what an irony

[tropicstorm]

NOAA and Dr. Gray have issued a serious upgrade in the number, frequency and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms this year - but, where is the activity? It's not that early anymore - tomorrow is August 12th and Saturday will be the anniversary of Charley. This season better pick up pretty soon - apparently, the experts know something for later in the season that I don't - but, it needs to build fairly soon or I'll be a disbeliever. What is going to change? At this hour, Irene is struggling again but is in is very warm SST's with lower shear. What's going on with this season?

[wxmann_91]

I don't know. I think Dr. Gray and NOAA jinxed it what would've been a record breaking hurricane season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on 2005 you can do it. Beat 1995. Wahoooooooooooooooo!!!

[Normandy]

Lets see......Aug 13 last year we had Charley.

Lets see....Aug 13 this year we have Irene.

Whats the issue?

[gilbert88]

There have been like what, three days without active storms since June...

I bet in two or three weeks everyone will be in "OMG I NEED SOME SLEEP" mode.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Emily?

[Hurricaneman]

Lets see......Aug 13 last year we had Charley.

Lets see....Aug 13 this year we have Emily.

Whats the issue?

That would be Irene not Emily, but its ok

[Normandy]

Emily?

Yea Irene, my bad

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If we don't get at least 2 more storms before the 22 of this month. 1995 wlll pull into the lead.

[SouthernWx]

NOAA and Dr. Gray have issued a serious upgrade in the number, frequency and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms this year - but, where is the activity? It's not that early anymore - tomorrow is August 12th and Saturday will be the anniversary of Charley. This season better pick up pretty soon - apparently, the experts know something for later in the season that I don't - but, it needs to build fairly soon or I'll be a disbeliever. What is going to change? At this hour, Irene is struggling again but is in is very warm SST's with lower shear. What's going on with this season?

What's going on with this record chasing season?....absolutely nothing. We're still on a record pace (most named storms ever BEFORE September 1st are 12).....I believe Irene could become a major hurricane and impact the southeast coast....and already see signs on the horizon that "all hurricane h@ll" is about to be unleashed.

Look at it this way friend....we're just now getting to the point (August 15th) when I normally start expecting an increase in tropical cyclone activity; the time in August when I first begin to normally look for potential major hurricanes. This year, there has already been two borderline cat-4/5 hurricanes (both landfalling as major hurricanes), and nine named storms....and the "real" major hurricane season is just now BEGINNING!!

You refer to Charley last August 13th....do you realize that Charley was the EARLIEST in the season landfalling major hurricane in Florida peninsula history? August major hurricanes are rare in central and southern Florida; climatologically October is far more likely to spawn a landfalling major hurricane into SoFla than August. It's honestly not even time for major Florida peninsula hurricanes yet.....that is normally September 1st through October 20th (hurricane Andrew was the first August landfalling major hurricane in SoFla since 1949....and only the 2nd since 1900 (and Charley the 3rd; only 3 in 105 years).

Yes, it's been "sorta" quiet the past couple weeks...and even during the "lull", we still witnessed two named storms. We're soon coming into a more favorable MJO pattern PLUS the normal climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.....I honestly expect bloody h#ll to erupt in the next 10-14 days and last well into October; and it could well rival or even exceed what we witnessed a decade ago. In 1995, the continental U.S. was only slammed by one major cane (Opal), with Luis and Marilyn devastating the northeast Caribbean. We've (U.S.A.) already been struck by 120 mph cat-3 Dennis....Irene has a good chance IMO of being U.S. major landfalling hurricane #2 of this season; and lord only knows what is coming down the pike....as we enter an ominous time of year when powerful hurricanes aren't rarities as Dennis and Emily were

Just my 0.02¢ worth...

PW

[Ivanhater]

NOAA and Dr. Gray have issued a serious upgrade in the number, frequency and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms this year - but, where is the activity? It's not that early anymore - tomorrow is August 12th and Saturday will be the anniversary of Charley. This season better pick up pretty soon - apparently, the experts know something for later in the season that I don't - but, it needs to build fairly soon or I'll be a disbeliever. What is going to change? At this hour, Irene is struggling again but is in is very warm SST's with lower shear. What's going on with this season?

What's going on with this record chasing season?....absolutely nothing. We're still on a record pace (most named storms ever BEFORE September 1st are 12).....I believe Irene could become a major hurricane and impact the southeast coast....and already see signs on the horizon that "all hurricane h@ll" is about to be unleashed.

