TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
jrod
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 1:22 pm
Location: jacksonville, fl

#2081 Postby jrod » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:35 pm

Looks like she's gonna be a great storm for surfers in Florida! The groundswell starting hitting the beaches this after noon; Already the best swell of the tropical season.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#2082 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:36 pm

ncdowneast wrote:hyperstorm why should we trust the globals when the NHC says they are weakening the ridge for no good reason other than they have irene becoming equally as strong?That makes NO sense and makes me doubt some of the globals.I do not just lookat the models but what the PRO's interpret them to say and mean


and when the NHC says

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF
THE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
ERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY
THE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG
70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN
THE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA.

to me that statement means that the globals are suspect right now thats all


The models are for GUIDANCE purposes ONLY. Never trust them blindly. Sure they could be suspect, but that is when the forecaster's experience and maybe even gut feeling kicks in. Global models are still one of the MOST important tools we have for storms located this far north...
0 likes   

superfly

#2083 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:This is a much better models link on Colorado State's web site. Note that all of the dynamic models take Irene out to sea. Of course, that's not a guarantee it'll miss the Outer Banks.


I disagree on all the models taking it out to sea. It might look that way with a quick glance because about half the models are obscured in the middle of that mess because they all slow Irene down and curve it slowly back to the west.
0 likes   

skufful
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 244
Joined: Sat Nov 01, 2003 6:37 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

#2084 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:38 pm

Lucky 8-Ball says....................


Try again later!
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#2085 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:38 pm

ill say it again...dt is on nhcradio saying "i dont care how many models take it out to sea....its not going to bust that ridge..thats just a basic meteorology rule"
0 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#2086 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:38 pm

the 00z large model map isn't out yet, that is still the 18z one
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23006
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#2087 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:41 pm

johngaltfla wrote:I agree wxman57. That model page is much better than WUx's map. CSU is really getting it done with this graphic.

Since you're a pro, I'll ask:

Should we rely on these models now or just wait until we get some recon data fed into the computers then pay more attention? I don't see how we can do much more than speculate now, but the pro's input is what I listen for (and to).


The models are useful for indicating trends. Note that all the dynamic models show that sharp northerly turn then out to sea. The high center is projected to be along about 35W near Bermuda this Sunday/Monday. Question is, just how far west will it ridge?

My track would take it northward very near 75W then NNE-NE and out to sea. I don't really disagree with the NHC's track. But it would take just a tiny deviation, a little bit more WNW-NW motion before the northerly turn to put NC under the gun for a possible Cat 2-3 hurricane. If I was living on the Outer Banks of NC I'd be buying plywood.

I just can't understand why the NHC is not flying into Irene and they WERE flying into Harvey after it passed Bermuda and was heading out to sea. Something strange is going on at the NHC this week. First they passed off Irene to the TPC, then they took it back.Some satellite imagery which was posted here indicates that Irene may have an eye forming. However, Irene doesn't look that good on normal IR or visible imagery. Dvorak estimates are still 3.0, probably due to a lack of significant banding features. I think 50 mph may be about right, but we'll see tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23006
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#2088 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:43 pm

superfly wrote:
wxman57 wrote:This is a much better models link on Colorado State's web site. Note that all of the dynamic models take Irene out to sea. Of course, that's not a guarantee it'll miss the Outer Banks.


I disagree on all the models taking it out to sea. It might look that way with a quick glance because about half the models are obscured in the middle of that mess because they all slow Irene down and curve it slowly back to the west.


I agree with you there. These same models were forecasting Irene to recurve east of Bermuda about 5 days ago.
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#2089 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:44 pm

Anwering my own question that I think I asked a day or so ago never got an answer so am posting it here in case anyone was wondering the same ...

... my question was 'I've read the GFDN is the Navy's version of the GFDL. What is the difference between the two?'

The difference is that the GFDN gets its initial and boundary conditions from NOGAPS, while (as most people know, GFDL gets those from GFS). Another difference is that it only gets run twice a day.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/MODEL ... /gfdn.html
0 likes   

shaggy
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 655
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:14 pm
Location: greenville, n.c.

#2090 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:46 pm

my feeling is for a faster moving storm with less recurve just from what the 5pm discussion SUGGESTED.This is likely to change again since the 11pm is due and may have changed things completely but we will see.


I sure hope that shark oil theory is right and we don't have to worry here :D
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#2091 Postby boca » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:47 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It looks like Irene is moving NW instead of WNW now.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#2092 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:48 pm

clfenwi wrote:Anwering my own question that I think I asked a day or so ago never got an answer so am posting it here in case anyone was wondering the same ...

... my question was 'I've read the GFDN is the Navy's version of the GFDL. What is the difference between the two?'

The difference is that the GFDN gets its initial and boundary conditions from NOGAPS, while (as most people know, GFDL gets those from GFS). Another difference is that it only gets run twice a day.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/MODEL ... /gfdn.html

Good information. Was not aware of the GFDN/NOGAPS connection. Thanks!
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#2093 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:49 pm

Maybe they should send a jet to test the ridge...


NOAA G-IV jet set to depart McDill 2pmEST tomorrow...
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#2094 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:50 pm

Sanibel wrote:Maybe they should send a jet to test the ridge...
I think a lot of people are wondering why recon hasn't gone out yet.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2095 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:51 pm

looks WNW to me...the center is SW of that convection
0 likes   

skufful
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 244
Joined: Sat Nov 01, 2003 6:37 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

#2096 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:52 pm

TWC just said Hurricane Hunters and NOAA are both going tomorrow.

NOAA to check steering parameters.
Last edited by skufful on Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#2097 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:53 pm

skufful wrote:TWC just said Hurricane Hunters and NOAA are both going tomorrow.


24 hours too late IMHO, would be nice if we could narrow the cone a little
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#2098 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:53 pm

im telling you folks....watch for the models start shifting toward the carolinas.....listening to dt is very interesting...he says it WILL NOT recurve out to sea
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#2099 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:56 pm

ivanhater wrote:im telling you folks....watch for the models start shifting toward the carolinas.....listening to dt is very interesting...he says it WILL NOT recurve out to sea

I've defended DT a lot, but realize he CAN and IS wrong sometimes. That said, I continue to believe this will be a landfalling storm/
0 likes   

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

#2100 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:56 pm

about time I am glad
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Ulf and 36 guests