and winds at 45. She's looking good:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Irene pressure drops to 1000 mb......
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dixiebreeze
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of worse note is this portion of the 5pm advisory!!!Going to be concerned now for a NC landfalling cane because the ridge may never weaken.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST
TRACKS OR THE MODELS' HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE AND THE ALLEGED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF
THE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
ERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY
THE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG
70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN
THE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA.
no trough means no real reasoning behind a ridge that would weaken so now a WNW track seems more likely for the storm until the forward speed slows down.This is one screwy storm and they are having ahard time trying to nail it down.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST
TRACKS OR THE MODELS' HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE AND THE ALLEGED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF
THE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
ERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY
THE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG
70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN
THE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA.
no trough means no real reasoning behind a ridge that would weaken so now a WNW track seems more likely for the storm until the forward speed slows down.This is one screwy storm and they are having ahard time trying to nail it down.
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jax
Re: Irene pressure drops to 1000 mb......
dixiebreeze wrote:and winds at 45. She's looking good:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
kinda been there since 11:00 am this morning...
15 GMT 08/11/05 25.1N 62.6W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/11/05 25.7N 63.9W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
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dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
Brent wrote:Swimdude wrote:dixiebreeze wrote:Just info for those who don't want to wade through 97 pages.
Amen to that one. Why aren't we locking that thread after 15 posts, like planned?
I think the rule was scrapped... 15 pages didn't bother me, but 97 pages is a bit insane and too long.
It's hard to imagine anyone reading through 97 pages.
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huricanwatcher
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