TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[storms in NC]

im telling you folks....watch for the models start shifting toward the carolinas.....listening to dt is very interesting...he says it WILL NOT recurve out to sea

I've defended DT a lot, but realize he CAN and IS wrong sometimes. That said, I continue to believe this will be a landfalling storm/

Floydbuster siad the same thing

[jkt21787]

im telling you folks....watch for the models start shifting toward the carolinas.....listening to dt is very interesting...he says it WILL NOT recurve out to sea

I've defended DT a lot, but realize he CAN and IS wrong sometimes. That said, I continue to believe this will be a landfalling storm/

Floydbuster siad the same thing

about DT or about it being a landfalling storm?

[gkrangers]

im telling you folks....watch for the models start shifting toward the carolinas.....listening to dt is very interesting...he says it WILL NOT recurve out to sea

I've defended DT a lot, but realize he CAN and IS wrong sometimes. That said, I continue to believe this will be a landfalling storm/

Floydbuster siad the same thing

about DT or about it being a landfalling storm?

I was listening...tuned him out I guess..but probably about a landfalling storm.

DT is wrong sometimes..like all mets are...but you definitely want to take him seriously.

[storms in NC]

im telling you folks....watch for the models start shifting toward the carolinas.....listening to dt is very interesting...he says it WILL NOT recurve out to sea

I've defended DT a lot, but realize he CAN and IS wrong sometimes. That said, I continue to believe this will be a landfalling storm/

Floydbuster siad the same thing

about DT or about it being a landfalling storm?

that it WIL be a land fall NO way it could go thought the ridge

[CronkPSU]

00z models

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

[Air Force Met]

looks WNW to me...the center is SW of that convection

If the center is SW of that convection...then we have a very ill-organized system because the lower-mid-level center shows up clearly on the 37 GHZ as right in the middle of the convection with the low level center elongated to the west and WSW. So...if that's the case (which I don't think it is)...then the MLC and associated convection are going to leave a naked swirl in the next 6 hours or so...look at how the convection is moving...clearly NW...almost NNW but not quite.

[wxman57]

You might take a look at this graphic I just made in GARP. It's the 18Z Global High-Res GFS valid for 18Z Sunday. I plotted the 700mb-400mb mean flow streamlines in purple (thats the flow between about 10,000 ft and 20 to 25000 ft). Basically, it's a good estimate of steering level winds for a moderately strong system. I also indicated the NHC forecast position of Irene near 31N/72.5W. I think you can clearly see why many of the dynamic models are turning Irene out to sea. The 12Z UKMET turns Irene northward well off the east U.S. coast. Are they right? We shall see.......

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene80.gif">

[wxman57]

00z models

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I believe that the only 00z models on that plot are the BAMs. It's way too early for the 00Z dynamic models to come out, as they require quite a bit of computing time vs. the crude calculations of the BAMs.

[jkt21787]

Can't get enough of GARP Definitely reveals whats likely leading to the various out to sea scenarios.

As you said, we shall see.

[storms in NC]

It is all yours everyone going to bed. See ya yet another day. Good Nite

[clfenwi]

Speaking of GFNL... it it a flip-flopping fool right now... last night was selling Carolina landfall, this morning sold a turn to sea, now it is back to landfall... see the 'early' 00Z guidance and compare to that of 6 hours earlier (it is the one labled GFNI)...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 081200.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 081118.png

[johngaltfla]

Maybe they should send a jet to test the ridge...


NOAA G-IV jet set to depart McDill 2pmEST tomorrow...

That's the data I want to hear about. Because if this ridge is stronger than estimated. I'm sure the models, etc. will change drastically. Also I'm thinking that this ridge will hold for a while and bring our state back into the ball game for the rest of August.

[jabber]

00z models

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

Only thing clear about that is Florida is not a target

[clfenwi]

00z models

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I believe that the only 00z models on that plot are the BAMs. It's way too early for the 00Z dynamic models to come out, as they require quite a bit of computing time vs. the crude calculations of the BAMs.

Yep, the global models on that map are 'interpolations'. They are adjustments of the 12Z forecasts (or in the case of GFDN/GFDL the 18Z run) for the current position. As such, they are not really new forecasts.

[CronkPSU]

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png">

[Frank P]

looks WNW to me...the center is SW of that convection

If the center is SW of that convection...then we have a very ill-organized system because the lower-mid-level center shows up clearly on the 37 GHZ as right in the middle of the convection with the low level center elongated to the west and WSW. So...if that's the case (which I don't think it is)...then the MLC and associated convection are going to leave a naked swirl in the next 6 hours or so...look at how the convection is moving...clearly NW...almost NNW but not quite.

Air Force Met... I was noticing the same thing, that the mid level appears to be heading off to the NW and Irene really has a bad stacking problem at the moment... I could not really discern the LLC off the IR all that well but what I did see looked moving off to the wnw... also the convection off the IR appears to be lessening at the moment... if this is the case... would it be possible for the LLC to move off to the west or west south west and be stirred by the lower level winds... and perhaps develop closer to florida, or would this be the final demise of Irene?? Or would the mid level continue and try to develop another LLC as it goes NNW and eventually recurves...

[Air Force Met]

I think the LLC is pretty close to what you see on the 37 GHZ...I just think it is elongated to the WSW...and since you can only see the low level flow outside of the convection (on the shortwave IR)...it looks like it's more SW than it is. You can see the lines on the 37 GHZ...and how open it is on that side. Now a classic structure. If (IF!) we had recon...this would be a moot point. We only have a few more minutes until we see what the NHC does with that 37 GHZ image...and I think they will probably talk about it...but will they re-locate the center to that position...because that will mean moving it NE of where they had it....and it will mean it is now moving NW...and not WNW.

[Scorpion]

I respect DT as he is a very good met, and for Irene he was generally right for his first call as a threat to the US.

[wayoutfront]

im telling you folks....watch for the models start shifting toward the carolinas.....listening to dt is very interesting...he says it WILL NOT recurve out to sea

I've defended DT a lot, but realize he CAN and IS wrong sometimes. That said, I continue to believe this will be a landfalling storm/

Floydbuster siad the same thing

about DT or about it being a landfalling storm?

I was listening...tuned him out I guess..but probably about a landfalling storm.

DT is wrong sometimes..like all mets are...but you definitely want to take him seriously.

If I remember corriectly DT NAILED Isabel, while everyone else was calling for it to go out sea.

I can't remeber the details, but believe he developed the ridge and no one else did

[deltadog03]

ok, here is my last obs for the night...
it looks like convection is really starting to die off right now...and i made a quick note on how the LLC was SW of the convection...if you look closely to me, it looks like that convection is moving NW will the southern half near the LLC is pushing WNW...good point to the one who said it...what does people think about this?