TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- Hyperstorm
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ncdowneast wrote:hyperstorm why should we trust the globals when the NHC says they are weakening the ridge for no good reason other than they have irene becoming equally as strong?That makes NO sense and makes me doubt some of the globals.I do not just lookat the models but what the PRO's interpret them to say and mean
and when the NHC says
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF
THE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
ERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY
THE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG
70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN
THE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA.
to me that statement means that the globals are suspect right now thats all
The models are for GUIDANCE purposes ONLY. Never trust them blindly. Sure they could be suspect, but that is when the forecaster's experience and maybe even gut feeling kicks in. Global models are still one of the MOST important tools we have for storms located this far north...
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wxman57 wrote:This is a much better models link on Colorado State's web site. Note that all of the dynamic models take Irene out to sea. Of course, that's not a guarantee it'll miss the Outer Banks.
I disagree on all the models taking it out to sea. It might look that way with a quick glance because about half the models are obscured in the middle of that mess because they all slow Irene down and curve it slowly back to the west.
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- wxman57
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johngaltfla wrote:I agree wxman57. That model page is much better than WUx's map. CSU is really getting it done with this graphic.
Since you're a pro, I'll ask:
Should we rely on these models now or just wait until we get some recon data fed into the computers then pay more attention? I don't see how we can do much more than speculate now, but the pro's input is what I listen for (and to).
The models are useful for indicating trends. Note that all the dynamic models show that sharp northerly turn then out to sea. The high center is projected to be along about 35W near Bermuda this Sunday/Monday. Question is, just how far west will it ridge?
My track would take it northward very near 75W then NNE-NE and out to sea. I don't really disagree with the NHC's track. But it would take just a tiny deviation, a little bit more WNW-NW motion before the northerly turn to put NC under the gun for a possible Cat 2-3 hurricane. If I was living on the Outer Banks of NC I'd be buying plywood.
I just can't understand why the NHC is not flying into Irene and they WERE flying into Harvey after it passed Bermuda and was heading out to sea. Something strange is going on at the NHC this week. First they passed off Irene to the TPC, then they took it back.Some satellite imagery which was posted here indicates that Irene may have an eye forming. However, Irene doesn't look that good on normal IR or visible imagery. Dvorak estimates are still 3.0, probably due to a lack of significant banding features. I think 50 mph may be about right, but we'll see tomorrow.
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- wxman57
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superfly wrote:wxman57 wrote:This is a much better models link on Colorado State's web site. Note that all of the dynamic models take Irene out to sea. Of course, that's not a guarantee it'll miss the Outer Banks.
I disagree on all the models taking it out to sea. It might look that way with a quick glance because about half the models are obscured in the middle of that mess because they all slow Irene down and curve it slowly back to the west.
I agree with you there. These same models were forecasting Irene to recurve east of Bermuda about 5 days ago.
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Anwering my own question that I think I asked a day or so ago never got an answer so am posting it here in case anyone was wondering the same ...
... my question was 'I've read the GFDN is the Navy's version of the GFDL. What is the difference between the two?'
The difference is that the GFDN gets its initial and boundary conditions from NOGAPS, while (as most people know, GFDL gets those from GFS). Another difference is that it only gets run twice a day.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/MODEL ... /gfdn.html
... my question was 'I've read the GFDN is the Navy's version of the GFDL. What is the difference between the two?'
The difference is that the GFDN gets its initial and boundary conditions from NOGAPS, while (as most people know, GFDL gets those from GFS). Another difference is that it only gets run twice a day.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/MODEL ... /gfdn.html
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
It looks like Irene is moving NW instead of WNW now.
It looks like Irene is moving NW instead of WNW now.
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clfenwi wrote:Anwering my own question that I think I asked a day or so ago never got an answer so am posting it here in case anyone was wondering the same ...
... my question was 'I've read the GFDN is the Navy's version of the GFDL. What is the difference between the two?'
The difference is that the GFDN gets its initial and boundary conditions from NOGAPS, while (as most people know, GFDL gets those from GFS). Another difference is that it only gets run twice a day.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/MODEL ... /gfdn.html
Good information. Was not aware of the GFDN/NOGAPS connection. Thanks!
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- deltadog03
- Professional-Met
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ivanhater wrote:im telling you folks....watch for the models start shifting toward the carolinas.....listening to dt is very interesting...he says it WILL NOT recurve out to sea
I've defended DT a lot, but realize he CAN and IS wrong sometimes. That said, I continue to believe this will be a landfalling storm/
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- storms in NC
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