Statement as of 21:00Z on August 11, 2005
tropical storm center located near 25.7n 63.9w at 11/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 13 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1000 mb
Max sustained winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
34 kt....... 50ne 50se 0sw 40nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 200se 50sw 90nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 25.7n 63.9w at 11/2100z
at 11/1800z center was located near 25.4n 63.3w
forecast valid 12/0600z 26.7n 65.6w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 20sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 12/1800z 27.8n 67.6w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 13/0600z 28.5n 69.1w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 15ne 15se 0sw 15nw.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 15sw 30nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 13/1800z 29.1n 70.5w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
50 kt... 35ne 35se 25sw 35nw.
34 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 70nw.
Forecast valid 14/1800z 31.0n 72.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 15/1800z 33.0n 73.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
Outlook valid 16/1800z 35.0n 74.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.7n 63.9w
next advisory at 12/0300z
forecaster Stewart
$$
Extratropical Irene Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2005
the overall convective pattern of Irene has changed little today.
The system is elongated west-northwest to east-southeast and the
best estimate of the surface center location...based on curved
low-level cloud lines and continuity...is near the western edge of
the cloud shield and not farther east into the deep convection.
Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt...45 kt...and 55 kt from
TAFB...SAB...and AFWA...respectively. The initial intensity is
being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory...but it could be a
little higher.
The initial motion estimate is 300/13...based mainly on continuity
and and partly on the models indicating a gradual decrease in
forward speed. There has not been much change in the model forecast
tracks or the models' handling of the subtropical ridge to the
north of Irene and the alleged weakening of the western portion of
the ridge after 72 hours. However...it should be noted that none of
the models create a weakness in the ridge due to a shortwave trough
moving into the mean ridge position. The NOGAPS and UKMET models
erode the ridge as a result of amplifying Irene to a size nearly
the same as that of the synoptic scale high pressure center near
Bermuda...which results in Irene turning sharply northward along
70w longitude by 72 hours. That scenario seems less likely...given
the current size and strength of the Bermuda ridge as noted in
water vapor imagery and upper-air data. The GFS has continued its
trend of dissipating Irene within 48 hours and maintaining an east-
west oriented mid-level ridge from Bermuda westward to the
Carolinas. The official forecast is close to the GFDL and GFDN
solutions...which move Irene farther west and closer to the Outer
Banks of North Carolina...and decrease the forward speed to only 5
kt after 72 hours. The official forecast is nearly identical to the
previous track and remains near the left edge of the model guidance
envelope. It should be pointed out that weak steering currents less
than 10 kt oftentimes results in erratic motion...so a possible
U.S. Landfall by day 5 can not be ruled out at this time.
An upper-low to the south of Irene has been advecting dry mid-level
into the southern portion of the cyclone today...which has caused
the convection to erode and weaken at times. However...water vapor
imagery indicates the low has been weakening and that the mid- to
upper-level flow is gradually becoming southeasterly. Therefore...
deep convection has a better chance of developing later tonight and
Irene could become a hurricane by this time tomorrow. Later in the
forecast period...dry mid-level air remains the primary inhibiting
factor. The SHIPS model has now decreased the peak intensity to
less than 70 kt due to strong low-level anticyclonic flow
surrounding the cyclone as it moves into a stronger ridge. The
official intensity forecast remains above the SHIPS model since the
GFS-based SHIPS model does not hold onto Irene after 48 hours...
which results in an artificially stronger ridge in the GFS model.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/2100z 25.7n 63.9w 45 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 26.7n 65.6w 55 kt
24hr VT 12/1800z 27.8n 67.6w 60 kt
36hr VT 13/0600z 28.5n 69.1w 65 kt
48hr VT 13/1800z 29.1n 70.5w 70 kt
72hr VT 14/1800z 31.0n 72.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 15/1800z 33.0n 73.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 16/1800z 35.0n 74.5w 75 kt
the overall convective pattern of Irene has changed little today.
The system is elongated west-northwest to east-southeast and the
best estimate of the surface center location...based on curved
low-level cloud lines and continuity...is near the western edge of
the cloud shield and not farther east into the deep convection.
Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt...45 kt...and 55 kt from
TAFB...SAB...and AFWA...respectively. The initial intensity is
being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory...but it could be a
little higher.
