the races/ Is 2005 just cheap speed?

[Jim Hughes]

Horse racing handicappers have a term that they use called cheap speed. This means that a particular horse will have plenty of speed to make it to the lead , but he probably can not hang on to the lead , once they enter the long stretch , because the other classier horses will eventually catch up with him over the long run.

Everyone already knows that the 2004 hurricane season has the class to run in any race and it has already been entered in the hall fame next to some of the Great Ones.... like ...1933.. 1950..1995 .

But what about 2005 ? Can his speed hold up through the deep stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season ? We are about to see in the next 2-3 weeks if 2005 can withhold 2004 's furious stretch run. (Hours based a Unys. weather data I glanced over earlier this morning.)

So it's a mile and a quarter race just like the Kentucky Derby an we're approaching the half mile marker.

2005 has a commanding lead 262 hurricane hours to 2004's 81 hours...The major hurricane hours is a joke ....2005 ... 90 hours to 2004's ...12 hours...It's a walkover folks! ...(This is a one horse race because no other horse wants to run against the great horse because they know they have absolutely no chance of winning. )

But wait! here comes Charlie entering the picture.....8/11/18z.....It looks like he's got game folks....72 hours...worth of hurricane hours but only 12 majors... by 8/14/18z......

So can Irene hold Charlie at bay and keep the big lead the next few days or will she tire slightly. Can she muster up any hurricane hours at all before making landfall or before she goes out to Fish Alley?

Well it looks like if she fails to strengthen to hurricane status folks the lead in both hurricane hours and majors will dwindle to a respectable but shriveling 262 to 153 and 90 to 20 respectively by August 14/18z.

But hold on a minute here comes Danielle making a bold move down the backstretch.... It does not look like she has much in the tank though ...intensity level wise ....but she looks like a nice little hurricane with 75 hours worth of fuel.....

Where is Jose ? Has anyone seen him lately. He must be lurking out there somewhere. Rumor has it that he's riding a wave out in the Atlantic. Is this true?

What? He's gone lame.. Oh no... what now? Danielle shrivels the hurricane lead to 262 to 228 but 2005 still has a commanding lead in the Major hours.... 90 to 20!

But hold on minute here... I hear hoof steps.... it looks like you can see Frances passing horses like they are standing still...she just whizzed by Earl and she is moving like a freight train... Wow what a move....

She's still way back there after being left at the starting gate because of her usual slow start but she is flying folks. It may be another two weeks before she get's here but she is a fine looking strong mare....and I like her looks..

She brings along 237 hurricane hours by 9/5/21z and 168 Intense hours by 9/3/21z....So come on Jose, Katrina, Lee, and Maria where are you? Have you gone lame and broken down. 2005 needs ya bad !

We need to come up with some major numbers in the upcoming weeks or we'll gets passed by....... We'll also have to suck it up if even more if we are going to hold off Ivan at 259 Intense hours... by 9/17/6z.

Stayed tuned for updated race calls.....



Jim

[du1st]

05 will be like 95.

[Javlin]

Love it Jim keep up the post of stats interesting analogy.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Love it Jim..Your talking the biggest horse racing fan on this board!

[Frank2]

Jim,

I don't thing the season will equal 2004 - there seem to be just too many inhibiting factors (SAL, MJO, weak subtropical Atlantic ridge, shear (right now the Caribbean has alot of it), and a possible early appearance of the northern branch of the jet stream, which would move the westerlies southward earlier than expected, deepen the east coast troughs, and increase shear.

Perhaps those who made the high number predictions will wait another few weeks (after Labor Day) before backing off some of these earlier statements, which seemed to be more a pyschological reaction to last season, more than anything.

Frank

P.S. Of course, I could be totally wrong, but, the season just has a different feel than last year.

[WindRunner]

Great commentary. I haven't been following the hours so much this year, so it's interesting to hear them, especially in that format!

[Jim Hughes]

Love it Jim..Your talking the biggest horse racing fan on this board!

Are you sure? I have TVG on as I write this. Just watching though ...no betting... I like watching Saratgoa.....two year olds. Also Delmar later today... Oh the Dish ...Definitely glad they did not have it twenty years ago. I'd be homeless today.


Jim

[DESTRUCTION5]

Love it Jim..Your talking the biggest horse racing fan on this board!

Are you sure? I have TVG on as I write this. Just watching though ...no betting... I like watching Saratgoa.....two year olds. Also Delmar later today... Oh the Dish ...Definitely glad they did not have it twenty years ago. I'd be homeless today.


Jim

LOL..No doubt...I have the same at home...I have Express bet and Gamble every night via phone on Delmar/SA/HW..Every night! But your right Saratoga is where the Monsters are born...BTW...Look for Master of Disaster to come back strong he Bleed in his last race...He looks like a Killer!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This year is looking like its going to loss the race to 1995. If it doe's not form a few storms before the end of the month.

[Betrock]

I really enjoyed the analogy and the info on the hurricane hours.

HOWEVER - if you guys open a backroom bookmaking operation here on Hurricanes, I'm calling the cops!

Best,
Betrock

[Jim Hughes]

[quote="DESTRUCTION5 LOL..No doubt...I have the same at home...I have Express bet and Gamble every night via phone on Delmar/SA/HW..Every night! But your right Saratoga is where the Monsters are born...BTW...Look for Master of Disaster to come back strong he Bleed in his last race...He looks like a Killer!!![/quote]

I see we use the same banking service. I always get the feeling someone is embezzling my account funds. I haven't used it since Belmont day. My wife and I have a good agreement. I get so many play dates a year for horse racing . Triple Crown Races ... Breeders Cup ... a couple of others... and if I win I get to stay out and play a little longer.

We only live about 15 minutes from Charlestown...Racino...Lived here for 19 months and I have yet to play the slots. Do not plan to either...Losers game.

They get them in by the bus loads around here. It's huge and it's supposed to have the most slot machines under one roof outside of Vegas. I think they have something like 5,000 machines.


Jim

[DESTRUCTION5]

[quote="DESTRUCTION5 LOL..No doubt...I have the same at home...I have Express bet and Gamble every night via phone on Delmar/SA/HW..Every night! But your right Saratoga is where the Monsters are born...BTW...Look for Master of Disaster to come back strong he Bleed in his last race...He looks like a Killer!!!

I see we use the same banking service. I always get the feeling someone is embezzling my account funds. I haven't used it since Belmont day. My wife and I have a good agreement. I get so many play dates a year for horse racing . Triple Crown Races ... Breeders Cup ... a couple of others... and if I win I get to stay out and play a little longer.

We only live about 15 minutes from Charlestown...Racino...Lived here for 19 months and I have yet to play the slots. Do not plan to either...Losers game.

They get them in by the bus loads around here. It's huge and it's supposed to have the most slot machines under one roof outside of Vegas. I think they have something like 5,000 machines.

i no like any other way to lose my $..Horse racing is enough...We will have to share breeders cup picks come Oct...Best time of the year!!!
Jim[/quote]

[Jim Hughes]

I really enjoyed the analogy and the info on the hurricane hours.

HOWEVER - if you guys open a backroom bookmaking operation here on Hurricanes, I'm calling the cops!

Best,
Betrock

I seriously doubt they could give you a better line than us. Plus who do you think we give all the money to after we collect it from the losers ?