TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mahicks]

Can't get enough of GARP Definitely reveals whats likely leading to the various out to sea scenarios.

As you said, we shall see.

LOL...The world according to GARP?? Reminds me of that movie..

[deltadog03]

i would say the center looks like its near 26/66...looking at a zoomed in shortwave sat....i could be wrong but, it really looks like it is becoming naked as the mlc and convection continue to weaken and push nw...the llc seems to be moving wnw

[CronkPSU]

hmmmmm

11 pm advisory keeps things basically the same except for a slight change in the initial heading, NHC still won't commit to a landfall or fish and leave it off the cost at the end of the forecast

[ALhurricane]

I am disappointed in the discussion.

There was no mention of the microwave imagery at all. As AirForceMet said earlier, the LLC is likely close to where it was in the 37ghz imagery which means the NHC is way too far south.

[jkt21787]

I am disappointed in the discussion.

There was no mention of the microwave imagery at all. As AirForceMet said earlier, the LLC is likely close to where it was in the 37ghz imagery which means the NHC is way too far south.

I was also VERY surprised, and yes, disappointed that there was no mention of the microwave imagery, thats very significant, IMO.

[Sanibel]

Diurnal pulse down. Interpolate yesterday's pulse through today and the next pulse up should really flare. Moving into 85* waters now...

[superfly]

i would say the center looks like its near 26/66...looking at a zoomed in shortwave sat....i could be wrong but, it really looks like it is becoming naked as the mlc and convection continue to weaken and push nw...the llc seems to be moving wnw

I see that "feature" there but I don't think that's the LLC. I still see the circulation just SW of the main convection around 26/64.

[dwg71]

official track is ever so slightly east by .5 deg. 5pm had it at 35n 74.5w, now its 35n 74w. Still off shore. Still forecast to be a fish, though that could change.

Im sticking with fish. I think they have it two far south and will refix once recon gets in.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it will get to 35/75 then shoot north on the front side of the trough. Outterbanks to long island is in range. Since it will go up the gulf stream possible cat2.

[Sanibel]

The shortwave loop looks to have wobbled more west in the last frame.

(Please no chorus of wobble remarks )

[CronkPSU]

The shortwave loop looks to have wobbled more west in the last frame.

(Please no chorus of wobble remarks )

hey i started the NW wobble thing 5 hours ago and it went that way for a while, but that last frame definitely moved west, will be interesting if we see that continue for a few hours

[shaggy]

think the gulfstream data tomorrow will start to narrow it down and then w ewill have a better commitment from the NHC as to future track or threat

[Marilyn]

HIP HIP Hooray, she looks as though she will go away.. from NC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Don't worrie the models could shift back to NC.

[Marilyn]

Don't worrie the models could shift back to NC.

But Matt let me be worried free for at least another 6 hours or so. or when ever i wake up in the morning and check this storm out which is before i even go down stairs for coffee, yep thats when you have it bad when checking the systems come before the first cup .

[gkrangers]

Don't worrie the models could shift back to NC.

But Matt let me be worried free for at least another 6 hours or so. or when ever i wake up in the morning and check this storm out which is before i even go down stairs for coffee, yep thats when you have it bad when checking the systems come before the first cup .

Regardless of what the models do, NC is being seriously threatened. The models do not havea good handle on the situation at all..and really shouldn't be relied on heavily for the forecast.

Also, I think its funny that people are trying to define wobbles and eratic movements when we can't even fix a defined center yet, much less follow it accurately.

[Marilyn]

Don't worrie the models could shift back to NC.

But Matt let me be worried free for at least another 6 hours or so. or when ever i wake up in the morning and check this storm out which is before i even go down stairs for coffee, yep thats when you have it bad when checking the systems come before the first cup .

Regardless of what the models do, NC is being seriously threatened. The models do not havea good handle on the situation at all..and really shouldn't be relied on heavily for the forecast.

Also, I think its funny that people are trying to define wobbles and eratic movements when we can't even fix a defined center yet, much less follow it accurately.

I know the treat is still there . but with every update the more north she goes. I don't wish a storm on anyone been through several and my son almost lost his home in pensacola with Ivan. Lets hope tom morning she will Fish

[Derek Ortt]

Its NOT forecast to be a fish. Is New England not a part of the USA even, much less land, just as some dont count the islands?

[Hurricaneman]

Its NOT forecats to be a fish. Is New England not a part of the USA even, much less land, just as some dont count the islands?

Your right Derek, and I'm watching this very closely

[gkrangers]

Its NOT forecast to be a fish. Is New England not a part of the USA even, much less land, just as some dont count the islands?

So I take it you aren't on the sharp recurve train ?