Look at it this way friend....we're just now getting to the point (August 15th) when I normally start expecting an increase in tropical cyclone activity; the time in August when I first begin to normally look for potential major hurricanes. This year, there has already been two borderline cat-4/5 hurricanes (both landfalling as major hurricanes), and seven named storms....and the "real" major hurricane season is just now BEGINNING!!

You refer to Charley last August 13th....do you realize that Charley was the EARLIEST in the season landfalling major hurricane in Florida peninsula history? August major hurricanes are rare in central and southern Florida; climatologically October is far more likely to spawn a landfalling major hurricane into SoFla than August. It's honestly not even time for major Florida peninsula hurricanes yet.....that is normally September 1st through October 20th (hurricane Andrew was the first August landfalling major hurricane in SoFla since 1949....and only the 2nd since 1900 (and Charley the 3rd; only 3 in 105 years).

Yes, it's been "sorta" quiet the past couple weeks...and even during the "lull", we still witnessed two named storms. We're soon coming into a more favorable MJO pattern PLUS the normal climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.....I honestly expect bloody h#ll to erupt in the next 10-14 days and last well into October; and it could well rival or even exceed what we witnessed a decade ago. In 1995, the continental U.S. was only slammed by one major cane (Opal), with Luis and Marilyn devastating the northeast Caribbean. We've (U.S.A.) already been struck by 120 mph cat-3 Dennis....Irene has a good chance IMO be being U.S. major landfalling hurricane #2 of this season; and lord only knows what is coming down the pike....as we enter an ominous time of year when powerful hurricanes aren't rarities as Dennis and Emily were

Just my 0.02¢ worth...

PW

well put

[Swimdude]

I guess this would be a good time to ask what "MJO" means... Otherwise, excellent post up there!

[gatorcane]

there are no major Cape Verde waves coming off Africa that will develop anytime soon AND even if one did it would take about 2 weeks to reach the U.S...basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....it's looking like we won't hit the numbers that Dr. Gray predicted..not even close...

an active early season usually means a quiet later season.

[gilbert88]

there are no major Cape Verde waves coming off Africa that will develop anytime soon AND even if one did it would take about 2 weeks to reach the U.S...basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....it's looking like we won't hit the numbers that Dr. Gray predicted..not even close...

an active early season usually means a quiet later season.

I think "domestic" development will go nuts in late September.

[SouthernWx]

I guess this would be a good time to ask what "MJO" means... Otherwise, excellent post up there!

Thanks..

I'm not an expert on the MJO (Madden-Julian oscillation), but do know from experts such as cycloneye and Don Sutherland that we were in a MJO pattern favorable for hurricane development in the Atlantic basin back in mid June into mid July....but shifted into a unfavotable MJO pattern in late July that is apparently about to shift back to favorable again (during the latter half of August...and normally lasting 4-8 weeks).

PW

[gatorcane]

I think "domestic" development will go nuts in late September.

Yes, I think the GOM and Caribbean will be very hot in September and October...maybe a cape verde wave or two will develop but I'm looking at domestic at this point.

[Ivanhater]

basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....


care to back that up? read the new nhc outlook...we are WAY ahead of schedule and looks like we will stay that way as we are about to have more storms very soon

[gatorcane]

ivanhater the CV season is through the end of September. By October even if anything develops out there too many troughs and ULL dominate the Atlantic so a fish storm is more likely. September is the prime month for CV....and yes it IS possible that things will pick up in a couple of weeks.

[Steve]

>>Whats the issue?

Indeed.

But then again, this is America 2005. People vote based on soundbytes and outright lies (inviting anyone to factcheck.org and/or snopes.com next time you buy into an e-mail you're asked to pass on to 10 friends if you really [tm] do love God). Bubble-gum culture rules the day. People think McDonalds is good food and Budweiser is good beer. The average attention span is about 15 seconds. Gimmie. Gimmie. Gimmie.

/sign of the times

Steve

[Ivanhater]

ivanhater the CV season is through the end of September. By October even if anything develops out there too many troughs and ULL dominate the Atlantic so a fish storm is more likely. September is the prime month for CV....and yes it IS possible that things will pick up in a couple of weeks.

no you said cape verde season is 4 to 6 weeks away, last time i checked irene was a cape verde wave and the nhc is looking at another cape verde wave for development....so saying were behind on cape verde season is totally inaccurate and the predictions of a very active season will pan out