TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is not going to make Classic Cane status at this rae at all...Weak all the way out..

[storms in NC]

I don't think SC and NC are out of the woods. We will see what happen Friday

[clfenwi]

coolwx's ship/buoy plot at 1745Z seems to show the observations that ALhurricane is talking about...

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/data/storms/IRENE/storm.php

[deltadog03]

what do you know...Models show the WEST bend towards the end...maybe even a WSW bend...model reading 101..don't live and die by them specially run to run...

[clfenwi]

18Z guidance graphic showing the 18Z NHC guidance models and the interpolations of the 12Z models... very cluttered graphic...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

...worth noting that the GFNI, which was on the left side of the envelope last night and indicating a landfall is now keeping Irene off-shore.

Also, ECMWF continues to be on the left-side of the envelope more or less, but unlike the 00Z run, you don't need to look at the different levels to try to cipher out its forecast.... it is selling a 'brush the Outer Banks' scenario

http://tinyurl.com/7mhfl

[Sanibel]

i really wish we had something concrete though

A ship report is as concrete as it gets.

[storms in NC]

Okay by every thing I have read we don't have to keep a eye on her cause she is not going to make it to land. So it is safe now.

[superfly]

Irene is looking much improved right now with a possible CDO forming.

[gkrangers]

Okay by every thing I have read we don't have to keep a eye on her cause she is not going to make it to land. So it is safe now.

Irene is still a huge threat to the east coast.

[dwg71]

what do you know...Models show the WEST bend towards the end...maybe even a WSW bend...model reading 101..don't live and die by them specially run to run...

2 models(LBAR and BAMM) show a left turn, not a bend. I dont see this storm getting to 32N and hanging a left, if its going to go west it will be sooner than that and much more south.

This storm unlike others is much more difficult to forecast 72+ hours out. The NHC 3 day cone is as far as we should look. Models have been trending N and E in the past 24 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice looking storm.

[Sanibel]

Ding ding ding ding ding!

[gatorcane]

I think it's starting to bomb out

[clfenwi]

And when you're talking about storms that threatened Outer Banks/SE Virginia, but relented, you've got to talk about Felix of '95...

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

The forecasters saw the stall in movement coming, but they were a bit late in their prediction, because at one point the call was for the stall to occur directly over Norfolk, VA... as seen in the track graphic, the stall happened about a day earlier than anticipated.

[RU4REAL]

you wish..( wink wink)

[elysium]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

[storms in NC]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

to the right or left?

[Ivanhater]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

what are you talking about???....no offense but a day ago you were saying how much she was strengthening and going under the ridge...i really think your looking at another storm

[RU4REAL]

[shaggy]

5pm plots have the storm in the same general area as the last 4 advisories.This is starting to annoy me because its like the NHC is holding it there until they have a better handle on the track.They need to really consider a 5 day forecast track if they are only going to have the 5 day plot in the same place for 2 days.