The initial motion estimate is 300/13...based mainly on continuity
and and partly on the models indicating a gradual decrease in
forward speed. There has not been much change in the model forecast
tracks or the models' handling of the subtropical ridge to the
north of Irene and the alleged weakening of the western portion of
the ridge after 72 hours. However...it should be noted that none of
the models create a weakness in the ridge due to a shortwave trough
moving into the mean ridge position. The NOGAPS and UKMET models
erode the ridge as a result of amplifying Irene to a size nearly
the same as that of the synoptic scale high pressure center near
Bermuda...which results in Irene turning sharply northward along
70w longitude by 72 hours. That scenario seems less likely...given
the current size and strength of the Bermuda ridge as noted in
water vapor imagery and upper-air data. The GFS has continued its
trend of dissipating Irene within 48 hours and maintaining an east-
west oriented mid-level ridge from Bermuda westward to the
Carolinas. The official forecast is close to the GFDL and GFDN
solutions...which move Irene farther west and closer to the Outer
Banks of North Carolina...and decrease the forward speed to only 5
kt after 72 hours. The official forecast is nearly identical to the
previous track and remains near the left edge of the model guidance
envelope. It should be pointed out that weak steering currents less
than 10 kt oftentimes results in erratic motion...so a possible
U.S. Landfall by day 5 can not be ruled out at this time.
An upper-low to the south of Irene has been advecting dry mid-level
into the southern portion of the cyclone today...which has caused
the convection to erode and weaken at times. However...water vapor
imagery indicates the low has been weakening and that the mid- to
upper-level flow is gradually becoming southeasterly. Therefore...
deep convection has a better chance of developing later tonight and
Irene could become a hurricane by this time tomorrow. Later in the
forecast period...dry mid-level air remains the primary inhibiting
factor. The SHIPS model has now decreased the peak intensity to
less than 70 kt due to strong low-level anticyclonic flow
surrounding the cyclone as it moves into a stronger ridge. The
official intensity forecast remains above the SHIPS model since the
GFS-based SHIPS model does not hold onto Irene after 48 hours...
which results in an artificially stronger ridge in the GFS model.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/2100z 25.7n 63.9w 45 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 26.7n 65.6w 55 kt
24hr VT 12/1800z 27.8n 67.6w 60 kt
36hr VT 13/0600z 28.5n 69.1w 65 kt
48hr VT 13/1800z 29.1n 70.5w 70 kt
72hr VT 14/1800z 31.0n 72.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 15/1800z 33.0n 73.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 16/1800z 35.0n 74.5w 75 kt
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bmoreorless
- Tropical Low
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I agree his discussions are incredibly interesting. He's not mocking the UKMET today like he was this time yesterday, though, that's for sure.
NHC says it's staying on the left edge of the guidance envelope -- and even now says that decision is based as much on continuity as it is on anything else. I wonder if that decision is influenced at all by wanting to at least pose the threat of landfall, and then people can be happy when/if Irene is a fish, as opposed to telling people that it's likely a fish and then deal with their anger if/when it makes landfall.
NHC says it's staying on the left edge of the guidance envelope -- and even now says that decision is based as much on continuity as it is on anything else. I wonder if that decision is influenced at all by wanting to at least pose the threat of landfall, and then people can be happy when/if Irene is a fish, as opposed to telling people that it's likely a fish and then deal with their anger if/when it makes landfall.
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deltadog03
- Professional-Met
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
120230
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0300Z FRI AUG 12 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.2W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.3N 67.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.0N 69.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 29.8N 70.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 33.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 64.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
FORECASTER PASCH
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0300Z FRI AUG 12 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.2W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.3N 67.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.0N 69.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 29.8N 70.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 33.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 64.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE IMAGES. IRENE
CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER ITS EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION ENCOMPASSES A RATHER SMALL AREA. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT IS WEAK BUT
APPEARS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION.
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH SHOW IRENE STRENGTHENING INTO
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LOCATING THE STORM CENTER REMAINS A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
INFRARED IMAGERY. THUS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...300/13...IS
AN EDUCATED GUESS. NWP MODELS SHOW A 500 MB HIGH BUILDING NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IRENE APPROACHES THE RIDGE...
STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN...SO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. BEYOND 36
HOURS...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFDL
AND GFDN ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND ARE ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL SUITE. THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS
SOLUTIONS SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN...AS DOES THE GFS. HOWEVER THE
LATTER MODEL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
SPEED BY 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.
FIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.4N 64.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 27.3N 66.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.3N 67.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 29.0N 69.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 29.8N 70.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 31.5N 72.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 73.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 74.0W 75 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE IMAGES. IRENE
CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER ITS EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION ENCOMPASSES A RATHER SMALL AREA. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT IS WEAK BUT
APPEARS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION.
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH SHOW IRENE STRENGTHENING INTO
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LOCATING THE STORM CENTER REMAINS A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
INFRARED IMAGERY. THUS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...300/13...IS
AN EDUCATED GUESS. NWP MODELS SHOW A 500 MB HIGH BUILDING NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IRENE APPROACHES THE RIDGE...
STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN...SO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. BEYOND 36
HOURS...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFDL
AND GFDN ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND ARE ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL SUITE. THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS
SOLUTIONS SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN...AS DOES THE GFS. HOWEVER THE
LATTER MODEL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
SPEED BY 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.
FIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.4N 64.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 27.3N 66.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.3N 67.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 29.0N 69.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 29.8N 70.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 31.5N 72.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 73.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 74.0W 75 KT
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cycloneye
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deltadog03
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gkrangers
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curtinnc
- Tropical Depression
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Guess we got spoiled with Stewart...
Just have to get used to not hearing as much, when they don't have as much to say I guess.
Stewart will let it rip tomorrow...
Stewart will let it rip tomorrow...
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James
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108
WTNT34 KNHC 120835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005
...IRENE STRENGTHENING...CENTER RE-LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...
DATA FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
IRENE IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 325
MILES... 525 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1275
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...27.6 N... 65.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT34 KNHC 120835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005
...IRENE STRENGTHENING...CENTER RE-LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...
DATA FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
IRENE IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 325
MILES... 525 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1275
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...27.6 N... 65.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Coredesat
000
WTNT44 KNHC 120852
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE WINDSAT...DMSP...NOAA...AND TRMM
SATELLITES BETWEEN 2201Z AND 0335Z INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
IRENE IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION. THE WINDSAT AND TRMM DATA SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/13. IRENE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE WITH A CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
26N74W. A DEEP-LAYER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXISTS NEAR 32N70W DUE
TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. IRENE IS CURRENTLY
HEADING FOR THE WEAKNESS...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO
FILL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL IRENE
RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS BEFORE IT FILLS. ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL RECURVE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED
STATES EXCEPT FOR THE OUTLIER GFDN...WHICH CALLS FOR A LANDFALL IN
NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...CALLING FOR IRENE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER
48-72 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE FORECAST
TRACK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT LEFT TURN DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR IN
ANTICIPATION OF RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK....AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE
OF GUIDANCE.
IRENE HAS DEVELOPED GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS NOW IN A LIGHT
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
A HURRICANE IN 24-48 HR. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COULD STILL BE A
PROBLEM FOR DEVELOPMENT...AS COULD BE AN EDDY OF COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH 75 KT IN 48 HR...THEN LEVEL OFF IN
INTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER THE EDDY. IRENE SHOULD MOVED OVER
WARMER SSTS AGAIN AFTER 72 HR...BUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
PRESENT AT THAT TIME IS UNCERTAIN. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER THAT TIME.
FIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 27.6N 65.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 28.5N 66.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 29.4N 68.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 30.1N 69.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 70.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 33.0N 71.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W 75 KT
$$
WTNT44 KNHC 120852
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE WINDSAT...DMSP...NOAA...AND TRMM
SATELLITES BETWEEN 2201Z AND 0335Z INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
IRENE IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION. THE WINDSAT AND TRMM DATA SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/13. IRENE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE WITH A CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
26N74W. A DEEP-LAYER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXISTS NEAR 32N70W DUE
TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. IRENE IS CURRENTLY
HEADING FOR THE WEAKNESS...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO
FILL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL IRENE
RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS BEFORE IT FILLS. ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL RECURVE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED
STATES EXCEPT FOR THE OUTLIER GFDN...WHICH CALLS FOR A LANDFALL IN
NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...CALLING FOR IRENE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER
48-72 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE FORECAST
TRACK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT LEFT TURN DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR IN
ANTICIPATION OF RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK....AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE
OF GUIDANCE.
IRENE HAS DEVELOPED GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS NOW IN A LIGHT
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
A HURRICANE IN 24-48 HR. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COULD STILL BE A
PROBLEM FOR DEVELOPMENT...AS COULD BE AN EDDY OF COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH 75 KT IN 48 HR...THEN LEVEL OFF IN
INTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER THE EDDY. IRENE SHOULD MOVED OVER
WARMER SSTS AGAIN AFTER 72 HR...BUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
PRESENT AT THAT TIME IS UNCERTAIN. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER THAT TIME.
FIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 27.6N 65.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 28.5N 66.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 29.4N 68.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 30.1N 69.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 70.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 33.0N 71.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W 75 KT
$$
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005
...IRENE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER ON SATELLITE...AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO CHECK LATER TODAY...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 700
MILES...1125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE WILL CHECK IRENE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.3 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005
...IRENE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER ON SATELLITE...AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO CHECK LATER TODAY...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 700
MILES...1125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE WILL CHECK IRENE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.3 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
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